It seems like Bizzaro World, or something, for the first week of the NFL Playoffs. Not only are the Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons playing this week – the Falcons are even favoured! It’s quickly becoming cliché, but this is a rare playoff weekend where all four road teams are favoured.
Which is exactly how it should be.
Saturday games
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
Here’s a fun stat: The Cardinals point differencial (the difference between how many points they’ve allowed and how many they’ve scored) is just one. One single point. That’s gotta be some kind of record low for a team in the playoffs, let alone one with a home game. Still, they’re a team that can put up a ton of numbers.
And the Falcons will be a test. They’re a young team that’s never played a playoff game – and by simply making the playoffs, one could argue their season is already a success. Will they have the drive to win? Perhaps, but it’ll be close, so I’m taking the experience – I like the Cardinals in a shootout.
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers
On the heels of a crushing win over the Broncos, the Chargers look to be on an offensive roll – they’ve won their last four games. For the first time this season they look on the field like they do on paper. But a closer look reveals a weak defence that’s especially porous against the throw.
And if the Chargers are hot right now, the Colts are on fire; they’re the winners of their last nine games. I like Manning to have a big day against the Chargers’ defence while the Colts win big, by much more then the -2.5 points Vegas is giving them.
Sunday games
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Much like the Falcons, one could argue the Dolphins season is already a success; on the heels of their famed “Wildcat” offence, they’ve turned from a one-win team to winners of the AFC East, even beating the Patriots twice.
But for all of their offensive prowess lies a pretty average – tepid, even – defence. They’ve allowed a ton of yards against the pass, which is what will cost them here.
In fact, the only major question in my mind here is by how much: in their lone meeting with the Ravens, they were crushed 27-13, with Joe Flacco throwing 17 for 23 in the process. And since the Ravens have only improved since then, I think he’ll have a similar day, winning easily. Take the points on this, a line of just -2.5 for the Ravens just seems too small here.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings
Despite only making the playoffs by the barest of margins – they had to beat Dallas and need both Tampa Bay and Chicago to lose – the Eagles are a solid team and one that can easily sneak to the NFC Championship game. Why? They’ve got the best defence in the conference – and maybe in the league.
Yes, that’s right. Better then the Vikings defence. Better then the Giants. And maybe even better then Pittsburgh’s – they allowed only a few more points in a much better conference. I’d expect them to be able to handle Minnesota, which didn’t look all that good last week, when they played for a playoff spot.
Quick recap:
Cards, Colts, Ravens and Eagles.
Showing posts with label Indianapolis Colts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indianapolis Colts. Show all posts
Friday, January 02, 2009
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Quoth the Ravens? - Weekly NFL Notebook
Forgive the cliche, but these Baltimore Ravens, they're a weird team and they've got me all muddled up. First time all season I've seen them play and they disappoint, albeit against one of the best teams in the NFC, the Giants.
The phoneme rookie Joe Flacco, who was perfect for a stretch these past few weeks, came fast and sudden back to Earth, throwing two picks (one returned for a touchdown) while the vaunted Raven defence looked old and decrepit against the continual running attack of the Giants.
Take that 77 yard rush by Ahmad Bradshaw against at the start of the fourth: Lewis over-attacked his man and was woefully out of position. Bradshaw got a nice block and boom, hit a seam (or daylight, or whatever cliche you like most) and it was damn close to a touchdown.
So what happened to the Ravens defence? Up until that game, they were good against the run... but they couldn't make stops. The Giants line was carving into them, opening holes for both Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Their linebacking corps was thusly overworked - sometimes it looked as if they didn't know what to do. They bit early and found themselves attacking the line earlier.
Which helped him had a solid passing day (13 of 23, for 153 yards, one TD and one INT), but remember - it was the rushing that decided this game. It gave the Giants an early lead, helped them keep the Ravens off the field and was the major reason they won.
Where do they go from here? Down, way down. They’re six and four, but a bad six and four. They’ve already gotten to beat up on helpless teams like Cleveland, Cincinnati, Oakland and Houston. To my eyes, their only solid win was over Miami, back in October. One gets the idea that maybe they've already peaked as a team.
We'll soon find out if they're wheat of chaff, for here comes the hard part of their schedule: Philly, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Jacksonville. Four teams they'll be hard pressed to beat. It’s likely they’ll still finish second in the North, but it’s unlikely they’ll make the playoffs.
*****
Once again, Houston and Indianapolis had a wild shootout affair. And just like last time, it ended with a Houston miscue.
For reasons what I don't quite grasp, bottom-of-the-barrel Houston always comes out swinging against the Colts. In a game where defence meant almost nothing for the majority of the game, both teams racked up yardage and points: Houston had over 350 total yards and Indianapolis had 474 yards, with Payton Manning throwing for 320 of them.
Think about that: 320 passing yards. That's more then Oakland, Chicago or Cincinnati managed all day. That's a monster day, yet he only had two majors. One might think that he would have had more scores... but one would be wrong. You don't get that many yards without a strong running game, one that makes the linebackers cheat up and plug holes. And Joesph Addai's line for today (105 yards, one TD) reflects this.
Houston, on the other hand, had a more balanced game: 177 on the ground, 179 in the air. And although Rosenfels had a quiet day, he played well - except for his last drive. He completed 70% of his passes and helped engineer a good game for the Texans: they were outplayed on the other side of the ball by a wide, wide margin (nearly a ten minute difference in time of possession, for example) yet they were in the game right until the end.
But the end was the same as last time, although not quite as heartbreaking for Texan fans. Rosenfels was picked off, for the first time in the game, with just 38 seconds on the clock. But other then that, it was a good drive - quick outlet passes, moving the chains, not eating a lot of time of the clock.
All in all, it was fun game to watch. I like the Texans; they're a lot better then they get credit for. At least sometimes, anyway. In a year or two they could be a team to watch. And the Colts look like they're back. Forget the Titans being undefeated, the Colts have a good shot at the division in my books.
*****
A tough, physical game in Pittsburgh came to an odd close, with the league’s first 10-11 score. Pittsburgh looked good throughout, and the final score doesn’t reflect how well they did actually play.
It’s odd. With a low score, it’s easy to think this was a defensive battle. But it really wasn’t. It was a slogging kind of game, one where both teams went on long marches.
Ben Roethlisberger looked great for the first half, at one point throwing for something like 10 of 11. He finished the game with 31 completions and 308 yards.
But yet, their passing game was lacking: he didn’t throw for a major and was under constant pressure: he was sacked four times. The majority of his completions went to (no surprise) Hines Ward, who finished with 11 catches and 124 yards.
One might think that when the Steelers dominated so much that they’d have won easily. But it was a weird game: Pittsburgh was able to move around the field with ease, but didn’t get into the end zone all game, unless you count an early safety.
No, it was San Deigo, who despite having half the yards the Steelers did, a six minute difference in time of possession and a lousy game from Phillip Rivers (15 of 26, 159 yards and two INT) led for most of the game and led late.
It was all about LT on this snowy, ugly day in Pittsburgh. He scored the lone touchdown of the day, a three yard score up the middle, and it was the most important score of the day. LT spent a good chuck of the match pounding the ball up the middle, never for much, getting chunks of turf stuck to his helmet.
This was latest in a string of odd games for the Chargers, who seem to be getting more then their share of bad breaks this season. That missed call against Denver; a heartbreaking comeback by Carolina in week one; that surprising Miami upset, when the Dolphins broke out everything in the playbook.
The Chargers are now four and six, second in the AFC West. That’s two wins behind both Denver and anybody likely to win the wild card. But don’t count them out: they’ve only lost one game at home thus far – and four of their next six are at home. They can still bounce back.
*****
Other Notes: After jumping to the Cincinnati/Philadelphia game, Fox cut away again from an overtime game. When will the NFL realize that cutting to a close game, then cutting away as per some anarchic rules, doesn't serve make any sense? What's the point of going to going to it, getting the viewer invested in it, then leaving them hanging? I suppose there's the bonus aspect of it - but wouldn't going to an extended postgame show serve the viewer just as well? ... The Seahawks didn't play well, but they certainly took advantage of their chances: they scored three touchdowns on drives of less then 20 yards ... Somebody on the Raiders has to, absolutely has to show Jamarcus Russell how to manage a game. The Raiders last drive, where Russell hung around and watched time tick away was maybe the worst clock management I've seen this year. If the Raiders want him to pan out, they should really look to finding him a mentor, since he doesn't seem to be learning on the job… Can the Titans go undefeated? Who knows – their rushing game is looking atrophied, but their passing game is dynamic. Just when one thinks they’ve got them figured out (a clock controlling team that outsmarts you), they shift gears and become some other beast entirely. If I had to bet, though, they’ll lose two of their last three, when they let Collins rest up for the playoffs.
The phoneme rookie Joe Flacco, who was perfect for a stretch these past few weeks, came fast and sudden back to Earth, throwing two picks (one returned for a touchdown) while the vaunted Raven defence looked old and decrepit against the continual running attack of the Giants.
Take that 77 yard rush by Ahmad Bradshaw against at the start of the fourth: Lewis over-attacked his man and was woefully out of position. Bradshaw got a nice block and boom, hit a seam (or daylight, or whatever cliche you like most) and it was damn close to a touchdown.
So what happened to the Ravens defence? Up until that game, they were good against the run... but they couldn't make stops. The Giants line was carving into them, opening holes for both Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Their linebacking corps was thusly overworked - sometimes it looked as if they didn't know what to do. They bit early and found themselves attacking the line earlier.
Which helped him had a solid passing day (13 of 23, for 153 yards, one TD and one INT), but remember - it was the rushing that decided this game. It gave the Giants an early lead, helped them keep the Ravens off the field and was the major reason they won.
Where do they go from here? Down, way down. They’re six and four, but a bad six and four. They’ve already gotten to beat up on helpless teams like Cleveland, Cincinnati, Oakland and Houston. To my eyes, their only solid win was over Miami, back in October. One gets the idea that maybe they've already peaked as a team.
We'll soon find out if they're wheat of chaff, for here comes the hard part of their schedule: Philly, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Jacksonville. Four teams they'll be hard pressed to beat. It’s likely they’ll still finish second in the North, but it’s unlikely they’ll make the playoffs.
*****
Once again, Houston and Indianapolis had a wild shootout affair. And just like last time, it ended with a Houston miscue.
For reasons what I don't quite grasp, bottom-of-the-barrel Houston always comes out swinging against the Colts. In a game where defence meant almost nothing for the majority of the game, both teams racked up yardage and points: Houston had over 350 total yards and Indianapolis had 474 yards, with Payton Manning throwing for 320 of them.
Think about that: 320 passing yards. That's more then Oakland, Chicago or Cincinnati managed all day. That's a monster day, yet he only had two majors. One might think that he would have had more scores... but one would be wrong. You don't get that many yards without a strong running game, one that makes the linebackers cheat up and plug holes. And Joesph Addai's line for today (105 yards, one TD) reflects this.
Houston, on the other hand, had a more balanced game: 177 on the ground, 179 in the air. And although Rosenfels had a quiet day, he played well - except for his last drive. He completed 70% of his passes and helped engineer a good game for the Texans: they were outplayed on the other side of the ball by a wide, wide margin (nearly a ten minute difference in time of possession, for example) yet they were in the game right until the end.
But the end was the same as last time, although not quite as heartbreaking for Texan fans. Rosenfels was picked off, for the first time in the game, with just 38 seconds on the clock. But other then that, it was a good drive - quick outlet passes, moving the chains, not eating a lot of time of the clock.
All in all, it was fun game to watch. I like the Texans; they're a lot better then they get credit for. At least sometimes, anyway. In a year or two they could be a team to watch. And the Colts look like they're back. Forget the Titans being undefeated, the Colts have a good shot at the division in my books.
*****
A tough, physical game in Pittsburgh came to an odd close, with the league’s first 10-11 score. Pittsburgh looked good throughout, and the final score doesn’t reflect how well they did actually play.
It’s odd. With a low score, it’s easy to think this was a defensive battle. But it really wasn’t. It was a slogging kind of game, one where both teams went on long marches.
Ben Roethlisberger looked great for the first half, at one point throwing for something like 10 of 11. He finished the game with 31 completions and 308 yards.
But yet, their passing game was lacking: he didn’t throw for a major and was under constant pressure: he was sacked four times. The majority of his completions went to (no surprise) Hines Ward, who finished with 11 catches and 124 yards.
One might think that when the Steelers dominated so much that they’d have won easily. But it was a weird game: Pittsburgh was able to move around the field with ease, but didn’t get into the end zone all game, unless you count an early safety.
No, it was San Deigo, who despite having half the yards the Steelers did, a six minute difference in time of possession and a lousy game from Phillip Rivers (15 of 26, 159 yards and two INT) led for most of the game and led late.
It was all about LT on this snowy, ugly day in Pittsburgh. He scored the lone touchdown of the day, a three yard score up the middle, and it was the most important score of the day. LT spent a good chuck of the match pounding the ball up the middle, never for much, getting chunks of turf stuck to his helmet.
This was latest in a string of odd games for the Chargers, who seem to be getting more then their share of bad breaks this season. That missed call against Denver; a heartbreaking comeback by Carolina in week one; that surprising Miami upset, when the Dolphins broke out everything in the playbook.
The Chargers are now four and six, second in the AFC West. That’s two wins behind both Denver and anybody likely to win the wild card. But don’t count them out: they’ve only lost one game at home thus far – and four of their next six are at home. They can still bounce back.
*****
Other Notes: After jumping to the Cincinnati/Philadelphia game, Fox cut away again from an overtime game. When will the NFL realize that cutting to a close game, then cutting away as per some anarchic rules, doesn't serve make any sense? What's the point of going to going to it, getting the viewer invested in it, then leaving them hanging? I suppose there's the bonus aspect of it - but wouldn't going to an extended postgame show serve the viewer just as well? ... The Seahawks didn't play well, but they certainly took advantage of their chances: they scored three touchdowns on drives of less then 20 yards ... Somebody on the Raiders has to, absolutely has to show Jamarcus Russell how to manage a game. The Raiders last drive, where Russell hung around and watched time tick away was maybe the worst clock management I've seen this year. If the Raiders want him to pan out, they should really look to finding him a mentor, since he doesn't seem to be learning on the job… Can the Titans go undefeated? Who knows – their rushing game is looking atrophied, but their passing game is dynamic. Just when one thinks they’ve got them figured out (a clock controlling team that outsmarts you), they shift gears and become some other beast entirely. If I had to bet, though, they’ll lose two of their last three, when they let Collins rest up for the playoffs.
Friday, February 02, 2007
Tell your QB rating to shut up, Rex
It’s a Friday night, the Super Bowl is something like 72 hours away and I still cannot make up my mind about who is going to win. Will Payton Manning find a way past maybe the best defence in the NFL? Will the Colts find a way to shut down another great team with a great tandem of halfbacks?
More importantly – will Rex Grossman find a way to shut up his critics?
He enters this 41st Super Bowl game as maybe the most criticized starting quarterback since Joe Nameth. He has been chided on all sides for his inconstant play all season lone – from his infamous game against the Vikings on week 13 (1.3 QB rating, 31 completion percentage, 34 yards passing) to a brilliant game against the Giants on week 10 (3 TD, 246 yards, 105.7 rating).
Yes, he’s not the best QB in the league (not even close, I’ll admit). His play in the playoffs has been, well, spotty – two touchdowns in two games, only competing half of his passes, etc). But you know what? I believe in him.
And why shouldn’t I believe in him? It’s not a matter of him being good or bad – that doesn’t matter. He doesn’t need to be good to win games – just like he’s proven all year long. He has been exceptionally good this season and he’s been exceptionally bad this season – and still, the Bears won 13 games in the regular season and two more in the playoffs. Sure, he’s not as good as Payton Manning – but when his team is as good as it is, he doesn’t need to be (although, imagine if he was – what a team that would be, eh?).
Right now, Chicago is leading all teams in rushing yards per game (158) and points per game (33). While Indianapolis does have a good rush defence, they also allowed a big rushing day against New England – a team who’s running game is nowhere near as good as Chicago’s. Despite having a big advantage, statistically, over New England (they held the ball for more five more minutes, had almost twice as many first downs and had over 100 more yards offensively) they just squeaked out a win.
And that was against a team that finished the season tied with them (12-4) and scored almost 100 points less then them (New England scored 385 points, Indianapolis 427).
The Bears won more games (13-3), scored just as many points (427) and allowed more then 100 points less against them (255) then the Colts – clearly they’re just as good, if not better… So why are they seven point underdogs to a team that just barely beat New England?
I have no idea.
And that’s why I’m taking the Bears to win Super Bowl XLI.
More importantly – will Rex Grossman find a way to shut up his critics?
He enters this 41st Super Bowl game as maybe the most criticized starting quarterback since Joe Nameth. He has been chided on all sides for his inconstant play all season lone – from his infamous game against the Vikings on week 13 (1.3 QB rating, 31 completion percentage, 34 yards passing) to a brilliant game against the Giants on week 10 (3 TD, 246 yards, 105.7 rating).
Yes, he’s not the best QB in the league (not even close, I’ll admit). His play in the playoffs has been, well, spotty – two touchdowns in two games, only competing half of his passes, etc). But you know what? I believe in him.
And why shouldn’t I believe in him? It’s not a matter of him being good or bad – that doesn’t matter. He doesn’t need to be good to win games – just like he’s proven all year long. He has been exceptionally good this season and he’s been exceptionally bad this season – and still, the Bears won 13 games in the regular season and two more in the playoffs. Sure, he’s not as good as Payton Manning – but when his team is as good as it is, he doesn’t need to be (although, imagine if he was – what a team that would be, eh?).
Right now, Chicago is leading all teams in rushing yards per game (158) and points per game (33). While Indianapolis does have a good rush defence, they also allowed a big rushing day against New England – a team who’s running game is nowhere near as good as Chicago’s. Despite having a big advantage, statistically, over New England (they held the ball for more five more minutes, had almost twice as many first downs and had over 100 more yards offensively) they just squeaked out a win.
And that was against a team that finished the season tied with them (12-4) and scored almost 100 points less then them (New England scored 385 points, Indianapolis 427).
The Bears won more games (13-3), scored just as many points (427) and allowed more then 100 points less against them (255) then the Colts – clearly they’re just as good, if not better… So why are they seven point underdogs to a team that just barely beat New England?
I have no idea.
And that’s why I’m taking the Bears to win Super Bowl XLI.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Was it worth it? - Thoughts on the AFC Championship
The Colts / Patriots game on Sunday was the reason why we have channels like ESPN Classic. A roller coaster ride doesn't even begin to describe that game - even a fan like me, who happens to have a strong dislike of both teams (In Payton's case, this dislike evolves into hatred) was enticed by this game: It surely will rank as one of the best games in NFL history.
For a season that has been inconsistent and, well, weird all year long, this was strangely fitting.. The Colts AFC season ended with them finally making it to a Super Bowl by beating one of their biggest rivals (although they still can't get by the Steelers - not in 1995, not last year…) in New England, although it was at home.
And yet this game left me feeling angry on some level - it was almost infuriating to see Payton being unable to look on the field during the final drive, keeping his head under a towel. It gave me flashbacks to Roger Clemens in the 1986 World Series, with what Bill Simmons once described as a “What now” face…
But then it was over, and Payton, for once, was happy in January.
And it seemed to fit - for one of the most oddball seasons that I can remember, one of the most oddball endings more or less ended it: Payton Manning, the hero of a Colts/Pats playoff and Tom Brady not being able to pull off a final drive.
Still, what a way to end the year.
For a season that has been inconsistent and, well, weird all year long, this was strangely fitting.. The Colts AFC season ended with them finally making it to a Super Bowl by beating one of their biggest rivals (although they still can't get by the Steelers - not in 1995, not last year…) in New England, although it was at home.
And yet this game left me feeling angry on some level - it was almost infuriating to see Payton being unable to look on the field during the final drive, keeping his head under a towel. It gave me flashbacks to Roger Clemens in the 1986 World Series, with what Bill Simmons once described as a “What now” face…
But then it was over, and Payton, for once, was happy in January.
And it seemed to fit - for one of the most oddball seasons that I can remember, one of the most oddball endings more or less ended it: Payton Manning, the hero of a Colts/Pats playoff and Tom Brady not being able to pull off a final drive.
Still, what a way to end the year.
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Championship weekend - It's gunna be a showdown
It was an outcome that should have been obvious from the start – If indeed the Indianapolis Colts are to go to the Super Bowl, they would only have to go through their old nemesis the New England Patriots.
This whole season kind of makes sense now.
With both AFC teams upsetting their opponents last week – neither home team won – the stage is now set for what appears to be one of the biggest games in recent memory. The Colts, despite having a great offense, could barely manage to score last week and won by the skin of their teeth; conversely, the Patriots did score, coming back from being down 21-14 late in the game, and upsetting a team with maybe the best offense in the NFL.
It’ll be a showdown in Indy on Sunday – and for once, maybe the Colts will have the upper hand.
“Bad dreamer, what's your name
Looks like we're ridin' on the same train
Looks as through there'll be more pain
There's gonna be a Showdown”
ELO - Showdown
AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Sez: Colts (+3)
This will be the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs in recent memory. Both of those games were losses for the Colts – but both teams are in different stages now. The Patriots are in arguably their worst shape in years, having lost major contributors, from coordinators Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini to players like David Givens, Doug Gabriel and – and arguably most important – their clutch kicker Adam Vinitari.
You can see how losing key players such as those has effected the Patriots offense this season – Since posting close to 600 offensive yards (5722) and averaging 27 points per game in 2004 (their last Super Bowl win), their offense has dropped: just over 5600 yards/23 points per game in 2005 and 5300 yards/24 points per game this season.
Defensively, however, they have improved: for example, their yards allowed (on a per game basis) has dropped from 310 in 2004 to 330 last season – but has rose to 294 this year, the same as Chicago’s mighty defence allows. They rush defence has improved as well, going from 98 yards a game in 2004 to 94 yards this year (much better then Chicago). And against the pass they’ve gone from 212 yards/game to 200 – which could prove to be a hassle to the Colts, who are still a pass heavy team.
Speaking of the Colts, they are actually much better team then the one that lost to the Patriots on 2004. This year, with both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne posting big numbers – Wayne has caught 9 TD this year and is averaging 15 yards a catch while Harrison has caught 12 touchdowns (second in the league) and is averaging 14 yards a catch – their offense is one of the most productive in the NFL (3rd in yards per game, 2nd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards).
But while both of their major receivers have caught for more then 1300 yards (Harrison is ranked #2 in the NFL, while Wayne is tied for third), their running game is lacking behind (18th in the NFL with just 110 yards per game).
It’s pretty much for that reason alone that I’m going to back the Patriots. Even though the Colts are at home; even though the Colts are playing much better; even though the Colts are the 3 point favorites… They are still playing the Patriots in January.
My pick: New England
*************************
NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Vegas sez: Chicago (+ 2)
The Bears defence has been great this year – perhaps even superb, especially when it covers for Rex Grossman’s occasional bad game – and their offense isn’t too bad, either, ranking 15th in both total yards and rushing yards, thanks to the duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. Their passing game is somewhat better, ranking 14th, explaining why they score 26 points/game (higher then New Orleans, actually).
Which isn’t to say that New Orleans isn’t any good – they very much are. But while they have a great offense (they have the most total yards, most passing yards and are fifth in points scored per game), defensively they’re weak. They rank ranking 15th in total yards allowed (4917), 23rd in rushing yards allowed (2063) and 13th in points allowed per game (20.1). If they have one bright spot on their defense, it’s against the pass – they rank 3rd overall, with 174 yards a game.
Still, against a Chicago team that is more dangerous because of a powerhouse defense and a solid running game, the Saints have a bit of a chance – but not a big one. The Bears will win this one and play in their first Super Bowl since 1985.
My pick: The Bears
This whole season kind of makes sense now.
With both AFC teams upsetting their opponents last week – neither home team won – the stage is now set for what appears to be one of the biggest games in recent memory. The Colts, despite having a great offense, could barely manage to score last week and won by the skin of their teeth; conversely, the Patriots did score, coming back from being down 21-14 late in the game, and upsetting a team with maybe the best offense in the NFL.
It’ll be a showdown in Indy on Sunday – and for once, maybe the Colts will have the upper hand.
“Bad dreamer, what's your name
Looks like we're ridin' on the same train
Looks as through there'll be more pain
There's gonna be a Showdown”
ELO - Showdown
AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Sez: Colts (+3)
This will be the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs in recent memory. Both of those games were losses for the Colts – but both teams are in different stages now. The Patriots are in arguably their worst shape in years, having lost major contributors, from coordinators Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini to players like David Givens, Doug Gabriel and – and arguably most important – their clutch kicker Adam Vinitari.
You can see how losing key players such as those has effected the Patriots offense this season – Since posting close to 600 offensive yards (5722) and averaging 27 points per game in 2004 (their last Super Bowl win), their offense has dropped: just over 5600 yards/23 points per game in 2005 and 5300 yards/24 points per game this season.
Defensively, however, they have improved: for example, their yards allowed (on a per game basis) has dropped from 310 in 2004 to 330 last season – but has rose to 294 this year, the same as Chicago’s mighty defence allows. They rush defence has improved as well, going from 98 yards a game in 2004 to 94 yards this year (much better then Chicago). And against the pass they’ve gone from 212 yards/game to 200 – which could prove to be a hassle to the Colts, who are still a pass heavy team.
Speaking of the Colts, they are actually much better team then the one that lost to the Patriots on 2004. This year, with both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne posting big numbers – Wayne has caught 9 TD this year and is averaging 15 yards a catch while Harrison has caught 12 touchdowns (second in the league) and is averaging 14 yards a catch – their offense is one of the most productive in the NFL (3rd in yards per game, 2nd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards).
But while both of their major receivers have caught for more then 1300 yards (Harrison is ranked #2 in the NFL, while Wayne is tied for third), their running game is lacking behind (18th in the NFL with just 110 yards per game).
It’s pretty much for that reason alone that I’m going to back the Patriots. Even though the Colts are at home; even though the Colts are playing much better; even though the Colts are the 3 point favorites… They are still playing the Patriots in January.
My pick: New England
*************************
NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Vegas sez: Chicago (+ 2)
The Bears defence has been great this year – perhaps even superb, especially when it covers for Rex Grossman’s occasional bad game – and their offense isn’t too bad, either, ranking 15th in both total yards and rushing yards, thanks to the duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. Their passing game is somewhat better, ranking 14th, explaining why they score 26 points/game (higher then New Orleans, actually).
Which isn’t to say that New Orleans isn’t any good – they very much are. But while they have a great offense (they have the most total yards, most passing yards and are fifth in points scored per game), defensively they’re weak. They rank ranking 15th in total yards allowed (4917), 23rd in rushing yards allowed (2063) and 13th in points allowed per game (20.1). If they have one bright spot on their defense, it’s against the pass – they rank 3rd overall, with 174 yards a game.
Still, against a Chicago team that is more dangerous because of a powerhouse defense and a solid running game, the Saints have a bit of a chance – but not a big one. The Bears will win this one and play in their first Super Bowl since 1985.
My pick: The Bears
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