The Colts / Patriots game on Sunday was the reason why we have channels like ESPN Classic. A roller coaster ride doesn't even begin to describe that game - even a fan like me, who happens to have a strong dislike of both teams (In Payton's case, this dislike evolves into hatred) was enticed by this game: It surely will rank as one of the best games in NFL history.
For a season that has been inconsistent and, well, weird all year long, this was strangely fitting.. The Colts AFC season ended with them finally making it to a Super Bowl by beating one of their biggest rivals (although they still can't get by the Steelers - not in 1995, not last year…) in New England, although it was at home.
And yet this game left me feeling angry on some level - it was almost infuriating to see Payton being unable to look on the field during the final drive, keeping his head under a towel. It gave me flashbacks to Roger Clemens in the 1986 World Series, with what Bill Simmons once described as a “What now” face…
But then it was over, and Payton, for once, was happy in January.
And it seemed to fit - for one of the most oddball seasons that I can remember, one of the most oddball endings more or less ended it: Payton Manning, the hero of a Colts/Pats playoff and Tom Brady not being able to pull off a final drive.
Still, what a way to end the year.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Championship weekend - It's gunna be a showdown
It was an outcome that should have been obvious from the start – If indeed the Indianapolis Colts are to go to the Super Bowl, they would only have to go through their old nemesis the New England Patriots.
This whole season kind of makes sense now.
With both AFC teams upsetting their opponents last week – neither home team won – the stage is now set for what appears to be one of the biggest games in recent memory. The Colts, despite having a great offense, could barely manage to score last week and won by the skin of their teeth; conversely, the Patriots did score, coming back from being down 21-14 late in the game, and upsetting a team with maybe the best offense in the NFL.
It’ll be a showdown in Indy on Sunday – and for once, maybe the Colts will have the upper hand.
“Bad dreamer, what's your name
Looks like we're ridin' on the same train
Looks as through there'll be more pain
There's gonna be a Showdown”
ELO - Showdown
AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Sez: Colts (+3)
This will be the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs in recent memory. Both of those games were losses for the Colts – but both teams are in different stages now. The Patriots are in arguably their worst shape in years, having lost major contributors, from coordinators Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini to players like David Givens, Doug Gabriel and – and arguably most important – their clutch kicker Adam Vinitari.
You can see how losing key players such as those has effected the Patriots offense this season – Since posting close to 600 offensive yards (5722) and averaging 27 points per game in 2004 (their last Super Bowl win), their offense has dropped: just over 5600 yards/23 points per game in 2005 and 5300 yards/24 points per game this season.
Defensively, however, they have improved: for example, their yards allowed (on a per game basis) has dropped from 310 in 2004 to 330 last season – but has rose to 294 this year, the same as Chicago’s mighty defence allows. They rush defence has improved as well, going from 98 yards a game in 2004 to 94 yards this year (much better then Chicago). And against the pass they’ve gone from 212 yards/game to 200 – which could prove to be a hassle to the Colts, who are still a pass heavy team.
Speaking of the Colts, they are actually much better team then the one that lost to the Patriots on 2004. This year, with both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne posting big numbers – Wayne has caught 9 TD this year and is averaging 15 yards a catch while Harrison has caught 12 touchdowns (second in the league) and is averaging 14 yards a catch – their offense is one of the most productive in the NFL (3rd in yards per game, 2nd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards).
But while both of their major receivers have caught for more then 1300 yards (Harrison is ranked #2 in the NFL, while Wayne is tied for third), their running game is lacking behind (18th in the NFL with just 110 yards per game).
It’s pretty much for that reason alone that I’m going to back the Patriots. Even though the Colts are at home; even though the Colts are playing much better; even though the Colts are the 3 point favorites… They are still playing the Patriots in January.
My pick: New England
*************************
NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Vegas sez: Chicago (+ 2)
The Bears defence has been great this year – perhaps even superb, especially when it covers for Rex Grossman’s occasional bad game – and their offense isn’t too bad, either, ranking 15th in both total yards and rushing yards, thanks to the duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. Their passing game is somewhat better, ranking 14th, explaining why they score 26 points/game (higher then New Orleans, actually).
Which isn’t to say that New Orleans isn’t any good – they very much are. But while they have a great offense (they have the most total yards, most passing yards and are fifth in points scored per game), defensively they’re weak. They rank ranking 15th in total yards allowed (4917), 23rd in rushing yards allowed (2063) and 13th in points allowed per game (20.1). If they have one bright spot on their defense, it’s against the pass – they rank 3rd overall, with 174 yards a game.
Still, against a Chicago team that is more dangerous because of a powerhouse defense and a solid running game, the Saints have a bit of a chance – but not a big one. The Bears will win this one and play in their first Super Bowl since 1985.
My pick: The Bears
This whole season kind of makes sense now.
With both AFC teams upsetting their opponents last week – neither home team won – the stage is now set for what appears to be one of the biggest games in recent memory. The Colts, despite having a great offense, could barely manage to score last week and won by the skin of their teeth; conversely, the Patriots did score, coming back from being down 21-14 late in the game, and upsetting a team with maybe the best offense in the NFL.
It’ll be a showdown in Indy on Sunday – and for once, maybe the Colts will have the upper hand.
“Bad dreamer, what's your name
Looks like we're ridin' on the same train
Looks as through there'll be more pain
There's gonna be a Showdown”
ELO - Showdown
AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Sez: Colts (+3)
This will be the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs in recent memory. Both of those games were losses for the Colts – but both teams are in different stages now. The Patriots are in arguably their worst shape in years, having lost major contributors, from coordinators Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini to players like David Givens, Doug Gabriel and – and arguably most important – their clutch kicker Adam Vinitari.
You can see how losing key players such as those has effected the Patriots offense this season – Since posting close to 600 offensive yards (5722) and averaging 27 points per game in 2004 (their last Super Bowl win), their offense has dropped: just over 5600 yards/23 points per game in 2005 and 5300 yards/24 points per game this season.
Defensively, however, they have improved: for example, their yards allowed (on a per game basis) has dropped from 310 in 2004 to 330 last season – but has rose to 294 this year, the same as Chicago’s mighty defence allows. They rush defence has improved as well, going from 98 yards a game in 2004 to 94 yards this year (much better then Chicago). And against the pass they’ve gone from 212 yards/game to 200 – which could prove to be a hassle to the Colts, who are still a pass heavy team.
Speaking of the Colts, they are actually much better team then the one that lost to the Patriots on 2004. This year, with both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne posting big numbers – Wayne has caught 9 TD this year and is averaging 15 yards a catch while Harrison has caught 12 touchdowns (second in the league) and is averaging 14 yards a catch – their offense is one of the most productive in the NFL (3rd in yards per game, 2nd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards).
But while both of their major receivers have caught for more then 1300 yards (Harrison is ranked #2 in the NFL, while Wayne is tied for third), their running game is lacking behind (18th in the NFL with just 110 yards per game).
It’s pretty much for that reason alone that I’m going to back the Patriots. Even though the Colts are at home; even though the Colts are playing much better; even though the Colts are the 3 point favorites… They are still playing the Patriots in January.
My pick: New England
*************************
NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Vegas sez: Chicago (+ 2)
The Bears defence has been great this year – perhaps even superb, especially when it covers for Rex Grossman’s occasional bad game – and their offense isn’t too bad, either, ranking 15th in both total yards and rushing yards, thanks to the duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. Their passing game is somewhat better, ranking 14th, explaining why they score 26 points/game (higher then New Orleans, actually).
Which isn’t to say that New Orleans isn’t any good – they very much are. But while they have a great offense (they have the most total yards, most passing yards and are fifth in points scored per game), defensively they’re weak. They rank ranking 15th in total yards allowed (4917), 23rd in rushing yards allowed (2063) and 13th in points allowed per game (20.1). If they have one bright spot on their defense, it’s against the pass – they rank 3rd overall, with 174 yards a game.
Still, against a Chicago team that is more dangerous because of a powerhouse defense and a solid running game, the Saints have a bit of a chance – but not a big one. The Bears will win this one and play in their first Super Bowl since 1985.
My pick: The Bears
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Romo and the Boys / NFL Divisional predictions
Stat of the Week No. 3: From the point Tony Romo was named to the Pro Bowl, Dallas lost all remaining games.
- Greg Esterbrook, ESPN.com, Jan. 9, 2007
As Tony Romo attempted to scramble into the end zone, the Cowboys season flashed before my eyes. I saw Drew Bledsoe choking; I saw Terrell Owens denying that he attempted suicide; I saw Keyshawn Johnson leaving under a cloud; I saw Tony Romo show flashes of brilliance between his flashes of incompetence.
And as he couldn’t make it into the end zone… Well, frankly, I wasn’t surprised. It seemed so typical of the Cowboys this year – to get so close, but finish just oh-so-short.
From their regular season when Bledsoe went down for the count and a young hotshot named Tony Romo, who despite having been in the NFL for a few years (could it be three already?) had never having taken a snap, came in and was fairly solid – even though my main memory will be of him making a pass that looked quite like Magic’s hook shot in game four of the ’87 Finals – and became something of a golden boy, a savior to a Cowboys team that looked ready to sink at any given moment.
And he saved them from sinking, at least for a little while. From the spats that coach Parcells had with Terrell Owens and Mike Vanderjact to a starting QB (Bledsoe) and one of their major off-season signings (Vanderjact) not working out to TO being, well, himself, it looked as if the Cowboys were going to have hard time going .500, at least for a while.
When Romo took over in week 6 the Cowboys were 3-2. In his next start, facing the Giants, the Cowboys lost – and then Romo started to click. He, and the Cowboys, won the next five out of six games. With him at the helm, the Cowboys went on a tear, cumulating with a 38-10 demolition of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where Romo threw for 5 touchdowns and over 300 yards.
But, looking back, that seems to be just where both he and Cowboys peaked. The next week, against the Giants, the Cowboys just squeeked past them, winning on a last second field goal; and while Romo passed for over 250 yards, he didn’t pass for a single TD and was picked off twice.
The next week the Cowboys lost to New Orleans, 42-17. Romo was picked off twice again and completed less then half his passes.
For all of his early wins, since that win over the Giants, Romo has passed for six touchdowns and has been picked off eight times. He’s lost more games then he’s won since he was named to the NFL Pro Bowl – and lost 3 of his last four games this season.
So, what does all this mean? Is Romo really that good – or is he really that much of a goat? I’m not sure, at least not yet. I do know, however, that any Cowboy fan can thank Romo for getting the Cowboys to the playoffs just as much as they can thank him for their early exit.
*********
NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions:
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
My pick: The Saints
If there’s one thing that I’m sure about these days, it’s that I wouldn’t want to be coaching a team that’s on the road against a team like the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have won 5 out of 8 games at home this year. However, they have lost two of their last three at home (their last win being on December 3rd, over San Francisco). Still, they have a great offence (391 yards per game, 25.8 points per game) that’s facing a defence that allows over 320 yards and over 20 points a game. Even with all of the question marks that the Saints have, I just can’t see the Eagles upsetting them, even if the Eagles were at home.
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
My pick: Dah Bears
And speaking of teams that are good at home, we have the Chicago Bears and their frozen Soldier Field vs. the Seahawks. Normally I’d go with the Bears just because of their home-field advantage and their defence. However, Rex Grossman, who has been looking better and better as the season goes on (his week 13 performance notwithstanding) is facing a Seattle defence that is, well, less then stellar. He’ll need a big game to beat the Seahawks, but I expect he’ll come through.
AFC
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
My pick: The Colts
This is the first time that the Colts have been to Baltimore to play a postseason game in years – not since they left the city, in fact – and they won’t disappoint. For all of their question marks coming into the postseason – their run defence, for example – they have looked very good, especially in their shutdown of the Kansas City Chiefs last week. This is a trend that I expect to continue, as they should wallop the Ravens. Why? The Ravens are a team that’s been led by Steve McNair, who while rebounding from his last few seasons is still no match for the Colts defence. And as for their defence, led by Ray Lewis, the Colts are again more then a match – The Colts lead the AFC in yards per game (379) and are second in points per game (26). Receivers Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison have looked good lately (especially Harrison, who had six touchdown catches in his last three regular season games).
New England Patriots @ San Deigo Chargers
My pick: The Chargers
The Chargers are the mirror image of the Colts; they rank second in yards per game (365) and first in points per game (30). And they have the best player in the NFL, LaDainian Tomlinson, doing most of it: he runs for touchdowns, he catches for touchdowns – he even throws for touchdowns. Thanks to him, the Chargers have only lost two games – by a combined six points. The Patriots will have to pretty much focus their entire defence on LT to stop him – and by doing so, they open the door for quarterback Drew Rivers, who has thrown for 22 touchdowns this year, and Antonio Gates, who has caught nine of them. It’ll be tough to keep the Chargers from running away with this game, and I’m sure that Tom Brady will be more then game for it. He comes into this game having one of he better seasons: yardage is down, but his completion percentage is up. And he’s facing a defence that allows over 200 passing yards a game. Regardless, I think that San Diego will be able to eke this one out. However, it’ll be close.
- Greg Esterbrook, ESPN.com, Jan. 9, 2007
As Tony Romo attempted to scramble into the end zone, the Cowboys season flashed before my eyes. I saw Drew Bledsoe choking; I saw Terrell Owens denying that he attempted suicide; I saw Keyshawn Johnson leaving under a cloud; I saw Tony Romo show flashes of brilliance between his flashes of incompetence.
And as he couldn’t make it into the end zone… Well, frankly, I wasn’t surprised. It seemed so typical of the Cowboys this year – to get so close, but finish just oh-so-short.
From their regular season when Bledsoe went down for the count and a young hotshot named Tony Romo, who despite having been in the NFL for a few years (could it be three already?) had never having taken a snap, came in and was fairly solid – even though my main memory will be of him making a pass that looked quite like Magic’s hook shot in game four of the ’87 Finals – and became something of a golden boy, a savior to a Cowboys team that looked ready to sink at any given moment.
And he saved them from sinking, at least for a little while. From the spats that coach Parcells had with Terrell Owens and Mike Vanderjact to a starting QB (Bledsoe) and one of their major off-season signings (Vanderjact) not working out to TO being, well, himself, it looked as if the Cowboys were going to have hard time going .500, at least for a while.
When Romo took over in week 6 the Cowboys were 3-2. In his next start, facing the Giants, the Cowboys lost – and then Romo started to click. He, and the Cowboys, won the next five out of six games. With him at the helm, the Cowboys went on a tear, cumulating with a 38-10 demolition of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where Romo threw for 5 touchdowns and over 300 yards.
But, looking back, that seems to be just where both he and Cowboys peaked. The next week, against the Giants, the Cowboys just squeeked past them, winning on a last second field goal; and while Romo passed for over 250 yards, he didn’t pass for a single TD and was picked off twice.
The next week the Cowboys lost to New Orleans, 42-17. Romo was picked off twice again and completed less then half his passes.
For all of his early wins, since that win over the Giants, Romo has passed for six touchdowns and has been picked off eight times. He’s lost more games then he’s won since he was named to the NFL Pro Bowl – and lost 3 of his last four games this season.
So, what does all this mean? Is Romo really that good – or is he really that much of a goat? I’m not sure, at least not yet. I do know, however, that any Cowboy fan can thank Romo for getting the Cowboys to the playoffs just as much as they can thank him for their early exit.
*********
NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions:
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
My pick: The Saints
If there’s one thing that I’m sure about these days, it’s that I wouldn’t want to be coaching a team that’s on the road against a team like the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have won 5 out of 8 games at home this year. However, they have lost two of their last three at home (their last win being on December 3rd, over San Francisco). Still, they have a great offence (391 yards per game, 25.8 points per game) that’s facing a defence that allows over 320 yards and over 20 points a game. Even with all of the question marks that the Saints have, I just can’t see the Eagles upsetting them, even if the Eagles were at home.
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
My pick: Dah Bears
And speaking of teams that are good at home, we have the Chicago Bears and their frozen Soldier Field vs. the Seahawks. Normally I’d go with the Bears just because of their home-field advantage and their defence. However, Rex Grossman, who has been looking better and better as the season goes on (his week 13 performance notwithstanding) is facing a Seattle defence that is, well, less then stellar. He’ll need a big game to beat the Seahawks, but I expect he’ll come through.
AFC
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
My pick: The Colts
This is the first time that the Colts have been to Baltimore to play a postseason game in years – not since they left the city, in fact – and they won’t disappoint. For all of their question marks coming into the postseason – their run defence, for example – they have looked very good, especially in their shutdown of the Kansas City Chiefs last week. This is a trend that I expect to continue, as they should wallop the Ravens. Why? The Ravens are a team that’s been led by Steve McNair, who while rebounding from his last few seasons is still no match for the Colts defence. And as for their defence, led by Ray Lewis, the Colts are again more then a match – The Colts lead the AFC in yards per game (379) and are second in points per game (26). Receivers Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison have looked good lately (especially Harrison, who had six touchdown catches in his last three regular season games).
New England Patriots @ San Deigo Chargers
My pick: The Chargers
The Chargers are the mirror image of the Colts; they rank second in yards per game (365) and first in points per game (30). And they have the best player in the NFL, LaDainian Tomlinson, doing most of it: he runs for touchdowns, he catches for touchdowns – he even throws for touchdowns. Thanks to him, the Chargers have only lost two games – by a combined six points. The Patriots will have to pretty much focus their entire defence on LT to stop him – and by doing so, they open the door for quarterback Drew Rivers, who has thrown for 22 touchdowns this year, and Antonio Gates, who has caught nine of them. It’ll be tough to keep the Chargers from running away with this game, and I’m sure that Tom Brady will be more then game for it. He comes into this game having one of he better seasons: yardage is down, but his completion percentage is up. And he’s facing a defence that allows over 200 passing yards a game. Regardless, I think that San Diego will be able to eke this one out. However, it’ll be close.
Saturday, January 06, 2007
Wild Card Weekend
The resignation of Bill Cower is the end of an era for the Steelers, and it’s the end of an era for me. Bill was the one coach of the Steelers that I can remember, the guy who was there in 1995 during a thriller in Indy… The guy who was there for the Kordell Stewart Era, the guy who was there during heartbreaking losses in 2003 and 2004 – and he was the guy who was there when they finally won it all least year, too.
Sure, this season’s been a bust (I like to call it a transition period – Bettis and Randel El are gone and Big Ben had maybe the unluckiest season of any starting QB this decade), but it was still good. So, Bill, thanks for the memories and best luck with whatever comes next.
With that out of the way, the NFL playoffs are upon us once again – which means that it’s time to get out of New England’s way again (especially since they have home field this year) and that the countdown is on for Colts fans to start sulking. And with that, here’s my predictions for Wild Card Weekend!
NFC
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks
My pick: Seahawks
The Seahawks, despite more then enough injuries to it’s starters (Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck) has still managed not just to make the postseason, but to win their division (the admittedly weak NFC West), meaning they’ll be playing at home against a reeling Dallas squad. Tony Romo, Dallas’s QB, will be forced to play much better then he has in his last few games, and I don’t think that he’s up to the task. The Seahawks will take this one pretty easily.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
My pick: Eagles
The Giants have all but stumbled into the postseason this year, having peaked weeks ago – they’ve lost six of the last eight – and have a locker room that’s full of dispute. With all the destructions thats been happening – from Tiki’s retirement, Eli’s recent shortcomings to Plaxico calling out people in the locker room – the Giants are in a huge mess right now.
However, the Eagles are succeeding when they shouldn’t be – their QB, Jeff Garcia, has been a superb replacement for an injured Donovan McNabb, and their running game is looking pretty sharp. Look for them to win a close one over New York.
AFC
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
My pick: Patriots
Seriously – have the Pats ever lost at home in the playoffs? To a team that only made the playoffs thanks to a nice late-season run (and also to a few losses from some other teams)? No – and it’s going to continue. Last week, in a game that meant nothing to them, they decimated the Titans – a team, that for all intents and purposes is about the same as the Jets are.
The Jets don’t have much of a running game – maybe in a few years, when Leon Washington matures – and their passing game relies on Chad Pennington. Not something I’d want to have on my side when facing a great Pat’s defense. This is a game that the Pats will win easily.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
My pick: The Colts
Even though they’ve been less then stellar the last few weeks, the Colts are still a legitimate threat – Marvin Harrison has had several great games in a row now, netting six touchdowns in his last three games (including three against Cincinnati in week 15). And while their run defence hasn’t been great, Manning and Harrison should do the job nicely.
As for the Chiefs, while Larry Johnson has been good this year, he’s still not at the same level as he was last year. And while they can run the ball well, passing and defence aren’t their strong suits. The Colts will win a close one.
Sure, this season’s been a bust (I like to call it a transition period – Bettis and Randel El are gone and Big Ben had maybe the unluckiest season of any starting QB this decade), but it was still good. So, Bill, thanks for the memories and best luck with whatever comes next.
With that out of the way, the NFL playoffs are upon us once again – which means that it’s time to get out of New England’s way again (especially since they have home field this year) and that the countdown is on for Colts fans to start sulking. And with that, here’s my predictions for Wild Card Weekend!
NFC
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks
My pick: Seahawks
The Seahawks, despite more then enough injuries to it’s starters (Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck) has still managed not just to make the postseason, but to win their division (the admittedly weak NFC West), meaning they’ll be playing at home against a reeling Dallas squad. Tony Romo, Dallas’s QB, will be forced to play much better then he has in his last few games, and I don’t think that he’s up to the task. The Seahawks will take this one pretty easily.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
My pick: Eagles
The Giants have all but stumbled into the postseason this year, having peaked weeks ago – they’ve lost six of the last eight – and have a locker room that’s full of dispute. With all the destructions thats been happening – from Tiki’s retirement, Eli’s recent shortcomings to Plaxico calling out people in the locker room – the Giants are in a huge mess right now.
However, the Eagles are succeeding when they shouldn’t be – their QB, Jeff Garcia, has been a superb replacement for an injured Donovan McNabb, and their running game is looking pretty sharp. Look for them to win a close one over New York.
AFC
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
My pick: Patriots
Seriously – have the Pats ever lost at home in the playoffs? To a team that only made the playoffs thanks to a nice late-season run (and also to a few losses from some other teams)? No – and it’s going to continue. Last week, in a game that meant nothing to them, they decimated the Titans – a team, that for all intents and purposes is about the same as the Jets are.
The Jets don’t have much of a running game – maybe in a few years, when Leon Washington matures – and their passing game relies on Chad Pennington. Not something I’d want to have on my side when facing a great Pat’s defense. This is a game that the Pats will win easily.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
My pick: The Colts
Even though they’ve been less then stellar the last few weeks, the Colts are still a legitimate threat – Marvin Harrison has had several great games in a row now, netting six touchdowns in his last three games (including three against Cincinnati in week 15). And while their run defence hasn’t been great, Manning and Harrison should do the job nicely.
As for the Chiefs, while Larry Johnson has been good this year, he’s still not at the same level as he was last year. And while they can run the ball well, passing and defence aren’t their strong suits. The Colts will win a close one.
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