Wednesday, September 06, 2006

The NFL prediction

Meh.

That's pretty much all I can really say this year - I've been reading way too much; I bought two magazines - two more then I usually do - and I've worked on this for much too long, something like two weeks.

And still, I don't think I'm anymore sure about any of these then I was in August. Or in May. Hell, I don't think I'm any more sure then I was the minute after Super Bowl XL ended.

But here it all is - typed lovingly by division by a college student with less time free then he has to sleep.

AFC

AFC East: The Patriots

This division was the one that was the toughest of them all for me to choose: I like the Dolphins this year - more on that later - but I can't help but to choose the Pats, once again. They haven't lost any key players other then their kicker and a linebacker... And if that was all it takes to kill this team it's a bad sign for Brady's Hall of Fame chances.

The Dolphins improved by signing a QB and it'll be a good race - although I'm not quite sold on the Dolphins defense. The Bills will tank fast while the Jets will pull a Barbaro and break a leg out of the gate.

I'm going to say the order will be like this:

- New England Patriots
- Miami Dolphins
- Buffalo Bills
- New York Jets


AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers haven't done much other then cutting the fat in the offseason: they lost Tommy Maddox and Randel El - which means that their WR passing stats will go in the toilet. And hurt or not, Big Ben keeps getting better and better. If this team wins less then 11 games it's time for a new coach.

Otherwise, the Bengals are still good - but, thanks to the new rules on touchdown celebrations, a lot less fun to watch. Baltimore's gotten worse during the offseason (Brain St. Pierre? Mike Anderson?) and Cleveland is, well, bad. Really bad.

- Pittsburgh
- Cincinnati
- Baltimore
- Cleveland


ARC South: Indianapolis Colts

Er, when you have ha;f your games against teams like Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville and you're one of the best teams in the NFL's recent history, you're going to win the division, no matter who your running back is.

Other then them, Jacksonville is a decent team who hasn't convinced me that they're better then either Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver or Miami; Tennessee made a few changes but I don't see them getting ahead of either of the previous teams in the standings and Houston... Well, if nothing else, there's always next year's draft - maybe then the Texans can draft a running back.

- Indianapolis
- Jacksonville
- Tennessee
- Houston


AFC West: Denver Broncos

Why not? They have a revolutionary two-tier running back system (trust me, this is like when they introduced the Relief Pitcher), a solid QB in Plummer, a good defense and they added a few good parts (Javon Walker, Mike Bell) to replace what they lost (Mike Anderson). They're a lock to win their division.

And, again, why not? Kansas City still doesn't play defense; Oakland's still a coach away from being a contender and San Deigo's QB situation looks worse then it did last year. It's not going to be a breeze, but it's not too much to ask for the Broncos.

- Denver
- San Diego
- Kansas City
- Oakland


NFC:

NFC East: New York Giants

Sure, the Giants fell apart in the playoffs last year - but they added bulk to their defense with LaVar Harrington and kept some of their big playmakers with Plaxico Burress and Eli Manning. And sure, Tiki Barber is getting old - but he's still doing a lot better then most running backs that are his age. It'll be close, but I think the Giants have what it takes to win this division this year.

Philadelphia's Eagles look good - last year they were marred by injury and locker-room disputes - but I'm not sold on their offence; will McNabb rebound? Did TO truly carry the team like he thought he did? It's too many questions for me. Dallas will self-implode over TO, Parcells and Bledsoe before week five (I would be surprised as hell if both TO and Bledsoe can successfully work together over the course of the season; it'd be like Larry the Cable guy successfully co-hosting The Daily Show for half a year) and Washington will have a tough go at it - they have a great running back with Clinton Portis, two solid receiving backs... But their offense is still led by Mark "Bledsoe Jr." Brunell.

- New York Giants
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Washington Redskins
- Dallas


NFC North : Chicago Bears

Remember the Bears of the mid 1980s? They had a killer running back in Walter Payton, sure, but who else? Jim McMahon? Willie Gault? No - they won because of their defense, which is exactly what the 06 Bears are planning - and will - do. Thanks to their powerful defense, the Bears can get away with just having a couple weapons - they have a solid running game - in a seriously weak division.

Otherwise, the Packers should continue their general decline down towards irrelevance - you can thank their aging QB for that - while Minnesota enters a rebuilding stage, thanks to the recent losses of their major offensive stars (Culpepper, Moss, et al). And Detroit... Well, the Tigers are doing pretty well this year.

NFC South: Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are a real threat this year - nobody seemed to notice that they had a great defense and that there was more to the team then just Steve Smith. Not that it really matters; Smith is fantastic and, if healthy, carry almost any team. The Panthers will make easy work of everybody.

On the other side of the NFC South coin, the Atlanta Falcons will have a decent season - nothing special, I'm afraid - while the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have fun at the bottom. Sure, both of them have some great running backs - but neither of them have what it takes to get past Carolina.

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks

I hate myself for this - no Super Bowl loser has repeated in ages and the Seahawks have a tough schedule and Sean Alexander is a ACL Tear waiting to happen. But still - they play in a division against the St. Louis Rams, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals. You can pretty much chalk up 6, maybe 7 wins right there.

Speaking of the Cards, I'm not buying this "They're a sleeper" nonsense. They have Kurt Warner, a QB who's too green to be a starter right now and a great running back who I suspect will be bad with the Cards line in front of him. St. Louis will surprise people, but to do that they'd need to do what, win six games? And the 49ers... Well, they're rebuilding. Still.

Playoffs:

First a lesson: I've always enjoyed playing games on both computers and on consoles - but my experience is pretty much limited to sports games or RTS games. So tonight, when I got invited to a Halo party, I assumed that I could just switch from one to the other. After all, how different can it be?

Turns out it's a lot different.

The point here is that some things don't transfer over too well - and sometimes what cuts it in one place doesn't in another. That said, here's the playoffs (But first, a quick recap):

NFC
East: New York
North: Chicago
South: Carolina
West: Seattle
Wild Cards: Philadelphia, Atlanta

AFC
East: New England
North: Pittsburgh
South: Indianapolis
West: Denver
Wild Cards: Cincinnati, Miami

Championship games: New England over Indy; Carolina over Chicago
Super Bowl XLI: Chicago over New England