Attack of the moderately-effective Quarterbacks - Tuesday NFL Notebook

Jason Elam, the hero, had a day to remember. Five of six, including the game-winner from 48 yards out with no time left.

Shouldn’t have gotten that close, though. The Bears should have had that game wrapped up. The Falcons should have, too. Let me explain.

For all of its offensive heroics, the Falcons and Bears played one of the sloppiest games I’ve seen in some time on Sunday. Elam missed a chip shot that could have sealed it; Orton couldn’t score from the Atlanta 14 and they had to settle for a field goal. Both quarterbacks threw for about 300 yards, but each for only one score.

Plus the squib kick. Oh man, that squib. Worst case it costs you the game. Best case it… well, I guess it runs out the clock, but still gives the other team good field position.

And the Bears most definitely got the worst case scenario. The Falcons got the ball at their own 44, got a quick 26 yard pass in and won the game. All within six seconds.

And again, it’s something that shouldn’t have happened – the Bears shouldn’t have had so much time left on the clock, ideally. Their last drive was all passes, eight of them from the shotgun. I understand, they only had one timeout left. But you can afford to let a little time run off the clock, especially on a 3rd and 10 with under 25 seconds remaining.

Anyway. An ugly win for the Falcons, who are now four and two in a tough NFC South: Tampa Bay and Carolina have the same record, with a better point differential, and New Orleans is right behind them (more on them in a second).

They’re a team that’s succeeding because of a lack of pressure. After what the team has gone through in the past two seasons, simply going .500 would surely be a good thing. But they might yet surprise some people.

Their schedule isn’t terribly tough, with games against Philly, Oakland and St. Louis. Granted, their in-division schedule looks tough (they’ve lost two of those games already, their only losses so far), but even then, a 9-7 record doesn’t look too far out of reach – wins against the Rams, Raiders, and Eagles all seem probable and I’d be surprised if they lose all of their divisional home dates.

But in the NFC South, this might not be enough. Tampa Bay and Carolina are hot and look to complete for the division. New Orleans is good too – each of their losses is by less then a touchdown and Brees is throwing over 300 yards a game. Forget the NFC East, this is the division to watch.

That’s right, forget the NFC East. It’s a slugfest, sure (holy hell, am I going heavy with the metaphors or what). But it’s getting a little clearer. The Cowboys have lost Tony Romo for four weeks with a broken finger (doesn’t pinkie sound too informal for an injury report?) and a tough overtime loss to Arizona, their second in three games. So much for their 3-0 start. Thankfully, it comes at about as good a time as it could for the Cowboys – they face St. Louis next week and should quickly find a rhythm with their new QB in time for Tampa Bay the week after.

So it doesn’t look like they’ll miss Romo all that much. There are whispers out there that paint him as the most overrated member of the team, ahead of even Adam Jones. Is it fair to cite him for two consecutive playoff losses? Perhaps. If Dallas flails here, though, it’s more then fair to blame his absence.

Over in the AFC, the Dolphins are flipping the bird (flipper?) to the haters. they’re 2-3, but that’ll correct itself soon enough; their point differential is better then New England’s and they’ve allowed the points in the division. Forget their loss to the Texans, it was almost a fluke.

Look at the numbers instead: 19 of 25, for 284 yards. Only one turnover. There are some other, uglier numbers. Four penalties; 485 total yards allowed; a five-minute difference in time of possession. To me, this speaks of a good offence, but a bad defence – the Dolphins can score, but they kept the Texans in the game, and it bit them in the ass.

But there are some positives to take from this. Pennington has been improving each game, finding targets all over the field. They have a stable of receivers that aren’t great, but are more then capable. They have a solid running game. Five of their next six are at home. They should be posed to strike and make a run at the AFC East… but not unless they improve their defence.

Against the rush, they’re an okay team, in the top third of the league even. It’s their secondary that’s killing them: on a per-game level, you could make a case they have the worst pass defence in the NFL. Worse then Oakland and Seattle. Not much better then Detroit.

In a pass-happy division (three of the four teams are in the top half for passing yards) this can and will hurt them. Perhaps it’s why they’ve gotten the breaks they have. Still, you have got to give them a puncher’s chance – New England is going to sink in the next couple weeks, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Jets fall below the Dolphins.

Other notes: How about those New York Titans throwbacks? The Jets keep wearing them and they seem to keep winning in them: they’re 3-0 in them. The Titans themselves? They went .500 wearing them in 1960. … I was told it was a thrilling finish in Minnesota. The line score suggests it was exciting – a one point game decided at the end. Looking at the box score and the highlights, though, paint a picture of a dreadfully dull affair that picked up late in the fourth, and even then not really. Can’t the Lions do anything, including drama, right? … The Torry Holt era may be drawing to a close in St. Louis – held to 23 yards, Holt is effective mostly as a decoy now, as he draws at least a double team each game. Too bad that doesn’t count for my fantasy team.

Tell your QB rating to shut up, Rex

It’s a Friday night, the Super Bowl is something like 72 hours away and I still cannot make up my mind about who is going to win. Will Payton Manning find a way past maybe the best defence in the NFL? Will the Colts find a way to shut down another great team with a great tandem of halfbacks?

More importantly – will Rex Grossman find a way to shut up his critics?

He enters this 41st Super Bowl game as maybe the most criticized starting quarterback since Joe Nameth. He has been chided on all sides for his inconstant play all season lone – from his infamous game against the Vikings on week 13 (1.3 QB rating, 31 completion percentage, 34 yards passing) to a brilliant game against the Giants on week 10 (3 TD, 246 yards, 105.7 rating).

Yes, he’s not the best QB in the league (not even close, I’ll admit). His play in the playoffs has been, well, spotty – two touchdowns in two games, only competing half of his passes, etc). But you know what? I believe in him.

And why shouldn’t I believe in him? It’s not a matter of him being good or bad – that doesn’t matter. He doesn’t need to be good to win games – just like he’s proven all year long. He has been exceptionally good this season and he’s been exceptionally bad this season – and still, the Bears won 13 games in the regular season and two more in the playoffs. Sure, he’s not as good as Payton Manning – but when his team is as good as it is, he doesn’t need to be (although, imagine if he was – what a team that would be, eh?).

Right now, Chicago is leading all teams in rushing yards per game (158) and points per game (33). While Indianapolis does have a good rush defence, they also allowed a big rushing day against New England – a team who’s running game is nowhere near as good as Chicago’s. Despite having a big advantage, statistically, over New England (they held the ball for more five more minutes, had almost twice as many first downs and had over 100 more yards offensively) they just squeaked out a win.

And that was against a team that finished the season tied with them (12-4) and scored almost 100 points less then them (New England scored 385 points, Indianapolis 427).

The Bears won more games (13-3), scored just as many points (427) and allowed more then 100 points less against them (255) then the Colts – clearly they’re just as good, if not better… So why are they seven point underdogs to a team that just barely beat New England?

I have no idea.

And that’s why I’m taking the Bears to win Super Bowl XLI.

Championship weekend - It's gunna be a showdown

It was an outcome that should have been obvious from the start – If indeed the Indianapolis Colts are to go to the Super Bowl, they would only have to go through their old nemesis the New England Patriots.

This whole season kind of makes sense now.

With both AFC teams upsetting their opponents last week – neither home team won – the stage is now set for what appears to be one of the biggest games in recent memory. The Colts, despite having a great offense, could barely manage to score last week and won by the skin of their teeth; conversely, the Patriots did score, coming back from being down 21-14 late in the game, and upsetting a team with maybe the best offense in the NFL.

It’ll be a showdown in Indy on Sunday – and for once, maybe the Colts will have the upper hand.

“Bad dreamer, what's your name
Looks like we're ridin' on the same train
Looks as through there'll be more pain
There's gonna be a Showdown”
ELO - Showdown


AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Sez: Colts (+3)

This will be the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs in recent memory. Both of those games were losses for the Colts – but both teams are in different stages now. The Patriots are in arguably their worst shape in years, having lost major contributors, from coordinators Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini to players like David Givens, Doug Gabriel and – and arguably most important – their clutch kicker Adam Vinitari.

You can see how losing key players such as those has effected the Patriots offense this season – Since posting close to 600 offensive yards (5722) and averaging 27 points per game in 2004 (their last Super Bowl win), their offense has dropped: just over 5600 yards/23 points per game in 2005 and 5300 yards/24 points per game this season.

Defensively, however, they have improved: for example, their yards allowed (on a per game basis) has dropped from 310 in 2004 to 330 last season – but has rose to 294 this year, the same as Chicago’s mighty defence allows. They rush defence has improved as well, going from 98 yards a game in 2004 to 94 yards this year (much better then Chicago). And against the pass they’ve gone from 212 yards/game to 200 – which could prove to be a hassle to the Colts, who are still a pass heavy team.

Speaking of the Colts, they are actually much better team then the one that lost to the Patriots on 2004. This year, with both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne posting big numbers – Wayne has caught 9 TD this year and is averaging 15 yards a catch while Harrison has caught 12 touchdowns (second in the league) and is averaging 14 yards a catch – their offense is one of the most productive in the NFL (3rd in yards per game, 2nd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards).

But while both of their major receivers have caught for more then 1300 yards (Harrison is ranked #2 in the NFL, while Wayne is tied for third), their running game is lacking behind (18th in the NFL with just 110 yards per game).

It’s pretty much for that reason alone that I’m going to back the Patriots. Even though the Colts are at home; even though the Colts are playing much better; even though the Colts are the 3 point favorites… They are still playing the Patriots in January.

My pick: New England

*************************

NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Vegas sez: Chicago (+ 2)

The Bears defence has been great this year – perhaps even superb, especially when it covers for Rex Grossman’s occasional bad game – and their offense isn’t too bad, either, ranking 15th in both total yards and rushing yards, thanks to the duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. Their passing game is somewhat better, ranking 14th, explaining why they score 26 points/game (higher then New Orleans, actually).

Which isn’t to say that New Orleans isn’t any good – they very much are. But while they have a great offense (they have the most total yards, most passing yards and are fifth in points scored per game), defensively they’re weak. They rank ranking 15th in total yards allowed (4917), 23rd in rushing yards allowed (2063) and 13th in points allowed per game (20.1). If they have one bright spot on their defense, it’s against the pass – they rank 3rd overall, with 174 yards a game.

Still, against a Chicago team that is more dangerous because of a powerhouse defense and a solid running game, the Saints have a bit of a chance – but not a big one. The Bears will win this one and play in their first Super Bowl since 1985.

My pick: The Bears

Seperating the wheat from the chaff

Week 13 is when the real season begins.

By now we've already seen who the pretenders, the winners, the dark horses and the losers are in the NFL. This is when the real competion begins for the few spots left in the NFL playoff race - and when teams have to give it all to get in.

Who's in - NFC Edition:
Division Winners:
NFC Central + Bye Week: Chicago Bears
Even with Rex "third string on anybody else" Grossman as their QB, dah Bears have locked up their division again. The real question now is if their defence can keep it up. Either way, it's a given (since they already clinched the spot) that they'll make the postseason.
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
I never thought I'd say this - but how many people thought they would, right? - but Tony Romo is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year. He'll carry the Cowboys into the playoffs for sure; they'll play a slumping Atlanta team, a subpar Philadelphia Eagles and the terrible Detroit Lions - and one game against a good New Orleans Saints. All things considered, I expect the Cowboys to win their division with a 11-5 record.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
The Saints offence is great this year - Reggie Bush has been on fire the last few games (including a great 4 TD showing on December 3rd) and Drew Brees is on pace for being the QB of the year, not to mention how good Duece McAllister, Marques Colston and Joe Horn have been. Their main problem is that they're facing a bit of a tough schedule towards the playoffs (Dallas, Washington, New York and Carolina), so they won’t go in on any kind of a roll. Expect them to finish 10-6.
NFC West + Bye Week: Seattle Seahawks
Even without their two best players (Matt Hasselbeck and Sean Alexander) the Seahawks are still a force to be reckoned with, especially when they have as easy a second half as they do: they play Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego and Tampa Bay – and they should easily win three, if not all four, of those games. Look for them to enter the postseason on a positive four-game winning streak, with a record of 12-4.
Wild Card: New York Giants
Yes, the team appears to be on a skid – but they’ve lost their last two games by a total of six points (all year they haven’t been able to win close games: they either win by a touchdown or they lose by a field goal, generally). And while having them run the table would be nice – it won’t happen, but it’d be nice – they’ll pull out wins against Philadelphia and Washington and squeak into the playoffs. Final record: 8-8
Wild Card: Carolina Panthers
They’re good, but their schedule (Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans) and conference record (4-4) aren’t. But their divison record is (3-1). They’ll finish 8-8 and just make the cut.

Who’s out (and why):
Atlanta Falcons – Vick’s better then ever, but his receivers aren’t. They’ll finish 8-8 and just miss the cut.
Minnesota Vikings: They looked good for a bit, but won’t have enough to finish. They’ll finish 7-9 with wins against St. Louis and Detroit.
St. Louis: The early underdog favorites looked good early on, but have faded fast (does anybody even count them anymore?). They’ll finish strong, beating Oakland and maybe Washington (maybe) but it won’t be enough (look for them to give St. Louis a good game, though): 7-9 overall.

AFC editon will be up by the end of the week.