Showing posts with label San Diego Chargers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label San Diego Chargers. Show all posts

Friday, January 02, 2009

NFL Wild Card weekend pre-game notes

It seems like Bizzaro World, or something, for the first week of the NFL Playoffs. Not only are the Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons playing this week – the Falcons are even favoured! It’s quickly becoming cliché, but this is a rare playoff weekend where all four road teams are favoured.
Which is exactly how it should be.

Saturday games

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals

Here’s a fun stat: The Cardinals point differencial (the difference between how many points they’ve allowed and how many they’ve scored) is just one. One single point. That’s gotta be some kind of record low for a team in the playoffs, let alone one with a home game. Still, they’re a team that can put up a ton of numbers.

And the Falcons will be a test. They’re a young team that’s never played a playoff game – and by simply making the playoffs, one could argue their season is already a success. Will they have the drive to win? Perhaps, but it’ll be close, so I’m taking the experience – I like the Cardinals in a shootout.


Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers


On the heels of a crushing win over the Broncos, the Chargers look to be on an offensive roll – they’ve won their last four games. For the first time this season they look on the field like they do on paper. But a closer look reveals a weak defence that’s especially porous against the throw.

And if the Chargers are hot right now, the Colts are on fire; they’re the winners of their last nine games. I like Manning to have a big day against the Chargers’ defence while the Colts win big, by much more then the -2.5 points Vegas is giving them.

Sunday games

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins


Much like the Falcons, one could argue the Dolphins season is already a success; on the heels of their famed “Wildcat” offence, they’ve turned from a one-win team to winners of the AFC East, even beating the Patriots twice.
But for all of their offensive prowess lies a pretty average – tepid, even – defence. They’ve allowed a ton of yards against the pass, which is what will cost them here.

In fact, the only major question in my mind here is by how much: in their lone meeting with the Ravens, they were crushed 27-13, with Joe Flacco throwing 17 for 23 in the process. And since the Ravens have only improved since then, I think he’ll have a similar day, winning easily. Take the points on this, a line of just -2.5 for the Ravens just seems too small here.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings

Despite only making the playoffs by the barest of margins – they had to beat Dallas and need both Tampa Bay and Chicago to lose – the Eagles are a solid team and one that can easily sneak to the NFC Championship game. Why? They’ve got the best defence in the conference – and maybe in the league.

Yes, that’s right. Better then the Vikings defence. Better then the Giants. And maybe even better then Pittsburgh’s – they allowed only a few more points in a much better conference. I’d expect them to be able to handle Minnesota, which didn’t look all that good last week, when they played for a playoff spot.

Quick recap:
Cards, Colts, Ravens and Eagles.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Wherein the AFC East gets a clearer, but only by a little - NFL Notebook

With their backs against the wall, the Patriots played dynamite, sharp and looked as good as ever - but it could all be for naught.

The AFC East is crowded and good, maybe the best division of the decade, and 11 wins could not even be enough now. Three of it's four teams played for their seasons today, all three tied with identical records - and the fourth had a chance to play spoiler, facing a team with the same record; the AFC West leading Denver Broncos.

At home, the Patriots took on the NFC West champion Arizona Cardinals. On paper, a good match for New England - the Cards were good, but not that good. They clinched their division with games to spare - but their division looked like this:
Arizona: 8 wins, 6 losses
San Fransisco: 5 wins, 9 losses
Seattle: 3 wins, 11 losses
St. Louis: 2 wins, 12 losses

The Patriots have a better, a more dynamic offence. A better defence, too: they allowed a little over 300 points so far this season, nearly 100 less then the Cardinals. They played better, too, putting on a clinic for the Cards.

In poor weather, Don DeLillo once wrote, always take the underdog. Poor weather neutralizes advantages. But during a snowstorm, the kind of weather that has always been an asset for them, the Patriots demolished the Cardinals. I can't stress this enough - it looked like a junior varsity team taking on a state champion at times. Not just big plays, either (although there was their share), but little ones, things that added up.

Item. Last drive of the first half. Less then two minutes left, the Patriots get the ball on their own 29 and lead 28 to nothing. Cassel passes quickly out to his left, a 14 yarder to Gaffney. Three plays later, another one up the left to Gaffney for 16. Both times, Gaffney was in single coverage and ran a quick route - a medium hook, with him turning around to meet the ball - and a step out of bounds. Simple, fast, smart football. Two after that, 20 yards to Welker, same idea on the right side. In about a minute, the Patriots have moved from their 29 to the Cardinals 20 - without using a timeout. They kick a field goal and go ahead 31-0 as the clock expires.

That was a perfect two minute drill, ran against a division champion. And the Patriots made it look easy, like it was an inter-squad game. It didn't even mean anything, really. The outcome wasn't in doubt by this point. It was practice for the playoffs. By a team that could miss them, against a team bound for them.

But getting there isn't just in their hands. If the Patriots are to sneak in, they'll need some help. All throughout this blowout, the ticker keeps flashing updates from the Kansas City/Miami game, which by all indications, appears to be a shootout. Tied as they go into the fourth at 31, this game is a surprise: have the Dolphins fallen back to Earth? They were six-point favourites over the Chiefs, a two-win team. And they're tied? At 31? The Dolphins would score a major about halfway through, though, and held on to win, keeping the deadlock on top of the AFC East alive.

So, as the Jets took the field in a snow-blown Seattle, they dropped to third, just a half-game back; the Dolphins surged to first, as they held the tiebreaker over the Patriots.

And it couldn't have looked good for the Jets. A cold, windy day is not ideal by any means, but for a quarterback like Brett Farve, it's even worse: inaccurate at the best of times, these conditions have to be be hell for the aging QB. Still, a win over a two-win Seattle would set up one final game for the season, played between the Jets and the Dolphins, a game that would almost be a title game in all but name, with the winner going into the playoffs.

But as the game - a mostly dull, defencive affair, dominated by the weather - winds down, I have only one question: does he have it in him? Does Brett Farve, who all but defined clutch quarterbacking in his career, have another comeback left in him?

Down by a major and at their own 12, the Jets get the ball back. They need a win, just to keep pace, just to keep their season alive. Herein follows the drive:
- Farve sacked. The pocket collapses up the middle.
- A quick reception up the middle to Coles, in a pass from the Jets own end zone
- Farve drops back in the shotgun, pumps, waits, moves, pumps again, has all kinds of time but can't get anything going and throws an incomplete pass
- 4th and four, on their own 20, the Jets go for it. Farve drops back, waits, dodges a hit, pump fakes, throws downfield, a long bomb into double coverage, Gus Johnson yells and... the pass hits Coles in the numbers, a perfectly thrown pass, but he can't hang on and it falls to the ground, incomplete

There goes the game, right? This is where it falls apart, isn't it?

Or was it earlier? When the Jets kicked a 45 yard FG that was called back on a false start, and instead of going for the kick, five yards longer but with a kicker who just nailed a kick up the middle, punts it away. Was it there, when the Jets could have made the game 10-6 but didn't, that the game ended? Perhaps not officially... but in an abstract sense? Well...

Maybe it was just a typical trap game. Holmgrin's last home game as a head coach. Held in a stadium where the Seahawks are said to have an advantage (the crowd's noise). With the weather in the Seahawks favor.

Remember DeLillo's advice on games held in poor weather.

Other notes: The season can sometimes be cyclical - the Chargers host the Broncos next week, a rematch of the week two game that the Broncos just barely won on a blown whistle... The Cowboys are in complete free fall after a loss to the Ravens on Saturday night - a game they should have won. They can still sneak in (a win over Philly is all they need) but at this point, can they do it? If I had to bet, they get in and lose in the Wild Card game... Atlanta soundly wins a pivotal one against Minnesota. They've clinched a spot - and if Chicago loses on Monday, so do the Vikings.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Quoth the Ravens? - Weekly NFL Notebook

Forgive the cliche, but these Baltimore Ravens, they're a weird team and they've got me all muddled up. First time all season I've seen them play and they disappoint, albeit against one of the best teams in the NFC, the Giants.

The phoneme rookie Joe Flacco, who was perfect for a stretch these past few weeks, came fast and sudden back to Earth, throwing two picks (one returned for a touchdown) while the vaunted Raven defence looked old and decrepit against the continual running attack of the Giants.

Take that 77 yard rush by Ahmad Bradshaw against at the start of the fourth: Lewis over-attacked his man and was woefully out of position. Bradshaw got a nice block and boom, hit a seam (or daylight, or whatever cliche you like most) and it was damn close to a touchdown.

So what happened to the Ravens defence? Up until that game, they were good against the run... but they couldn't make stops. The Giants line was carving into them, opening holes for both Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Their linebacking corps was thusly overworked - sometimes it looked as if they didn't know what to do. They bit early and found themselves attacking the line earlier.

Which helped him had a solid passing day (13 of 23, for 153 yards, one TD and one INT), but remember - it was the rushing that decided this game. It gave the Giants an early lead, helped them keep the Ravens off the field and was the major reason they won.

Where do they go from here? Down, way down. They’re six and four, but a bad six and four. They’ve already gotten to beat up on helpless teams like Cleveland, Cincinnati, Oakland and Houston. To my eyes, their only solid win was over Miami, back in October. One gets the idea that maybe they've already peaked as a team.

We'll soon find out if they're wheat of chaff, for here comes the hard part of their schedule: Philly, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Jacksonville. Four teams they'll be hard pressed to beat. It’s likely they’ll still finish second in the North, but it’s unlikely they’ll make the playoffs.

*****

Once again, Houston and Indianapolis had a wild shootout affair. And just like last time, it ended with a Houston miscue.

For reasons what I don't quite grasp, bottom-of-the-barrel Houston always comes out swinging against the Colts. In a game where defence meant almost nothing for the majority of the game, both teams racked up yardage and points: Houston had over 350 total yards and Indianapolis had 474 yards, with Payton Manning throwing for 320 of them.

Think about that: 320 passing yards. That's more then Oakland, Chicago or Cincinnati managed all day. That's a monster day, yet he only had two majors. One might think that he would have had more scores... but one would be wrong. You don't get that many yards without a strong running game, one that makes the linebackers cheat up and plug holes. And Joesph Addai's line for today (105 yards, one TD) reflects this.

Houston, on the other hand, had a more balanced game: 177 on the ground, 179 in the air. And although Rosenfels had a quiet day, he played well - except for his last drive. He completed 70% of his passes and helped engineer a good game for the Texans: they were outplayed on the other side of the ball by a wide, wide margin (nearly a ten minute difference in time of possession, for example) yet they were in the game right until the end.

But the end was the same as last time, although not quite as heartbreaking for Texan fans. Rosenfels was picked off, for the first time in the game, with just 38 seconds on the clock. But other then that, it was a good drive - quick outlet passes, moving the chains, not eating a lot of time of the clock.

All in all, it was fun game to watch. I like the Texans; they're a lot better then they get credit for. At least sometimes, anyway. In a year or two they could be a team to watch. And the Colts look like they're back. Forget the Titans being undefeated, the Colts have a good shot at the division in my books.

*****

A tough, physical game in Pittsburgh came to an odd close, with the league’s first 10-11 score. Pittsburgh looked good throughout, and the final score doesn’t reflect how well they did actually play.

It’s odd. With a low score, it’s easy to think this was a defensive battle. But it really wasn’t. It was a slogging kind of game, one where both teams went on long marches.

Ben Roethlisberger looked great for the first half, at one point throwing for something like 10 of 11. He finished the game with 31 completions and 308 yards.

But yet, their passing game was lacking: he didn’t throw for a major and was under constant pressure: he was sacked four times. The majority of his completions went to (no surprise) Hines Ward, who finished with 11 catches and 124 yards.

One might think that when the Steelers dominated so much that they’d have won easily. But it was a weird game: Pittsburgh was able to move around the field with ease, but didn’t get into the end zone all game, unless you count an early safety.

No, it was San Deigo, who despite having half the yards the Steelers did, a six minute difference in time of possession and a lousy game from Phillip Rivers (15 of 26, 159 yards and two INT) led for most of the game and led late.

It was all about LT on this snowy, ugly day in Pittsburgh. He scored the lone touchdown of the day, a three yard score up the middle, and it was the most important score of the day. LT spent a good chuck of the match pounding the ball up the middle, never for much, getting chunks of turf stuck to his helmet.

This was latest in a string of odd games for the Chargers, who seem to be getting more then their share of bad breaks this season. That missed call against Denver; a heartbreaking comeback by Carolina in week one; that surprising Miami upset, when the Dolphins broke out everything in the playbook.

The Chargers are now four and six, second in the AFC West. That’s two wins behind both Denver and anybody likely to win the wild card. But don’t count them out: they’ve only lost one game at home thus far – and four of their next six are at home. They can still bounce back.

*****

Other Notes: After jumping to the Cincinnati/Philadelphia game, Fox cut away again from an overtime game. When will the NFL realize that cutting to a close game, then cutting away as per some anarchic rules, doesn't serve make any sense? What's the point of going to going to it, getting the viewer invested in it, then leaving them hanging? I suppose there's the bonus aspect of it - but wouldn't going to an extended postgame show serve the viewer just as well? ... The Seahawks didn't play well, but they certainly took advantage of their chances: they scored three touchdowns on drives of less then 20 yards ... Somebody on the Raiders has to, absolutely has to show Jamarcus Russell how to manage a game. The Raiders last drive, where Russell hung around and watched time tick away was maybe the worst clock management I've seen this year. If the Raiders want him to pan out, they should really look to finding him a mentor, since he doesn't seem to be learning on the job… Can the Titans go undefeated? Who knows – their rushing game is looking atrophied, but their passing game is dynamic. Just when one thinks they’ve got them figured out (a clock controlling team that outsmarts you), they shift gears and become some other beast entirely. If I had to bet, though, they’ll lose two of their last three, when they let Collins rest up for the playoffs.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Defence wins championships - AFC Title Game

They say that defence wins football games, but rarely was that as apparent as it was in Foxboro this Sunday.

Three times the Chargers had the ball inside New England’s 20 yard line – two of those times inside the 10. And yet, the Patriots defence held, not letting the Chargers score a single touchdown, forcing them to kick three field goals.

It turned out to be the margin of victory.

Since the Patriots would only manage three touchdowns on the day, if the Chargers had scored each time they were inside the 20, the score would have likely been 24-21.

Had they scored just the two times they made inside the 10, it’s still a 20-21 game, which would have given that extra incentive for the defence in the fourth quarter.

The Patriots offence sputtered and looked uncomfortable in the first half. An early interception seemed to set the tone for the Chargers defence, who allowed only 139 yards at the half. Tom Brady was only completing half of his passes and their running game was stuck in first gear.

The Chargers offence, on the other hand, looked great – until they would get close to the Patriots goal line. The controlled the clock, had nearly double the yards of New England and Rivers was throwing the ball well.

It looked like an upset in the making – if the Chargers could continue to keep the Patriots offence off the field, while they wore down their defence, they had a realistic shot at beating the unbeaten.

But the Patriots came out ready in the second half.

Tom Brady, who was 22/33, and 11/14 in the second half, wasn’t as sharp as he was the previous week. But he – and his stable of receivers – were great when it counted. When he wasn’t accurate, his receivers made great plays, diving and reaching behind them to make highlight reel catches.

Easily overlooked, however, is Lawrence Maloney. Rushing for 122 yards and a touchdown, his pounding runs helped the Patriots control the second half.

Twice the Patriots had drives of 60 or more yards, eating up the clock. One ended with a touchdown, the other with an interception. Combined, they ate up over 10 minutes.

Add New England’s final, nine-minute drive, that’s nineteen minutes of controlling the ball – more then one full quarter, nearly two-thirds of the second half.

The Chargers, meanwhile, only had three possessions in the second half, only scoring on one of them.

The best defence is a good offence, since it keeps their offence off the field. But to keep the Chargers from scoring a single TD? That was good defence.

And that’s what won the game for the Patriots.