Raw post: Notes from a wild wild-card weekend

Texans / Bengals

• I spent most of this game working my day job, so only some sporadic notes:
• Dalton picked off and it’s returned for a score by JJ Watt. Everybody on twitter makes stupid puns like WATT A CATCH and WATT IS POWERED UP and I open a bottle of Russian Standard, prepared to drink myself into oblivion.
• Tom Hammond is doing the play by play for this game, I keep wishing his brother Daryl was in the booth too
• The game starts pretty cool, both sides trading blows. The Bengals actually look good and are moving around on the Texans, but miss a couple field goals. As the second quarter winds down, the Bengals look like crap; by game’s end, they’re smelling like it too.
• Dalton is a young QB, he plays like a rookie. He makes occasional nice plays but for the most part, he looks lost. Also he’s a ginger, but isn’t inspiring a bunch of lame jokes on twitter, for which I’m eternally thankful.
• Houston, though, looks really good, especially on defence. I find this surprising, since I always think of the Texans as a team that scores a shitload of points and allows almost as many. They made good stops, though, and kicked into high gear in the second half.
• Game theme:

Detroit / New Orleans

• Detroit takes it in early in the first, looks good.
• Brees first play is a huge pass for like 35 yards. They move upfield but fumble. It’d be really cool if the Saints fall apart in another opening-round game
• Cris Collinsworth is impressed by Stafford’s game calling, overlooks the presence of an offensive coordinator
• Deep into the second quarter, New Orleans still hasn’t punted.
• Good call, after review at end of second. Colston made a good try, but it wasn’t a catch. But it wasn’t a penalty either; a pretty weak call. Detroit makes a good stop and holds the Saints to a field goal after a first and goal at the six-yard-line
• Pierre Thomas has had a couple of solid runs. Brees comes out throwing deep on Detroit; Meachem drops a sure TD, then Henderson catches and runs one in from 41 yards out. The Saints came out firing.
• The Lions are playing a cool kind of defence where they don’t tackle
• Brees to Colston, for 40 yards. Another huge catch, yet another deep pass on the Lions defence, and a play later it’s a 10-point lead
• Stafford chucking it, too. Throws a high, arcing pass to Calvin Johnson, who has to slow down to catch it; a 42-yard gain, sticks ‘em right by the goal line. On third and goal, Stafford makes a risky move: fake handoff (complete with a jumping RB) as he rolls out and runs to end zone, diving and sticking the ball out ahead of him. Refs call it a TD, gets reviewed and held up.
• “today this lions team means so much to detroit” cris collinsworth, a modern day heraclitus
• People are going to mention Brees passing for mega-yards, but Pierre Thomas having a great game on the ground, too. He’s busting tackles all over.
• Another huge pass, this time to Meachem for a 56 yard, walk-in score. Detroit’s defence is non-existent.
• Detroit’s down huge, midway thru 4th, and its looking bad. Stafford could - will? - throw for 400 yards and still lose this game; detroit’s going to allow like 600. Still, Calvin Johnson catches his 12th pass, this time for a score, and it’s 28-38 Saints.
• This is the better game of the two, but it’s not been a tremendous game, either.
• Brees just chucks it downfield again to Meachem. Feels like a routine, or a game of techmo bowl where you just constantly use a play with a fly route. Also Dadboner’s twitter is going crazy which is nice
• The Saints just blowing away the Lions in the second half. What did they find out at halftime? That Detroit’s secondary doesn’t know how to tackle? They’ve scored 35 points in the second half. Their defence makes a token play, picking off Stafford with about three minutes left, and it’s basically over
• “Unable to match points with Drew Brees tonight,” says Cris
• New Orleans doesn’t punt all game; every second half possession ends in a TD - except the last one, when they ran out the clock deep in Detroit’s end; if they wanted to score, I bet they could have.

Atlanta /  New York Giants

• Joe Buck and Troy calling this game; does that make it America’s Game of the Week of the Century??
• Just noticed that Eli’s captain patch is all lit up, like he’s caught 100 rings and in Super Saijin Mode or w/e
• A few minutes into the first and both sides have punted more than New Orleans did last night. Each side with two straight three-and-out. I guess you could call this a defensive struggle, but my gut’s telling me it’s because both teams aren’t any damn good
• Eli to Ballard on the first play of the Giants third possession results in the first first down of this game. We’re only seven minutes into the game before the offense shows up. they punt. the falcons pick up their first on their next possession, too
• I was kind of hoping this would be the exciting match this weekend: yesterday’s games were blowouts and the later game tonight pits two great defences against each other, which will probably translate to a 7-3 final. Kind of surprised at the lack of offence here.
• Falcons putting together a nice drive, not testing the Giants defence really, but picking their spots. They go for it on 4th and inches, which I think you should always do, and are just short, maybe by like an inch? (fun note: only possession of the first half where they don’t punt it away! except a hail mary at the end of the 2nd, which shouldn’t count)
• And just like that, the Falcons get their first points: a falling Eli chucks one away from inside the end zone; it’s intentional grounding and is ruled a safety. Falcons are heating up!
• Jacobs puts his head down and rushes for eight (about 8 left in 2nd). First run of his today that stands out to me; he tries it again on second down and it doesn’t work. Still, the Giants are putting a nice drive together, for once. A few plays later, he busts out a HUGE run. On the replay they cut together different angles for the run, which is kind of neat. The Giants have a 4th and inches and they go for it: handoff to Jacobs, who spins and picks up a couple. 46 with a nice block, too. Next play, Eli throws to Nicks, who makes a off-balance, spinning grab for the first TD of the day. 7-2 Giants.
• At one point, near the two-minute warning, this is the sequence: play, commercial, play, commercial, play, punt, commercial. GOTTA GET THOSE ADS IN.
• Halftime score: 7-2, New York. Both offenses are struggling, although they have put together a few nice drives. Eli’s had some nice plays, but a couple of boneheaded ones, too. Jacobs have looked really good. On the Falcons? Well, they’re not awful, I guess. Matt Ryan is 13 of 19 for 98 yards, no scores and a 80.6 QB rating; Manning is 10 of 14 for 60, one score and 103.3 (and a safety). Jacobs has more yards on the ground (48) than Atlanta does (37).
• a few giants get hurt when they collide. One, Ross, goes to the lockers.
• first big play of the second half: bradshaw explodes to his right, is hauled down around the five after picking up 30 yards! Giants running game is on today, they’re just pounding it. It’ll be neat to see the time of possession. This run leads to a field goal, 10-2 NY. As Fox goes to commercial, their replay shows Coughlin throwing his hands in the air, flippant
• Atlanta goes for it on another 4th down and turns it over on downs a second time. Cue an endless string of coaches saying “never go for it”
• This leads to a Manning pass to Nicks, who finds a seam, busts past like three guys and runs in a score. It was a shortish pass up the middle and Nicks was wide open + had an angle where nobody was really able to catch him. 72 yards pass + run!
• The Falcons are not doing it in short yardage. On third and short, they get stuff, so they punt it away. Turner not having a good game on the ground.
• Giants game coming together. Eli gets tons of time to throw a deep one to Manningham in the end zone, for a 27-yard score. We’re entering blowout territory, 24-2 Giants. Eli is now 19 of 28, for three scores, 241 yards and a QB rating of 130.2(!). The Giants offence is just blowing away the Falcons right now; Atlanta’s offence is sputtering, especially in short yardage
• I spent most of the fourth looking at used cars. Atlanta had a cool three-and-out that lasted less than a minute, the Giants marched all over and missed a chip shot FG and then the Falcons put together a drive for the 2-minute warning.
• Final thoughts: another case where one team just dominated. More than that, Atlanta’s offence just didn’t have it today. they couldn’t get anything done. on drives they failed on short yardage situations and their running game was non-existant. as a passer, ryan wasn’t awful - certainly not as bad as some tebow games - but he’s still only a midlevel qb, still not as great as he looked as a rookie. the big question coming into next week is going to be if the giants are for real (maybe) and if so, are they a legit super bowl contender? they get this benefit from 2007, when they ripped through the playoffs, sneaking past green bay in ot to make the super bowl. this is not that team, they’re not as good. I think they’ll give green bay a good test, especially on the ground, but won’t pull it out.

Pittsburgh / Denver

• Kind of weird feeling that Pittsburgh, the better team on paper, is away here to a Broncos team that fell backwards into the playoffs.
• Feeling weird about this one: Ben’s hurt, which limits Pit’s offence. And Denver’s defence wins them games. Other side of ball: Tebow, who’s looked bad in wins and worse in losses, facing one of the league’s best defences. It’s going to be a rough game, but maybe the first close one of the weekend.
• “should be a most exciting game,” says Nantz. Well, by law of averages, maybe...
• I like this side-by-side video they show of a pre-and post-ankle injury Roethlisburger throwing and how his motion has changed. kind of odd to use so early in game, but nice they went to the effort
• Miller making some great catches early on, including one for 33 yards. Opening drive stalls around the denver 40, will kick a long FG, makes it.
• Through the first, 6-0 Pittsburgh. Denver with two three and out, plus one drive that runs through the quarter.
• Harrison comes in low for a hit, probably destroys Decker’s knee. I don’t think it’s a really dirty hit, but with Harrison’s rep, he’s going to get fined like a million dollars.
• Tebow tests the Pitt secondary, throws a deep pass to Thomas, with Ike Taylor right on top of him. Good toss, especially for tebow, even better catch. He again throws deep, to Eddie Royal, for a 30-yard score. Denver leads, 7-6
• Next poessession, Roethlisburger throws deep for Wallace, a 52 yard catch - but denver challenges and gets it overturned. I wonder if it’s a gamechanger? Crowd loves that ruling. Three drops by Pitts receivers, notes Simms. Drive sputters, Pittsburgh punts.
• Injuries mounting for Steelers. Not good, especially with the team already banged up.
• Tebow lets out out, a 57-yard throw to Thomas, who beats Taylor (again). He’s found something he likes, wonder if Pittsburgh will mix up secondary for second half. Tebow rushes it in himself; Tebow time knows no bounds.
• Next, Tebow takes some savage hits, he’s getting pounded. He throws a pick, is hit hard again. Denver takes over inside the 20, Tebow throws to end zone, Troy nearly picks it off... and Pittsburgh gets a roughing the passer and this could be over, folks. Denver kicks a FG, 17-6.
• New series: Ben picked, but a flag - offside on defence - so it doesn’t stand. Still, though. He’s hurt, can’t do anything. Pull him, put in Batch. they won’t and they’ll die by the sword. They punt away.
• Another big pass by Tebow, 40 yards to Fells. Tebow’s looking great - albeit against an injured, sinking team. It’s 20-6, now, with all 20 in the second quarter. Steelers falling apart: Ben fumbles a snap, recovers but loses 23 yards. Pittsburgh melting, like something inside a steel mill. Cower asks if resting Ben at season’s end would have been better. I’m inclined to agree.
• Halftime thoughts: Pittsburgh beat up, wonder what changes they’ll make. Ben’s hurt, too hurt I think to warrant staying in. And Denver’s taking advantage of Pittsburgh’s battered defence, exploiting how they play Tebow. You can’t let him run amok, but he’s also making good throws. Give credit to his receivers, too: Thomas with over 100 yards.
• Tebow: 5 of 11 for 185 yards, 1 TD pass, one TD rush, 122.3 QB rating ; Ben’s 11 of 23 for 134 yards, no scores, one pick and a QB rating of 48.1
• Second half for the Steelers offence opens with some weird plays, include a backwards pass that was almost a fumble. Simms explains that a forward pass has to go forward and causes a minor twitter avalanche. Then, the Steelers start moving: a pass for 18, then another... #33 - Redman - rushes down to the end zone, is dragged down, fumbles, but was maybe across the goal line? Going upstairs for a review. On the TV replay, Redman looks like he was down before the goal line, which makes it neither a fumble or a TD. After review, it’s called a first and goal from the one-half yard line. Wallace makes a run to his right, from around the line, into the end zone. 13-20, Denver.
• Heath Miller with some nice blocks on this drive, too. They’re down a weapon w/him blocking, but he’s helping curb a tough defence rush.
• Next Denver possession: Tebow escapes a sack, rushes away for a gain. Then he uncorks a deep one thats way off. Then rushes for another first. Ike Taylor is called out again by Simms. As third ends, they’re moving, right down into Pittsburgh’s red zone. Denver kicks a FG, 23-13.
• As fourth opens, Pittsburgh is looking better on offence. That’s a positive. They’re not as good on defence, allowing a drive of 63 yards. That’s bad. The Broncos are chewing up time on offense. Might not be enough time for a two-score comeback.
• Redman making some good runs. Just tears off one for 28. Next play, Ben rolls out to his right, super slowly. Somehow he isn’t sacked (throw is incomplete). Pittsburgh kicks a FG, cuts it to 23-16.
• Tebow getting rushed, shakes off a tackle, moves to his left and fucks up a lob pass + misses an open reciever. Next pass, tho, complete to Thomas (over Taylor!) for a first down and 15 yards. But next play, Willis McGahee fumbles and turns it over! Denver challeges (why wouldn’t they?)
• McGahee to this point had an okay game. 50 yards on 16 carries. But fumble costs not only possessions, but a timeout and their last challenge. Hope it was worth it.
• Ben makes a quick pass, Sanders spins around a defender, makes it 3rd and one. Redman pounds it across, first down. Under six to play. Ben rushes and moves like he’s the tin man. Redman: another first down. He’s pounding it up. Ben throws a deep one, to a double-teamed Wallace. It’s just about picked off by Bailey - “shoulda had it,” says Simms - but isn’t. Steelers timeout.
• Ben to pass, has all kinds of time, rushes out of pocket. Throws deep to end zone, complete! to Cotchery! Tie game with 3:43 left!
• Open the twitter gates: “Tebow time” say all. He makes a big pass, for 17 yards, to Fells. They run it down to two-minute warning.
• Never let this be understated: today, Tebow’s been impossible to sack. He just ran away from like three tackles, out of the pocket and got ball off. He just saved 10 yards. But on 3rd and 8, his pass is short.
• Ben takes over deep in his own end. He has time, tries to move and is sacked. clock running, again with time, throws up middle to Brown, clock running, 33 seconds left. He throws outside to Sanders, picks up 18 and they stop the clock. 29 seconds left, Suisham is warming up on sideline. His career long is 52 yards. The catch to Sanders is amazing, a falling forward grab, an eight on the difficulty scale.
• Ben is rushed again, fumbles and they’re lucky to still have it. But it’s second and 21, no timeouts left. On own 44. Ben’s deep toss to Ward is batted away, over the head of Wallace too. Flag on 3rd down, delay of game. A short toss to Redman, who goes out of bounds at about the 50. Suisham not going to kick, Ben to pass and he’s sacked. We go to overtime!
• Ben’s blitzed by five guys, hit down by 91.
• This is the first playoff OT under the new rules, the college style one. First play is a huge pass, ran in for a score. The camera catches Tebow kneeing, in prayer. Of course. it’s an 80 yard play. There was nobody from the steelers in the middle, and it was a footrace. Ike Taylor was stiff-armed and nobody came close. Thomas was a total beast today, Tebow had a hell of a game. The most yards against the Steelers defence this year.
• Basically, what a game! It was about as exciting as you could have asked for. A hell of a finish, a great second half.
• Final thoughts: Steelers defence looked bad, really bad. Ike Taylor was called out so many times it’s unreal, but he’s not alone. Tebow’s not a phenomenal passer, but he looked like one today, maybe playing the best game of his career. Certainly played the most exciting one.
• And what about Ben, the other hyped QB? He was okay, I suppose, although he looked a tad slow. In the second half he put it together, as the Steelers came back to tie the game. But look at Redman, who rushed for 121 yards, a career high. Look at Heath Milller, who picked up 60 yards receiving and did a hell of a lot of blocking, too. I wouldn’t call it a flukely loss, but it’s one where Tebow’s abilities at QB meshed well with Pittsburgh’s flaws. It’s not every game where he’ll throw this many yards and expose the secondary.
• Final Score: 29-23, Denver

Not buying the Bills in Toronto

Sunday's Buffalo/Washington game was awful, horrible and boring beyond words. It was such a dull game it should count as an act of international aggression. It was Must Not See TV. It was brutal.

With any luck, it'll be one of the last Bills games in Toronto.

When the series started a few years ago, in 2007, the inclination was somewhat towards optimism. The series was conceived by a group that included heavy hitters like Larry Tanenbaum of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment and Ted Rogers. It came at a time when the Argonauts were doing poorly (they’d finish 2007 with a 4-14 record) and Rogers was upping their financial commitments to the Blue Jays: they had recently added AJ Burnett, BJ Ryan and Frank Thomas to the team.

Enter the Bills. They’re a team with a sizable chunk of fans in Ontario and, it appeared, an uncertain future. Owner Ralph Wilson was just shy of 90 when negotiations started; once he left the Bills, it was far from a given that the team would stay in Buffalo. After all, Buffalo’s one of the NFL’s smallest markets and it’s shrinking, too. Between 2000 and 2010, Buffalo’s population dropped by over 10 per cent. Ralph Wilson Stadium is old, too: it first hosted games in 1973, nearly 40 years ago. Earlier this year, the National Football Post ranked it 20th among all NFL stadiums, saying, “When it comes to architecture and amenities, RWS is going to rank at the bottom of the list.”

It was a great match: a team with a bad stadium, a group that wanted to bring pro football to theirs and was willing to throw money around. It was such a good match that the NFL issued a statement saying the Bills were not going to permanently move to Hogtown.

But nobody was really suggesting that was an option. While the Rogers Centre is an okay place for an exhibition game, it’s capacity of 54,000, is too small to regularly hold NFL games. A new stadium would solve that problem, but who’s going to build it? Toronto’s government is slashing budgets all around – the gravy train, as their mayor put it – so don’t expect a hand there. Why build one? For just eight NFL dates a year? The Argonauts are locked into a lease at the Centre and the TC have their own stadium.

The games have always been a way to make money. Tickets at a Toronto Bills game are more expensive than a game in Buffalo (at one point, costing three times as much: $180 Canadian to $51 US). A Rochester newspaper was blunt, calling the games cash cows. Indeed, the Bills made $78 million from the five-year deal. How much is that? A 2011 Forbes valuation put their yearly operating income at $40.9 million.

It’s been successful on that front. It’s less successful on the field. Sunday’s win was the first time the Bills won in Toronto. It came only a few days after Buffalo’s George Wilson suggested that it’s not really a home game, because the fans don’t care who wins.

And Wilson’s right. Toronto is not a Bills town. It’s not even a football town. It’s also not a Raptors, Argonaut or Blue Jay town. It’s a Leaf town. Hockey will always come first here. Yes, NFL fans will show up for the game, but that doesn’t suppose they’re Buffalo fans. Just take the moment when Scott Chandler jumped into the stands and was greeted by indifference (I distinctly remember one guy filming it on his smartphone).

At best – and one could argue with the Bills 5-2 record, this is their best – the games feel like a neutral field novelty. Despite how good Buffalo’s been this year, Sunday’s win featured a less-than-packed house.

Next year is the final year of the agreement. A lot has changed from when it was first signed. Ted Rogers is dead, the Canadian dollar has strengthened and the Bills are suddenly good. A new agreement would likely cost Rogers more than $78 million – and that’s even if the Bills want to keep giving up home games.

Simply put, the whole series feels like a tease. It’s a taste of NFL action, but without any of the payoff. It costs more than a game in Buffalo, but has little of the atmosphere: tailgating, packed stands, cold weather. It’s a sanitized, suit-wearing, straight-laced version of pro football, the equivalent of Mitt Romney. Yes, the Bills finally won a game in the cavernous Rogers Centre. But they couldn’t even make that interesting.

The Toronto experiment isn’t working: why pay more for games that feel like they mean less? That the players don’t even like? Next year’s series should be the last. 

Breaking down how and why the Cardinals are the NFC Champion

If nothing else, this certainly wasn’t expected.

By beating the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals earned a trip to Super Bowl XLIII, the first time the team has ever been to one

It wasn’t exactly the easiest of routes, for sure.

By winning the tepid NFC East, where no other team finished above .500, the Cards barely made the playoffs; they were seeded fourth but lost more games then Philadelphia, the sixth seed. In the first round, they weren’t given much of a chance against the Atlanta Falcons, a young and surging team led by Matt Ryan.

In a shootout, the Cards held on to win, 24-30. Their suddenly strong defence limited Ryan to under 200 yards and picked him off twice. Kurt Warner looked years younger, throwing for over 270 yards, 100 of them to Larry Fitzgerald. Remember that name.

Next week, the Cards went on the road to face Carolina, a team who won 12 games – and four of their last five. The Panthers, a six point favourite on ESPN, were blown out, 33-13. Why? Again, the mix of a defence that was coming together and an offence that was dynamic. Again, Warner threw for two majors and for over 200 yards. Again, the defence forced turnovers – five interceptions and a fumble. Again, a convincing win.

All of a sudden, these Cards looked like a threat.

But there was a pattern beginning to form. The Cards were a team that liked to throw the ball, early and often. They liked to score as soon as they could, and they usually did. In the first half, they had 14 against Atlanta, 27 points against Carolina. And as the game wound down, they usually did too: they only scored five points combined in both of those games’ fourth quarters.

This was their weakness. If a team kept running the ball early, controlling the clock, and wound down the defence early, there seemed to be a good chance they could stage a comeback late; they just had to keep the score from getting out of hand.

On to the NFC Championship, against Philadelphia, where the same script seemed to unfold. Throughout the first half, the Cards dominated – three touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald. Two field goals. A 24-6 lead at the half.

But the Eagles kept pounding away. Eagles QB Donovan McNabb capped off a 90-yard drive with a 6-yard pass for a major. Shortly after, he completed four of five passes to move 60 yards, and made it a one-possession game after three.


And right at the beginning of the fourth, the Eagles took the lead on a huge, 62-yard score by McNabb to DeSean Jackson. The two-point failed, but still, the Eagles led 25-24.

This is how it was going to be lost for the Cards, right? This is right about when the wheels were supposed to fall off. When Kurt Warner drops back, forces a throw to Fitzgerald who’s in triple coverage, gets picked off and the game ends. That’s what we expect, isn’t it?

But instead, Warner went short, making quick passes that got the first downs, while using their running backs to keep clock moving. If you get a chance, look at the drive: 14 plays, 72 yards and almost eight minutes eaten off the clock. It wasn’t dynamic, it wasn’t a flashy show of exhibition.

But it was smart. It kept them going, kept the Eagles off the field and make the clock the Eagles enemy. Philly ended up burning their second timeout, just to keep some time left to retaliate.

They tried, too. McNabb threw throughout the next series, and after a couple first downs had a quick three-and-out. That was pretty much it for the Eagles.

Basically, in this win, the Cardinals proved themselves, if that makes sense. Out of all their playoff games, nobody tested them as hard as the Eagles did. The Cards got out early with a great passing game, but nearly lost it all when their defence began to lapse. But intead of sticking to what was working – but would have been the wrong choice – they went back to basics, driving the ball up the middle.

This change threw off the Eagles, who were so keyed in to Warner’s arm that it cost them the game. When they began to adapt to the running game, Warner began to throw quick short passes that kept the drive alive. After testing the secondary with bombs all throughout the first, this seemed to work.

All in all, it was a well deserved win.

The decline and fall of Torry Holt - Tuesday NFL Notebook

The decline and fall of Torry Holt as a top tier fantasy player and other NFL notes

One friend of mine summed it up best: What happened?

The Dallas Cowboys, who had resided in the top ten of nearly everybody’s power polls, rankings and charts were beaten – soundly, at that – by the Rams, the hapless St. Louis Rams.

A monster day for Stephen Jackson (Three touchdowns, 160 yards) and a big day for Donnie Avery (65 yards, one touchdown) and a solid day from Marc Bulger (14/19, 173 yards).

But another tepid day for Torry Holt.

Once one of the most dynamite receivers in the league, and almost always a early-round fantasy pick, Holt has been quiet all season and looks to going downhill fast. At least on fantasy boards.

Only once this season has Holt caught a touchdown, and only once has he had more then 75 yards receiving. And according to ESPN’s stats, he’s on pace for just under 700 yards this season and only three touchdowns. This from the guy who just two years ago had 10 majors and 1,100 yards. What happened?

The double team and the collapse of the Rams offense happened.

With Isaac Bruce having left this offseason and the emergence of Stephen Jackson, the Rams offense has shifted from the long threat, the “Greatest show on turf” from the early part of this decade, to that of a running (and making short passes when needed) based set.

This fits the skill sets for most of the team: Marc Bulger is only throwing 20 or so passes a game now, often short, quick throws, and has found his groove. Stephen Jackson is running with success, especially against Dallas, and gives the team it’s scoring spark.

This leaves Holt as it’s major downfield threat. Thus the double team: for the most part, defences have been keying in and shutting down Holt with two defenders and haven’t had to worry about the rest of the receiving corps.

But this could change soon.

Donny Avery has emerged in the past little while as a threat. His numbers reflect his status as a number two wideout (at least), but he’s picking up solid yards and maybe some coverage. It’s not Bruce and Holt, for sure, but doesn’t Avery and Torry have a better ring to it?

Speaking of rings (or at least missing rings), I saw a show on the Buffalo Bills 1990 team the other day. Ahh, the glory days of Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas, when the Bills were a great team to watch and played maybe the greatest Super Bowl of all time.

Right now in Buffalo, 1990 is suddenly back on a lot of peoples minds, I’m sure: the Bills have their best team since that season.

They’re five and one, lead a messed-up AFC East and are already the favourites to win the division. No longer are they posting comebacks – they handedly beat San Deigo on Sunday, 23-14.

Trent Edwards is throwing often and accurately: 25 of 30 for over 260 yards on Sunday. Marshawn Lynch is looking solid in the backfield and both Lee Evans and Josh Reed are downfield threats. They’re picking apart good defence while elevating theirs: on Sunday they shut down the Chargers: while Phillip Rivers threw for two scores, Ledanian Thomlinson was held to just 41 yards on 14 carries.

This wasn’t a fluke game for the Bills. They’re 10th in yards allowed right now, with just under 300 a game – a lower number then Dallas, Chicago or New England. Against the pass, they’re even better: eighth in the league: better then the Giants, Redskins or Buccaneers. The have the best point differential in their division

As we approach the halfway point of the season, the Bills are looking more and more like a contender: if not for the AFC East, then surely for the wild card. It’s not as if the competition is stiff: The Jets are floundering and the Dolphins have dropped their last two (so much for them being a sleeper).

Other notes: Tennessee is unbeaten and over-reported. I’m not sold on them yet: they haven’t beaten anybody that’s sitting over .500 after week seven. But next Monday’s game, at home against Indianapolis, will be their first big test… If the NFC South is the best division in the NFL (and it is), it’ll be neat to see who comes out of it: Tampa and Carolina are sitting on top, but don’t count out Atlanta yet: they’re young, feisty and they don’t have the same pressure the other teams do… Has there been a season where both Green Bay and Chicago are this good?

Is Farve to the jets nothing more then a PR move?

The temptation to keep playing is a strong one for some athletes, who linger on well past their time. Perhaps it derives from the same drive that propelled them to stardom; sometimes it comes from a need to make money.

If the athlete is lucky, his final years can be overlooked as people remember the glory days. Bobby Orr retired as a Blackhawk. Joe Namath as a Ram. Michael Jordan as a Wizard. They are almost never remembered as playing for these teams, but they are the lucky ones.

For every Jordan-like comeback, there is a shambling Ricky Williams in an Argos jersey or an Ali getting battered by Larry Holmes.

And now, since it looks like Brett Farve will retire as a New York Jet, I find myself wondering what the legacy will look like.

Now that Farve has found a home, replacing Chad Pennington, Farve seems to have jumped from the cheese pan into the fire.

IF he thought the media in Milwaukee was tough, he’s got another thing coming. If he found the Vikings or the Bears tough, he’ll have a hard time on weeks two and 13, when they play the Patriots? Or San Diego on week 3?

It’s not like he’s going to a contender, either. Offensively, the Jets are in the basement: 26th in total yards. 25th in passing yards and points scored. The Jets main back, Thomas Jones, didn’t score a rushing touchdown until week 13 last season. There was even a six game losing streak for the boys in green last year to boot.

Had it not been for the Miami Dolphins, a team that redefined the term “cataclysmically awful”, the Jets would have been the stinkers of the AFC.

Look, I’m not knocking the guy. He wants to play another season, fine, okay, go do it. It’s just that there had to have been a better, less played-out way to do this. There had to have been a better team that wanted him – The Vikings? Tampa Bay?

It just looks more and more like Farve will be heading into a no-win scenario. He’s going from a good team that was a score away from going to the Super Bowl, to a team that lost to Buffalo twice last year. He’s going to a team that needs his leadership, yes, but to a team that needs his publicity even more.

After all, the Giants won the Super Bowl last season. They’re not only riding on top of the NFL, but on the city of New York as well. And by bringing in a legend, the Jets can take back some of the Giants press. But is that all the Farve deal is? A PR move to siphon attention away from the Giants?

Look at what happened in the other comebacks: Jordan, for example, helped put the Wizards in the collective consciousness, something their NBA title couldn't do in the 1970s.

Hopefully, Farve will help the Jets to a decent finish this year.

Hopefully this is more then just a PR move by New York’s second-place football team.

Hopefully our last memory of Farve won’t be him overwhelmed by a bad team.

An open letter to Brett Farve

Brett Farve, I’m tired of you.

Granted, it’s not as if I was ever a big booster of yours; quite the opposite, actually. Normally I couldn’t have cared less about you. I don’t really follow the Packers, or any of the NFC North teams. I watched your last game, yes, but before that I can’t remember the last one of yours I watched.

So what? I can’t remember the last Tampa Bay I’ve watched, either. But it’s not the team you play for, Farve – I’d feel the same way if you played for the Steelers, the Raiders or the Toronto Argonauts.

See, the reason I’m so tired of you is that I’ve heard all this before, and it’s getting dumber and stupider and it keeps getting worse, much like Waynes brothers movie.

A couple years ago, when you cried on national TV, I assumed that was it. Here is his farewell tour, a chance to say goodbye to an icon of the 90s. I was okay with that, even if it was a bit trite.

But then you came back. Again, fine – a year of farewells, capped off with a dramatic overtime loss to the Giants in the snow. Not the best way to go out, sure, but a memorable one.

But now you want to come back once more, for the third time, by my count. You saw how close you were to another title, you saw how the only difference between you and the Lombardi trophy was the foot of Lawrence Tynes, splitting the uprights in a freezing cold Green Bay night. So close you could almost feel the trophy, couldn’t you.

Hate to burst your bubble, Brett, but that isn’t how it went down and that’s not likely to happen again.

If it wasn’t for a memorable catch, the one where David Tyree held the ball to his head, the Giants wouldn’t have won that game. They basically lucked out in that bowl. I’m not sure you would have.

The Packers are a team in transition. They’re moving on, rebuilding, and they don’t look to compete like they did last season.

But then again, Brett, I hear you don’t want to play for the Packers anymore. The Vikings, maybe. Or the Jets. Perhaps the Buccaneers. Makes no difference.

The Vikings are a possible threat: a weak division, an okay defence (20th overall, but first in the league against the run) and a great running back. You could work there. They wouldn’t need you to pass too often, just hand the pig to Purple Jesus. But would the Packers trade you to a division rival? I doubt it.

How about the Jets? Rumors had you going there for a while, although they’ve seemed to quiet down a little. But they’re a bad team, worst of the bunch. They already have two good quarterbacks and you don’t want to be a backup. If you think this is drama, Brett, just try this act with the New York press.

That leaves the Buccaneers. Like the Vikings, they’re a team built around a running back: in this case, Cadillac Williams. But he’s hurt and on the comeback trail. It’s a team where you’d have to throw the ball a lot, maybe take a few hits – Garcia was sacked 19 times last year while splitting duties. That’s as many sacks as the Packers took last year as a team.

Maybe that $20 million to retire was a pretty sweet deal after all.

Look Brett, I’m nobody to tell you if you should or shouldn’t come back. It doesn’t really matter to me. Frankly, I couldn’t care less. But I don’t want to see you tarnish your image either. That’s what all these comebacks can do.

Ali couldn’t pull off the comeback and he was the greatest. Magic Johnson was just a shadow of his former self the second time around. Roger Clemens’ comebacks – one or two, depends on how you count them, with the Astros and one with the Yankees – helped to ruin his image.

Just be careful Brett.

Mark's BCS Bowl Selections

It’ll be announced later today, but this is what the BCS should look like.

By staying idle, and getting a few lucky breaks, Ohio State was able to reclaim the number one ranking in the country. Likewise, LSU was able to launch themselves to the number two spot thanks to a big win and some luck. They should now meet in the BCS title game.

This means that both the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl will get an extra at-large bid. Let’s look at the Rose Bowl first, since Ohio State was ranked number one.

The Rose Bowl is supposed to take the winners of the Pac-10 and the Big 10 divisions. The winner of the Pac-10 was USC, so they get in – and since Ohio can’t, the Rose Bowl gets to choose from an at-large team. For my at-large selections, I went by the AP Top 25, which is what I expect the BCS Rankings to look like.

I suspect they’ll choose Oklahoma, the number 3 ranked team in the country.

The Sugar Bowl is supposed to get the winner of the SEC, but LSU is likely going to the BCS game. Therefore, they get to choose an at-large team – but after the Rose Bowl choose theirs. I think they’ll take the number four team in the country, Georgia. They get to choose another at-large team but go last, since the game is so far from the BCS game. They’ll take Hawaii, who should be left by then.

Let’s go to the Orange Bowl. They get the winner of the ACC and an at-large team. This means that they get Virginia Tech, who won on Saturday, and get the first choice of an at-large, since they’re so close to the BCS. I think they’ll take Missouri.

Finally, the last major bowl game: the Fiesta Bowl. They get the winner of the Big 12 conference and an at-large team. Kansas won the Big 12, so they’re in and I suspect that for an at-large team they’ll choose Florida, the number nine-ranked team in the country.

Just to recap, here are my bowl selections:

Rose Bowl: Oklahoma vs USC
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Hawaii
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas vs Florida
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Missouri
BCS Title Game: Ohio State vs LSU

How did Miami get like this? NFL week 13

It’s too soon to call, but this could be an end of an era.

I’m not speaking about Brett Farve, who went down last night with elbow and shoulder injuries, but about the Miami Dolphins.

There has not been a team to go winless in the NFL since 1978, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to lose something like 22 games in a row, leaving a legacy of futility that has since been approached by just a scant few.

But that was then, before the age of parity. Now, it’s the age of “any given Sunday”, when any team can beat any other.

Look at the standings in the NFL right now and ask yourself how Miami is supposed to happen. In this age of parity, no one team is supposed to go and dominate – or be dominated. That’s why there are so many teams that are 5-6 or 6-5.

It’s partially why no team has gone undefeated and partially why no team has gone winless.

So why are the Dolphins so bad? What is making their team fall apart the way it is?

Well, it’s a dastardly mix of bad planning and bad play with a few lumps of bad luck mixed in.

In 2005, when San Diego put Drew Brees after he suffered a major injury on the open market, the Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints where the two frontrunners.

The Saints got Brees, the Dolphins went with another injured QB who was looking to rebound: Dante Culpepper, who had basically destroyed his knee the season before.

Brees went on to throw for 26 touchdowns, over 4000 yards and for a QB rating of 96.2, his second highest ever, winning comeback player of the year in the process.

Culpepper spent most of the season on the bench as he recovered, playing just four games before fleeing for Oakland. In those, he threw for two touchdowns, a little over 900 yards, by far his lowest totals ever.

By passing on Brees, the Dolphins missed out on a great quarterback and still have issues at the position.

Even this year, it’s impact can still be felt. When Culpepper left, the Dolphins jumped on a trade for Chief’s QB Trent Green, a player who was the odd man out in Kansas City and was supposedly a few days away from being on waivers.

Sure, the Dolphins could have waited and missed out. But by jumping on the trade, one that cost them a fifth round pick, they committed themselves to a 37 year old QB who was coming off a catastrophic concussion.

And, to put it lightly, he was a spectacular failure at QB, passing for five touchdowns and seven interceptions while losing his first four games before suffering another, possibly career-ending concussion.

So, the onus for winning then fell almost squarely on the quarterback, a young man named Cleo Lemon. For five games, he played poorly. Despite throwing for over 1,000 yards and for three touchdowns, he was picked off four times, sacked 10 and completed just 58 per cent of his passes.

The man who replaced Lemon, John Beck, has been even less remarkable, completing just above 50 per cent of his passes and has yet to throw a touchdown.

However, it would be unfair to blame the quarterbacks for this season.

After all, Green wasn’t the only Dolphin to suffer an injury. Running back Ronnie Brown, the lone bright spot for the Dolphins, tore his ACL in October. His replacements, Lorenzo Booker, Patrick Cobbs and Jesse Chatman have all been unremarkable, with just two touchdowns between them since week seven.

Ricky Williams, who could have stepped into Miami and helped to take some of the load away from the receivers and quarterback, was injured in his first game and is gone for the season.

Even the receiving corps for the Dolphins has been depleted. Current team leader in receiving yards, Chris Chambers, was traded to San Diego on October 16 (so, after being away from the Dolphins for over an month, he’s still the leader).

Nobody has emerged as a clear number one receiver for the Dolphins since. While Marty Booker has approached Chambers numbers, he has yet to reach the end zone since week seven or the 400 yard mark.

However, the Dolphins have had some success this season. Kicker Jay Feely has missed only field goals all season. And their defence isn’t too bad, either.

In yards per game, the Dolphins are 16th overall – ahead of Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland, teams that are still competing for a playoff spot. They’re third overall in passing yards allowed – ahead of New England, even.

But against the run, they stink – they’re 30th overall. And they’ve had 277 points scored against them, 27th in the league.

As they head into the last few weeks of the season, the Dolphins have a serious chance of running the table, and finishing without a win. They still have to face both the Patriots and the Bills on the road, and have a home game against the Ravens.

They also have to play the Bengals and the Jets, too. If they are going to get a win, look for it to come against either of these teams.

And look for the Patriots game on week 16. Never before has a team with 15 wins played a team zero wins.

Out for blood - NFL Week 12

Ok, so it’s official. Tom Brady, Bill Belicheck, et al are out for blood. And why shouldn’t they be – they’ve been slighted, been called cheaters, been called poor sports – mercy me, they ran up the score.

But you know, that’s what they do. Winners don’t go out and play to the level of their opponents; they go out and play as hard as they can, day in and day out.

That’s why the Montreal Canadiens won all those games in the late 1970s. That’s why nobody could handle Michael Jordan and the Bulls in 1997.

That’s why the Steelers lost last week and it’s also why nobody can stop the Patriots now.

For too long, Tom Brady has been told he’s a great quarterback – just as good as Payton Manning, perhaps. Receivers looked great when they played with him, not the other way around. And often enough, those same receivers would not look as good on another team.

Okay, so maybe it’s the system Brady plays under. Maybe it’s the coaching.

But maybe it’s because Brady is so good, he lifts those around him.

It would explain this season. Randy Moss came to New England looking like he was washed up, traded away for a draft pick.

While stranded in Oakland for two years, he had just 11 touchdowns and a little over 1,500 yards recieving.

This season alone, he has over 1,000 yards receiving and 16 Touchdowns.

This is what Brady can do with some talent around him. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that players like Deion Branch are untalented – but Brady has never had a singular talent like Moss. Thanks to him, the Patriots have the league’s best offence.

Just this year alone, it’s averaging over 430 yards a game – 300 of them passing - and have over 400 points, leading the league. These are both improvements from last year.

But that’s only half of the game. The Patriots defence has also played exceptionally well. They’re third in points allowed (270), fourth in points allowed per game (15.7) an within the top ten for rushing and passing yards allowed.

They’re getting the job done. They shut down the other team, often early in games. But most importantly – they never give up.

And why should they? After all, they’re out for blood.

How the Argos lost - Notes on the 07 East Final

Nobody thought it would end like this – but nobody foresaw the Argonaut’s fingers seemingly coated in butter, either.
Yes, the Toronto Argonauts, who entered the playoffs winning their last seven games in a row, lost decisively to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in a game marred by turnovers – some three on each side.
As the fourth quarter started, with the Bombers inside the Argo 10 yard line, it looked as if the Bombers were going to try and wrap things up. After all, they led 19 – 1; the game was theirs to lose.
But when Bomber QB Kevin Glenn hurt his arm in the fourth while diving on a loose ball, the momentum shifted, significantly, to the battered Argos.
One monster pass to Arlen Bruce III later, and the game, the Argos and even the fans, roared back to life.
Michael Bishop showed off his powerful throwing arm, driving the Argos some 92 yards to their first touchdown of the game with some long, precise passes, capped off with his own quarterback sneak for the major.
As reserve quarterback Ryan Dinwiddie came in for the Bombers, the Argo fans were on their feet and screaming.
It seemed a lot like the inverse of the last Eastern Final played in the Rogers Centre in 2005. In that game, the Argos led throughout the first half, only to collapse to Montreal – and in particular, to QB Anthony Calvillo – in the second, losing 33-17.
“All of a sudden, this isn’t the Rogers Centre - this is the noise dome,” said CBC’s Steve Armitage.
But Dinwiddie pulled it out. Airing the ball, and running down the clock, he wore down the Toronto defence with long passes. A touchdown pass to Edwards sealed the victory for the Bombers.
Or did it? The ref on the field had to check it out – and then went to the booth for a review. And it was overturned.
And then the Argos grabbed another fumble in their own end.
“Are you kidding me,” shouted CBC’s colour commentator Khari Jones. “That’s their third fumble today!
“They should be blowing the Argos out!”
But Toronto’s ball-handling woes continued, as their receivers dropped passes that would have brought the Argos deep into Winnipeg territory.
Winnipeg’s smothering defence kept the Argos out of the game, clogging the secondary and keeping Bishop under pressure – including a huge sack late in the fourth.
It was an incomplete pass, late in the fourth that sealed it – although, with less then two minutes to play, what could the Argos have done? They would have needed a touchdown, then a field goal – just to tie.
Nonetheless, the Bombers prevailed. They limited the Argos to just 31 rushing yards and keeping the Argo offense smothered, like a heavy blanket put on a fire, for three quarters.
“We played them well all year,” said Winnipeg running back Charles Roberts.
“We took it upon ourselves to come out here and prove them wrong.”
And so, what an upset it was. The Bombers were seven underdogs going into this game, but they played like 14 point favourites. They ran the ball, they passed the ball and they, most importantly, stopped the Argos from doing likewise.
Simply put, they played like champs.
And in the end, that was the only thing that mattered.

One month in and still sleeping - NFL week 5

sleeper – (n): A football team that makes beats teams favored against them on a regular basis, eventually doing better then they were expected to do

See, by definition neither the Rams nor the 49ers were sleepers. They had more people on their bandwagon by the start of September then some teams get all year. Stephen Jackson, Alex Smith, Frank Gore and Marc Bulger were all supposed to fantasy studs and were supposed to make the NFC West the best conference in the league.

Well, shit. Jackson’s hurt, as is Bulger and any of the Rams hopes for the postseason. Down by the bay, Gore has underachieved, Alex Smith is gone for the year and very suddenly Dante Culpepper looks dangerous.

But this is not about him, them or the Raiders. This is about who the sleepers – the true sleepers – really are.

And Tennessee looks like one. They’re 2-1, have a sharp QB and LenDale White is starting to come into his own. Remember, he’s the guy who was platooned with Reggie Bush at USC – the thunder to the lightning.

They’re also coming off a bye week and facing a Atlanta team that’s nothing if hot: they’re ranked 23 in points scored and 21 in points allowed. Granted, Atlanta pulled out a win against a decent Houston team… but so what, nobody goes 0-16.

But teams do go 1-4 every year. And the Falcons, who can’t stop the run – 129 yards a game, 23rd in the league – will be joining that club, too.

Another sleeper? How about Tampa Bay? For a team that nobody gave a chance – and rightly so: they’re barely any different then last years 4-12 team – they’re looking sharp, to the tune of 3-1.

But, with a tip of the hat to Bill Simmons, this could be a Zack Morris team. In that, like the guy who played Zack, they peak too early (after his stint on NYPD Blue, whatever happened to that guy?). Cadillac Williams is hurt and gone for the season. Their QB? Jeff “Two TD in four games” Garcia.

However, they play in the NFC South, as I’m sure everybody knows. And I’m sure everybody knows that they’ll play the Saints twice, the Falcons twice and Carolina once more. And I’m sure that everybody knows that they’ll play such powerhouses as Washington, San Francisco and Houston later on.

And although their 3-1 is misleading since wins against the Rams, Saints should be taken with a grain of salt, this team still has a fighting chance.

But what about the Cardinals, I can hear. Even my dad is calling them now, sending emails titled “what about them Cards?”
Well, what about them? The last-place predictions that they got from ESPN, Athlon and SI? Does that qualify them as a sleeper?

Yeah, maybe, since those predictions have turned out to be pretty accurate. Why, in just a month they’ve gone from 23 to 15 in the ESPN power rankings. Still, I suppose, that’s not all bad: they’re above both the Niners and the Rams, and being just above the fold can still make them a sleeper, I guess.

But I don’t feel right calling them a sleeper.

Perhaps it’s because they’re a team that never loses outright. Against San Francisco and Baltimore, they lost by three points each time. They can keep it close, that’s a given, but can they actually overtake another team?

Even their wins seem odd. Their win against Seattle was a fluke, when Mike Holmgren apparently suffering from temporary paralysis and not calling a timeout on the final drive, letting the clock expire as the Cards kicked a field goal.

And against Pittsburgh, the Cards had a coach who set up the Steelers offence all of last year – who needs videotape when you have friends like that?

Anyway, we’ll know by week six if this team is for real: this week they play the hapless Rams and then the Panthers, who haven’t realized you can throw the ball to anybody who doesn’t line up as a lineman – not just Steve Smith.

Just go for it, already!

I’ve been a reader and a fan of Gregg Easterbrook for a long time now, mostly because he advocates a style of football that I agree with. Namely, a logical version that works all the time in Madden, most of the time in real life and is used rarely if ever in the professional level.

(I also like how when I finish a column of his, an entire morning has vanished, I’ve found out about at least one neat news item I overlooked and I feel about 50 IQ points smarter…)

One of the pillars of his style of football is that on a 4th and short you go for it almost all of the time (ie, not stuck inside your own 30 yard line). It makes sense, since most running plays net you about 3 or 4 yards.

And that’s what the Broncos did on Sunday afternoon. Twice, actually. It was late in the final quarter, Denver had a fourth and two and they went for it. And it worked. Three downs later, they faced the same situation – and a quick pass netted them another first down, keeping their final drive alive and setting up a game winning field goal.

Of course, if they had gone for it on a fourth down (and shorter then either of the fourth downs they went for) instead of kicking (and missing) with about 3:30 left in the fourth, they never would have had to put together such a drive.

(But then again, had they done that, I wouldn’t have a column.)

It was nice, refreshing and kind of exciting to see a team do this, too. The Broncos proved that going for it on a fourth down works, but it’s a lesson that I’m afraid isn’t going to catch on in the NFL, in the NCAA or even in high school. Sure, they got the first down (and a few extra yards) people will argue, but what if they had been stopped? What then, Mr. Reads that Commie Pinko on ESPN.com?

Well, coaching is a job where you’re expected to take some risks. The day you decide that you’re not going to risk anything, that the fear of failing is bigger then the allure of winning, is the day you wake up, realizing that you’re coaching a community college team in Idaho.

As a bit of an afterthought, is it just me or does Gus Johnson have maybe the best resume in recent sports broadcasting memory? First it was the Vermont/Syracuse game. Then it was UCLA/Gonzaga. And then Ohio State/Xavier. Most recently, this Denver/Buffalo game. I wonder what’s next.

Strictly Classified

Maybe it’s just me - and I’m sure it is - but I’ve always been a fan of the classified section of the newspaper. People selling items, all summarily described, to complete strangers. Great buys and items you may not see anywhere else. And a lot of junk.

Anyway, I recently clipped a few items that I felt needed to be shared - maybe somebody out there can make an offer, or two.

WANTED: “Are you an Argo-nut who can throw the ball? We’re looking for you! Must bring own helmet, shoulder pads - balls and recivers will be supplied. No Vicks. Call M. Clemens, KL5-0901”

FOR SALE: “Give this Priest a Home. One Running back, hardly used since 2005, some minor upper damage, 1500 yard potential. Must pay shipping, health insurance. Call H. Edwards, KC9-2121”

FOR SALE: “Duck seeks new pond. Goaltender, like new, great potential. Doesn’t speak English, must supply own translator/mask. MUST SELL. B. Berke, AN9-0011”

WANTED: “Gamble on us! Does your TV station have a hole to fill? Is poker too boring for your viewers? Do you remember a guy named Gretzky? Take a chance on us ! Call us today! G. Bettman, NH3-09123”

PERSONAL: “Are you down tonight? Do you need a clutch tray, a buzzer-beating jumpshot? Or is Spike Lee not excited enough anymore? Give me a call - I’ll be waiting! R. Miller - IN3-9943”

FOR SALE: “One dog ‘mating’ stand. Barely used. Serious inquires only. M. Vick, LS7-0909

Championship weekend - It's gunna be a showdown

It was an outcome that should have been obvious from the start – If indeed the Indianapolis Colts are to go to the Super Bowl, they would only have to go through their old nemesis the New England Patriots.

This whole season kind of makes sense now.

With both AFC teams upsetting their opponents last week – neither home team won – the stage is now set for what appears to be one of the biggest games in recent memory. The Colts, despite having a great offense, could barely manage to score last week and won by the skin of their teeth; conversely, the Patriots did score, coming back from being down 21-14 late in the game, and upsetting a team with maybe the best offense in the NFL.

It’ll be a showdown in Indy on Sunday – and for once, maybe the Colts will have the upper hand.

“Bad dreamer, what's your name
Looks like we're ridin' on the same train
Looks as through there'll be more pain
There's gonna be a Showdown”
ELO - Showdown


AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Sez: Colts (+3)

This will be the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs in recent memory. Both of those games were losses for the Colts – but both teams are in different stages now. The Patriots are in arguably their worst shape in years, having lost major contributors, from coordinators Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini to players like David Givens, Doug Gabriel and – and arguably most important – their clutch kicker Adam Vinitari.

You can see how losing key players such as those has effected the Patriots offense this season – Since posting close to 600 offensive yards (5722) and averaging 27 points per game in 2004 (their last Super Bowl win), their offense has dropped: just over 5600 yards/23 points per game in 2005 and 5300 yards/24 points per game this season.

Defensively, however, they have improved: for example, their yards allowed (on a per game basis) has dropped from 310 in 2004 to 330 last season – but has rose to 294 this year, the same as Chicago’s mighty defence allows. They rush defence has improved as well, going from 98 yards a game in 2004 to 94 yards this year (much better then Chicago). And against the pass they’ve gone from 212 yards/game to 200 – which could prove to be a hassle to the Colts, who are still a pass heavy team.

Speaking of the Colts, they are actually much better team then the one that lost to the Patriots on 2004. This year, with both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne posting big numbers – Wayne has caught 9 TD this year and is averaging 15 yards a catch while Harrison has caught 12 touchdowns (second in the league) and is averaging 14 yards a catch – their offense is one of the most productive in the NFL (3rd in yards per game, 2nd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards).

But while both of their major receivers have caught for more then 1300 yards (Harrison is ranked #2 in the NFL, while Wayne is tied for third), their running game is lacking behind (18th in the NFL with just 110 yards per game).

It’s pretty much for that reason alone that I’m going to back the Patriots. Even though the Colts are at home; even though the Colts are playing much better; even though the Colts are the 3 point favorites… They are still playing the Patriots in January.

My pick: New England

*************************

NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Vegas sez: Chicago (+ 2)

The Bears defence has been great this year – perhaps even superb, especially when it covers for Rex Grossman’s occasional bad game – and their offense isn’t too bad, either, ranking 15th in both total yards and rushing yards, thanks to the duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. Their passing game is somewhat better, ranking 14th, explaining why they score 26 points/game (higher then New Orleans, actually).

Which isn’t to say that New Orleans isn’t any good – they very much are. But while they have a great offense (they have the most total yards, most passing yards and are fifth in points scored per game), defensively they’re weak. They rank ranking 15th in total yards allowed (4917), 23rd in rushing yards allowed (2063) and 13th in points allowed per game (20.1). If they have one bright spot on their defense, it’s against the pass – they rank 3rd overall, with 174 yards a game.

Still, against a Chicago team that is more dangerous because of a powerhouse defense and a solid running game, the Saints have a bit of a chance – but not a big one. The Bears will win this one and play in their first Super Bowl since 1985.

My pick: The Bears

Romo and the Boys / NFL Divisional predictions

Stat of the Week No. 3: From the point Tony Romo was named to the Pro Bowl, Dallas lost all remaining games.
- Greg Esterbrook, ESPN.com, Jan. 9, 2007

As Tony Romo attempted to scramble into the end zone, the Cowboys season flashed before my eyes. I saw Drew Bledsoe choking; I saw Terrell Owens denying that he attempted suicide; I saw Keyshawn Johnson leaving under a cloud; I saw Tony Romo show flashes of brilliance between his flashes of incompetence.

And as he couldn’t make it into the end zone… Well, frankly, I wasn’t surprised. It seemed so typical of the Cowboys this year – to get so close, but finish just oh-so-short.

From their regular season when Bledsoe went down for the count and a young hotshot named Tony Romo, who despite having been in the NFL for a few years (could it be three already?) had never having taken a snap, came in and was fairly solid – even though my main memory will be of him making a pass that looked quite like Magic’s hook shot in game four of the ’87 Finals – and became something of a golden boy, a savior to a Cowboys team that looked ready to sink at any given moment.

And he saved them from sinking, at least for a little while. From the spats that coach Parcells had with Terrell Owens and Mike Vanderjact to a starting QB (Bledsoe) and one of their major off-season signings (Vanderjact) not working out to TO being, well, himself, it looked as if the Cowboys were going to have hard time going .500, at least for a while.

When Romo took over in week 6 the Cowboys were 3-2. In his next start, facing the Giants, the Cowboys lost – and then Romo started to click. He, and the Cowboys, won the next five out of six games. With him at the helm, the Cowboys went on a tear, cumulating with a 38-10 demolition of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where Romo threw for 5 touchdowns and over 300 yards.

But, looking back, that seems to be just where both he and Cowboys peaked. The next week, against the Giants, the Cowboys just squeeked past them, winning on a last second field goal; and while Romo passed for over 250 yards, he didn’t pass for a single TD and was picked off twice.

The next week the Cowboys lost to New Orleans, 42-17. Romo was picked off twice again and completed less then half his passes.

For all of his early wins, since that win over the Giants, Romo has passed for six touchdowns and has been picked off eight times. He’s lost more games then he’s won since he was named to the NFL Pro Bowl – and lost 3 of his last four games this season.

So, what does all this mean? Is Romo really that good – or is he really that much of a goat? I’m not sure, at least not yet. I do know, however, that any Cowboy fan can thank Romo for getting the Cowboys to the playoffs just as much as they can thank him for their early exit.

*********

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions:

NFC
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
My pick: The Saints

If there’s one thing that I’m sure about these days, it’s that I wouldn’t want to be coaching a team that’s on the road against a team like the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have won 5 out of 8 games at home this year. However, they have lost two of their last three at home (their last win being on December 3rd, over San Francisco). Still, they have a great offence (391 yards per game, 25.8 points per game) that’s facing a defence that allows over 320 yards and over 20 points a game. Even with all of the question marks that the Saints have, I just can’t see the Eagles upsetting them, even if the Eagles were at home.

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
My pick: Dah Bears

And speaking of teams that are good at home, we have the Chicago Bears and their frozen Soldier Field vs. the Seahawks. Normally I’d go with the Bears just because of their home-field advantage and their defence. However, Rex Grossman, who has been looking better and better as the season goes on (his week 13 performance notwithstanding) is facing a Seattle defence that is, well, less then stellar. He’ll need a big game to beat the Seahawks, but I expect he’ll come through.

AFC
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
My pick: The Colts

This is the first time that the Colts have been to Baltimore to play a postseason game in years – not since they left the city, in fact – and they won’t disappoint. For all of their question marks coming into the postseason – their run defence, for example – they have looked very good, especially in their shutdown of the Kansas City Chiefs last week. This is a trend that I expect to continue, as they should wallop the Ravens. Why? The Ravens are a team that’s been led by Steve McNair, who while rebounding from his last few seasons is still no match for the Colts defence. And as for their defence, led by Ray Lewis, the Colts are again more then a match – The Colts lead the AFC in yards per game (379) and are second in points per game (26). Receivers Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison have looked good lately (especially Harrison, who had six touchdown catches in his last three regular season games).

New England Patriots @ San Deigo Chargers
My pick: The Chargers

The Chargers are the mirror image of the Colts; they rank second in yards per game (365) and first in points per game (30). And they have the best player in the NFL, LaDainian Tomlinson, doing most of it: he runs for touchdowns, he catches for touchdowns – he even throws for touchdowns. Thanks to him, the Chargers have only lost two games – by a combined six points. The Patriots will have to pretty much focus their entire defence on LT to stop him – and by doing so, they open the door for quarterback Drew Rivers, who has thrown for 22 touchdowns this year, and Antonio Gates, who has caught nine of them. It’ll be tough to keep the Chargers from running away with this game, and I’m sure that Tom Brady will be more then game for it. He comes into this game having one of he better seasons: yardage is down, but his completion percentage is up. And he’s facing a defence that allows over 200 passing yards a game. Regardless, I think that San Diego will be able to eke this one out. However, it’ll be close.

Wild Card Weekend

The resignation of Bill Cower is the end of an era for the Steelers, and it’s the end of an era for me. Bill was the one coach of the Steelers that I can remember, the guy who was there in 1995 during a thriller in Indy… The guy who was there for the Kordell Stewart Era, the guy who was there during heartbreaking losses in 2003 and 2004 – and he was the guy who was there when they finally won it all least year, too.

Sure, this season’s been a bust (I like to call it a transition period – Bettis and Randel El are gone and Big Ben had maybe the unluckiest season of any starting QB this decade), but it was still good. So, Bill, thanks for the memories and best luck with whatever comes next.


With that out of the way, the NFL playoffs are upon us once again – which means that it’s time to get out of New England’s way again (especially since they have home field this year) and that the countdown is on for Colts fans to start sulking. And with that, here’s my predictions for Wild Card Weekend!

NFC
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks
My pick: Seahawks

The Seahawks, despite more then enough injuries to it’s starters (Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck) has still managed not just to make the postseason, but to win their division (the admittedly weak NFC West), meaning they’ll be playing at home against a reeling Dallas squad. Tony Romo, Dallas’s QB, will be forced to play much better then he has in his last few games, and I don’t think that he’s up to the task. The Seahawks will take this one pretty easily.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
My pick: Eagles

The Giants have all but stumbled into the postseason this year, having peaked weeks ago – they’ve lost six of the last eight – and have a locker room that’s full of dispute. With all the destructions thats been happening – from Tiki’s retirement, Eli’s recent shortcomings to Plaxico calling out people in the locker room – the Giants are in a huge mess right now.

However, the Eagles are succeeding when they shouldn’t be – their QB, Jeff Garcia, has been a superb replacement for an injured Donovan McNabb, and their running game is looking pretty sharp. Look for them to win a close one over New York.

AFC
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
My pick: Patriots

Seriously – have the Pats ever lost at home in the playoffs? To a team that only made the playoffs thanks to a nice late-season run (and also to a few losses from some other teams)? No – and it’s going to continue. Last week, in a game that meant nothing to them, they decimated the Titans – a team, that for all intents and purposes is about the same as the Jets are.

The Jets don’t have much of a running game – maybe in a few years, when Leon Washington matures – and their passing game relies on Chad Pennington. Not something I’d want to have on my side when facing a great Pat’s defense. This is a game that the Pats will win easily.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
My pick: The Colts

Even though they’ve been less then stellar the last few weeks, the Colts are still a legitimate threat – Marvin Harrison has had several great games in a row now, netting six touchdowns in his last three games (including three against Cincinnati in week 15). And while their run defence hasn’t been great, Manning and Harrison should do the job nicely.

As for the Chiefs, while Larry Johnson has been good this year, he’s still not at the same level as he was last year. And while they can run the ball well, passing and defence aren’t their strong suits. The Colts will win a close one.

The NFL prediction

Meh.

That's pretty much all I can really say this year - I've been reading way too much; I bought two magazines - two more then I usually do - and I've worked on this for much too long, something like two weeks.

And still, I don't think I'm anymore sure about any of these then I was in August. Or in May. Hell, I don't think I'm any more sure then I was the minute after Super Bowl XL ended.

But here it all is - typed lovingly by division by a college student with less time free then he has to sleep.

AFC

AFC East: The Patriots

This division was the one that was the toughest of them all for me to choose: I like the Dolphins this year - more on that later - but I can't help but to choose the Pats, once again. They haven't lost any key players other then their kicker and a linebacker... And if that was all it takes to kill this team it's a bad sign for Brady's Hall of Fame chances.

The Dolphins improved by signing a QB and it'll be a good race - although I'm not quite sold on the Dolphins defense. The Bills will tank fast while the Jets will pull a Barbaro and break a leg out of the gate.

I'm going to say the order will be like this:

- New England Patriots
- Miami Dolphins
- Buffalo Bills
- New York Jets

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers haven't done much other then cutting the fat in the offseason: they lost Tommy Maddox and Randel El - which means that their WR passing stats will go in the toilet. And hurt or not, Big Ben keeps getting better and better. If this team wins less then 11 games it's time for a new coach.

Otherwise, the Bengals are still good - but, thanks to the new rules on touchdown celebrations, a lot less fun to watch. Baltimore's gotten worse during the offseason (Brain St. Pierre? Mike Anderson?) and Cleveland is, well, bad. Really bad.

- Pittsburgh
- Cincinnati
- Baltimore
- Cleveland

ARC South: Indianapolis Colts

Er, when you have ha;f your games against teams like Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville and you're one of the best teams in the NFL's recent history, you're going to win the division, no matter who your running back is.

Other then them, Jacksonville is a decent team who hasn't convinced me that they're better then either Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver or Miami; Tennessee made a few changes but I don't see them getting ahead of either of the previous teams in the standings and Houston... Well, if nothing else, there's always next year's draft - maybe then the Texans can draft a running back.

- Indianapolis
- Jacksonville
- Tennessee
- Houston

AFC West: Denver Broncos

Why not? They have a revolutionary two-tier running back system (trust me, this is like when they introduced the Relief Pitcher), a solid QB in Plummer, a good defense and they added a few good parts (Javon Walker, Mike Bell) to replace what they lost (Mike Anderson). They're a lock to win their division.

And, again, why not? Kansas City still doesn't play defense; Oakland's still a coach away from being a contender and San Deigo's QB situation looks worse then it did last year. It's not going to be a breeze, but it's not too much to ask for the Broncos.

- Denver
- San Diego
- Kansas City
- Oakland

NFC:

NFC East: New York Giants

Sure, the Giants fell apart in the playoffs last year - but they added bulk to their defense with LaVar Harrington and kept some of their big playmakers with Plaxico Burress and Eli Manning. And sure, Tiki Barber is getting old - but he's still doing a lot better then most running backs that are his age. It'll be close, but I think the Giants have what it takes to win this division this year.

Philadelphia's Eagles look good - last year they were marred by injury and locker-room disputes - but I'm not sold on their offence; will McNabb rebound? Did TO truly carry the team like he thought he did? It's too many questions for me. Dallas will self-implode over TO, Parcells and Bledsoe before week five (I would be surprised as hell if both TO and Bledsoe can successfully work together over the course of the season; it'd be like Larry the Cable guy successfully co-hosting The Daily Show for half a year) and Washington will have a tough go at it - they have a great running back with Clinton Portis, two solid receiving backs... But their offense is still led by Mark "Bledsoe Jr." Brunell.

- New York Giants
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Washington Redskins
- Dallas

NFC North : Chicago Bears

Remember the Bears of the mid 1980s? They had a killer running back in Walter Payton, sure, but who else? Jim McMahon? Willie Gault? No - they won because of their defense, which is exactly what the 06 Bears are planning - and will - do. Thanks to their powerful defense, the Bears can get away with just having a couple weapons - they have a solid running game - in a seriously weak division.

Otherwise, the Packers should continue their general decline down towards irrelevance - you can thank their aging QB for that - while Minnesota enters a rebuilding stage, thanks to the recent losses of their major offensive stars (Culpepper, Moss, et al). And Detroit... Well, the Tigers are doing pretty well this year.

NFC South: Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are a real threat this year - nobody seemed to notice that they had a great defense and that there was more to the team then just Steve Smith. Not that it really matters; Smith is fantastic and, if healthy, carry almost any team. The Panthers will make easy work of everybody.

On the other side of the NFC South coin, the Atlanta Falcons will have a decent season - nothing special, I'm afraid - while the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have fun at the bottom. Sure, both of them have some great running backs - but neither of them have what it takes to get past Carolina.

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks

I hate myself for this - no Super Bowl loser has repeated in ages and the Seahawks have a tough schedule and Sean Alexander is a ACL Tear waiting to happen. But still - they play in a division against the St. Louis Rams, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals. You can pretty much chalk up 6, maybe 7 wins right there.

Speaking of the Cards, I'm not buying this "They're a sleeper" nonsense. They have Kurt Warner, a QB who's too green to be a starter right now and a great running back who I suspect will be bad with the Cards line in front of him. St. Louis will surprise people, but to do that they'd need to do what, win six games? And the 49ers... Well, they're rebuilding. Still.

Playoffs:

First a lesson: I've always enjoyed playing games on both computers and on consoles - but my experience is pretty much limited to sports games or RTS games. So tonight, when I got invited to a Halo party, I assumed that I could just switch from one to the other. After all, how different can it be?

Turns out it's a lot different.

The point here is that some things don't transfer over too well - and sometimes what cuts it in one place doesn't in another. That said, here's the playoffs (But first, a quick recap):

NFC
East: New York
North: Chicago
South: Carolina
West: Seattle
Wild Cards: Philadelphia, Atlanta

AFC
East: New England
North: Pittsburgh
South: Indianapolis
West: Denver
Wild Cards: Cincinnati, Miami

Championship games: New England over Indy; Carolina over Chicago
Super Bowl XLI: Chicago over New England