Nightmare Series

In what now seems like a long time ago - my high school days - I used to date this girl whose parents were a lawyer that liked sailing and a teacher that had this talent, of a sort, for turning a phrase - like when she described a party that was thrown by one of her sons: a horrid mess of loud music, broken glass and the police breaking it up in the hours of the morning. It was, in her words, a "Nightmare Party".

And right now, the Edmonton Oilers/ Detroit Red Wing series is starting to look like a nightmare series.

Remember in 1987, when Pat LaFontaine scored deep in the fourth overtime to beat the Capitals? Orin 1990, when Petr Klima scored in triple OT in the Stanley Cup finals? Or even when Dave Elliot scored in double OT in game three of the 1990 quarterfinals? All of those were the longest games of the series - and the only overtime games. I can't honestly remember a time when a #8 seed even took a #1 seed to two double OT games in the first three games of the series. I swear, this thing is going to be perfect as a DVD set or a marathon special on ESPN Classic.

This series is starting to look like something different then the other matchups - has there ever been a #1 seed that was so evenly matched with a #8, perhaps more evenly matched then any other matchup possible in the current playoff tree? I'm going to venture a guess that there isn't - for several reasons.

The first reason is that the Red Wings are like the "Brokeback Mountain" or the "Lost" of pro hockey: not especially overrated, but not as good as the stats (or reviews or viewership or popular opinion) would have you believe. The Red Wings finished the season with 124 points, by far the best in the league - but look at the division that they played in:

1) Detroit: 58 wins, 16 losses, 8 Overtime losses - 124 points
2) Nashville: 49-25-8 - 106 points
3) Columbus: 35-43-4 - 74 points
4) Chicago: 26-43-13 - 65 points
5) St. Louis: 21-26-15 - 57 points

Three of those teams didn't just not make the playoffs, they finished in the bottom of the league:

1) Detroit - 124 points
2) Ottawa - 113 points
...
25) Columbus - 74 points
26) Boston - 74 points
27) Washington - 70 points
28) Chicago - 65 points
29) Pittsburgh - 58 points
30) St Louis - 57 points

So whereas teams like Ottawa faced playoff teams like Buffalo (#4 eastern seed), Montreal (#7 Eastern Seed) and the almost-playoff bound Toronto (#9, two points behind the #8 seed) on a regular basis and still came away with over 110 points, Detroit played three of the bottom five teams of the league on a regular basis and got over 120 points. It's not that they're a bad team, but they had a fairly light schedule - they played Columbus, Chicago and St. Louis 8 times this year, winning all but three(!) of those games, two of them in either overtime or in a shootout (where the losing team still gets one point) - and were pretty much a lock to make the playoffs from game one.

Yes, those were games that like the CBC colour commentator guy said last night - or was it this morning? - "You gotta win if you wanna get in the playoffs", but my point is that unlike the Oilers, the Red Wings got to play subpar teams on a regular basis thanks to the NHL's new (or as I call it, the "Why the fuck are the Leafs playing the Bruins again?") schedule and may well not be as good as their Presidents Trophy indicates.

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My second point is pretty much the same as my first; the Oilers are better then the #8 seed usually is. Unlike the Red Wings, they play in a fairly tough division:

1) Calgary - 103 points
2) Colorado - 95 points
3) Edmonton - 95 points
4) Vancouver - 92 points
5) Minnesota - 84 points

Out of those five teams, three made the playoffs and the fourth would have made them in the Eastern Division - and Edmonton had to play each of them eight times this year. For the Oilers - and the Flames and the Avalanche - points were harder to come by then they were for the Red Wings, as they were playing teams of better quality (that entire division finished above the bottom three teams of the Central Division) on a much more regular basis.

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My final point is the age factor: The Red Wings are an experienced team that is comprised mostly of older players. Both of their starting goaltenders are 33 years old, their average age is 31.7 years old and they have two starters who are over 40 years old, whereas the Oilers only have two players that are older then 36. And while experience surely counts for something, when you have a player that played in the 1987 Rendez-Vous series (and wasn't even a rookie then) you can't expect that experience to compensate for the fatigue that older players accumulate in a long, multiple overtime game.

Indeed, as players like Chris Chelios log large amounts of ice time - over 30, maybe even 40 minutes - you can expect them to both slow down and take a few penalties, leading to more scoring chances for the younger team.

So due to those factors, this is quite possibly the most even match of the playoffs; and this round will not the Mike Tyson fight (over fast and before you know it) that the 1-8 matchup usually is, but will be more like an Ali-Foreman fight that keeps going on and on - or, as the mom of one of my former girlfriends would have said, like a Nightmare party that never seems to really end. After all, this isn't going to be a series that has one marathon 4OT game that seems never to end; it'll be one with double and single overtimes with more overtimes then either team will get on their own in the rest of the postseason.

NBA Playoffs Preview Special

Basketball has long been one of my more guilty pleasures - no, scratch that: Guilty is the wrong word entirely... It's a sport that although I enjoy watching and reading about, I am terrible in both my physical ability to play and my knowledge about the sport. I'm pretty sure that I have a general idea about the NBA - like who's who - but once I get into the specifics, I'm woefully unprepared: For example, I wouldn't be able to tell you who was better at free throws: Dominique Wilkins or Chris Bosh or name three separate rules, let alone define them. Hell, the main reason I even know what I know now is thanks to the NHL Lockout of 2004, when I needed to watch something during the long winter nights... But I still think I know a fair amount; I know that the Clippers are surprisingly good - for once -, I know that the Pistons are fantastically great and I know that the Raptors - indeed, the only NBA team where I can name more then a handful of players - are 'really hurting', as my dad would say.

And on that note, here's my predictions for the first round of the NBA Playoffs:

Eastern Conference
#1 Detroit Vs. #8 Milwaukee
My Uninformed Pick: Detroit

As I understand it, the Pistons are the best team in the NBA right now and are arguably the dynasty of the 2000's, much like the Boston Celtics of the 1980's or the Chicago Bulls of the 1990's, and that the NBA Championship is theirs to lose - and they're playing a team that squeaked into the playoffs with a record under .500. Detroit will win this - and if they don't, the city planners in Milwaukee better set a parade route set up for when the Bucks win the Finals.

#2 Miami vs. #7 Chicago
My Uninformed Pick: Miami

Shaquille "Officer" O'Neal is still a huge force on the floor - somehow escaping the lame duck status that his new off-court job as a cop might give or the fact that him and Joe Sakic are the only remaining active people on my "Athletes that I thought were cool when I was a kid" list - while Dwyane Wade is not only a budding superstar, but a bona-fide MVP candidate to boot - and even though Chicago has a good defense and an outside shot at winning four games, it won't be enough.

#3 New Jersey vs #6 Indiana
My Uninformed Pick: Indiana

I know it's all to painful for my fellow Raptor fans to admit, but Vince "V.C." Carter is still a fantastic player and teammate Jason Kidd is solid to boot and will be a good match for the ever-competitive Pacers. But the Pacers have Jermaine O'Neal, Stojakovic and some guy I've never heard of named "Jeff Foster" who has put up good numbers - and since I hate "VC", I'm going to go with the team that has two great players I know of and one that I don't.

#4 Cleveland vs #5 Washington
My Uninformed Pick: Cleveland

Remember when Lebron James first played a NBA game and it made it onto "The Daily Show"? Or when the Bullets changed their name for no good reason to the lamest name in pro sports today - somehow managing to beat out the "St. Louis Blues"? Right - and who would have thought they'd be playing each other in the 2006 playoffs? Well, say what you will about the Cavs relying on Lebron - a strategy that seemed to work pretty well in Chicago, if I remember right - he's still better then pretty much anyone that the 'Wizards' can stick up against him, including Mr. "Party-poker-planet-online.com" Arenas.

Western Division

#1 San Antonio vs #8 Sacramento
My Uninformed Pick: San Antonio

First, can someone please explain to me just why Sacramento has a basketball team? Are there enough fans around in southern California to support all four teams (Clippers, Kings, Lakers and Warriors)? And if Sacramento can support a basketball team, then why doesn't Buffalo or Pittsburgh have a team? Seriously, someone email me by clicking here if anyone can explain this. Oh, and San Antonio is the best team in the West right now while the Kings main claim to fame is the winner of the Coolest Mustache in the NBA Award, Ron Artest.

#2 Phoenix vs #7 L.A. Lakers
My Uninformed Pick: Phoenix

This is pretty much the most offensive thing out there since "The Aristocrats" went into wide release - both teams have high scoring superstars and pretty lousy defense - It'll just be a battle of what works better; Nash passing the ball to the other players or the other players passing the ball to Kobe. Expect at least one game where the score is something insane like 170-169.

#3 Denver vs #6 LA Clippers
My Uninformed Pick: Denver

Here's another question for all you readers - Let's say the Clippers win here and face the Lakers; how does the "home court advantage" work? Will they play the Clipper games somewhere else? Will they only let in people with Laker jerseys? Will they move the entire series to a neutral location, like San Jose? And as much as I'd like to know, it's too bad that I never will since the Nuggets will win this series, thanks to their MVP Carmello "Coolest name in pro sports" Anthony.

#4 Dallas vs #5 Memphis
My Uninformed Pick: Dallas

Remember back a few years ago - I'm pretty sure it was 1998 - when that guy cried at the draft because he was drafted by the Vancouver Grizzlies? And yet here's the same franchise moved some 3000 miles east, seeded higher then the Pacers and the Lakers - but despite having a few good weapons, the Grizz are unusually horrid in the postseason (0-8, if I remember right) and will fall to a Dallas team that really seems to coming in the postseason on a hot note.

Playoff Boogaloo - Quick Look

Seeing as how the playoffs start in about, oh, 4 hours from now I'm pretty much out of time to make any kind of a legitimate, fully-written and professional prediction about the playoffs; that is why I'm doing this: a little blurb about who will win without any of the meat to it... When I have some time (Tonight? Tomorrow?) I'll get down to some hard writing and get something good up - but for now, here's the quick hits...

Eastern Conference:
Ottawa vs Tampa Bay
My Pick: Ottawa

Even with the loss of Dominic "Over the Hill" Hasek, the Senators just keep getting better; Ray Emory once looked very spotty as a #2, let alone a #1 but he's proved himself as a solid goaltender and may even be the starter next season in Ottawa - while Tampa Bay has no such luck in net this year with Grahame. Look for the Ottawa offence to explode against him.

New York Rangers vs New Jersey Devils
My Pick: Rangers

As good as Marty Brodeur has been this year, he hasn't been as good as Lundqvist has been - and he doesn't have the same powerful offense in front of him. And while I expect this to be a low-scoring series, I don't expect that the Devils will be much of a threat to the Rangers

Carolina vs Montreal
My Pick: Montreal

Huet has been the best goaltender - okay, maybe not the best, but he is right up there anyway - in the last few weeks of NHL play and he should be able to keep players like Staal at bay - plus you can never really count out Koivu these days, anyway. It'll be close - expect at least one multiple Overtime game.

Philadelphia vs Buffalo
My Pick: Buffalo

Robert Esche has had a season that was not quite up to par; but it was still good enough to get him this far. But no longer - the Sabres are a team that in another division would have ended up winning something like 12 more points and are really quite efficient at scoring. They'll take this one, but not without a fight.

Western Conference:

Detroit vs Edmonton
My pick: Detroit

I'm going to call Detroit's season a lot like the San Diego Padres in 2005 - play in a weak division and you'll end up in the post season even if you're not that good: and while Detroit is a good club - Hell, they have been for something like 15 years in a row now - playing against teams in Columbus, Chicago and St. Louis all year really inflated their ranking much higher then it should have been; look for this series to bring them down to Earth as they have to really work to beat Edmonton.

Dallas vs Colorado
My Pick: Dallas

Put it simply - Everything evens out over time. The Canadiens got ripped off when they traded away Patrick Roy (even if he did pull a T.O.) but they got it back by giving away Theodore in the steal of the year. And Dallas, who has excellent goaltending and a great offence, will make quick work of the former Nordiques.

Calgary vs Anaheim
My Pick: Calgary

Have you ever seen one player carry a team so much? It's like the Flames are winning these days in spite of a lackluster offence, all thanks to Mikka Kiprusoff's fantastic goaltending. And with the Ducks having a pretty solid goaltender in Giguere this may turn out to be the new Penguin/Flyer rivalry: a series that has games that go well past midnight, Western Time. But the Flames have experience and a pretty solid defense corps, giving them the edge.

Nashville vs San Jose
My Pick: San Jose

I'm going to keep this short, since the series will be too: Without Vokoun the Preds have no chance against a team that has both the Art Ross winner (Thornton) and the Rocket Richard winner (Cheechoo).

See Ya, Pat

Before I get rolling on this, I just want to make a few things perfectly clear: He was a good coach - you can't be in the NHL as long as he has been without being good - and in a tough year in Toronto, he did a pretty decent (some would go so far as to say a "good" job) with some bad parts...

But here's the kicker: He only managed to do a good job.

Bob Gainey has done an excellent job in Montreal, taking over from Claude Julien halfway through the season. Ron Sutter has done a superb job in Calgary by first taking a #8 seed that barely made it into the playoffs just one goal away from the Stanley Cup and then making them even better this season. Tom Renny has done a fantastic job in New York, turning a team of underperforming veterans into a fast-paced youngish team that not only has almost all the right parts, but is a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

Pat Quinn just barely managed to take a team that was barely afloat to just under the playoff bubble in a frantic late-season win streak - yes, a good job, but not nearly enough to compete in the new-look NHL.

Nevermind this streak of postseason births for Toronto; the Blues managed to get in for 25 seasons in a row and it did a whole lot of good for them; they're now at the very bottom of the league with nothing but one classic game on ESPN Classic Canada (1986 Conference Finals, Game six against the Flames) a few honored numbers (#14 Wickenheiser, #2 Al MacInnis, #11 Brian Sutter) and a few memories to show for it: No Cup Finals, no rings and barely any Conference Finals (1986, 2000).

Pat Quinn, for better or worse, is a lot like that: He's taken his teams to the postseason many, many times but has never won a Stanley Cup - he took the Islanders to the limit in 1980 and later took the Canucks to a seven game series against the Rangers in 1994, but was never that close with the Leafs - not even against the Hurricanes in the 2000 Conference Finals.

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"Everyone is responsible" - John Ferguson Junior, on the 2005/06 Season

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Who is responsible for the failure of the Leafs, not just this year but for seemingly every year. I wasn't alive when the Leafs last won a cup; my father wasn't even the age I am now. But every year the fans of the Leafs seem to think that maybe this is the year, that maybe this trade is the one we needed, that maybe it'll all work out this time... And every year it never does.

Pat Quinn has shown that the Leafs fans that he is a good coach - but he was never quite good enough, if you know what I mean. He was good enough to get us there year after year but was never good enough to win there year after year. He was a bad GM in his short time in Toronto - who can manage to forget the bad taste left in our mouths after Phil Housley and Doug Gilmour went down in their first game with the team, never to play another game in the NHL. He's proven that he is stubborn when relied on experience over potential time and time again, seeking to give the Leafs a band-aid when they needed stitches - Even this season he almost pulled one of his old tricks, trading for Luke Richardson when the Leafs needed some help on their blue line.

He never seemed to learn his lessons until it was too late - time and time again he would trade away draft picks, prospects and the like for experienced players that just never seemed to pan out or to play for any length of time at all; and that was his undoing.

Nevermind the streak then; his legacy with the Leafs will not be how many wins they had, how many times they made the playoffs or what prospects they hung onto - it will be for his participation in the trades and signings for players that so helped the Leafs: Alexander Mogilny, Phil Housley, Eric Lindros, Wendel Clark, Doug Gilmour, Ron Francis, Brian Leetch, Ed Belfour, et al.

Did you really expect anything else?

I had a column - well, the outline of one anyway - all ready in my head for tonight’s game against the Senators. I was going to call it “Zero Hour” and say that’s it do-or-die time for the Maple Leafs, that they have to win this game if they want to stay alive, that everybody’s hoping for a win, just don’t fall apart now and especially not against the Senators.

Turns out that wasn’t enough.

Toronto did win tonight and did so convincingly with a 5-1 victory that was a 5-0 shutout for most of the game - but Tampa Bay won too, in overtime, and that was it. No more math, no more graphs, no more “What-if” scenarios - in the time it took for Martin St. Louis to score the Maple Leaf’s season ended. Now all that’s left of it is just a meaningless game against Pittsburgh .

This game means very little now - even for Leaf fans, who are no doubt thrilled that the Leafs finally beat the Senators, who wanted to see the team in the playoffs again. Of course the Leafs had no chance of making the postseason at all - they never did, really - but that rally from deep in the pack sure made it seem otherwise, if just for a few days. But whatever. This has been a disaster of a season for the Leafs and Co. - Just as the team is showing that it can finally win games, players like Tie Domi - a player who brings little to the table other then his physical skills - refuse to fight, to do their job. This team just couldn’t get anything right this at all.

Here’s to next season.

The Best Ever

Well, it’s bound to happen sooner or later; I guess that I really should get to it now, while the topic is still fresh at hand and the sky empties itself all over my lawn…

This will be the year that Barry Bonds surpasses the 714 home run mark set by one Babe Ruth - that is if both nature stops conspiring against him (two games rained out thus far) and if pitchers get smart (Intentional walk or sinkers) or “smart” (hard fastball inside and low - or maybe at the knees). And while the evening that Barry hits #715 won’t be the brightest day in baseball history, it sure won’t be the darkest day either.

Yes, Barry Bonds played unfairly to get to where he is now, perhaps even cheating his way to his 700-odd home runs. And yes, he may very well be the biggest ass - although I have never met the man, I’m willing to bend to his public persona - to happen to baseball in some time, his getting past Babe Ruth - or even Hank Aaron, for that matter - is not the worst thing to happen to baseball. It would even be hard pressed to make it onto a TSN ‘top ten’ list on such a topic.

Barry Bonds quite simply worked the system; he cheated when it was okay to do so. And that’s if you even want to call it cheating (a term that usually implies that someone broke or bent a rule for success). This allowed him to hit 73 home runs in 2001 (A number that he has never come close to before or since) and is now allowing his knees to fall apart like a 78 Chevette on the fast lane in rush hour. It did not do much else for him, really. For example. his OPS (on base + slugging) has been over 1.000 since 1992 - meaning that he’s been virtually a run machine for well over a decade now.

But it is the common perception that Barry Bonds is, well, the closest thing that baseball - and maybe ever sports in general - has to a clear-cut antagonist. When he hits home run 715, 756 or even if he makes it to 800 our perception of him will not change one iota. This is not like the other scandals that baseball has had - like when Pete Rose bet on the Reds or when Shoeless Joe Jackson took a bribe - because we are dealing with a guy who people hate. He’s like a one-man New York Yankees; you have to respect his talent, but you hate him all the same.

So now Major League Baseball has a dilemma facing it pretty much unlike any other before: How does it recognize one of the great athletic feats of the 21st century when the person is a almost-universally hated figure who is only there (most likely, anyway) because you were willing to turn a blind eye towards his methods? Do you recognize it as legitimate? Do you put a disclaimer next to it (“Note: This record may have been set with the aid of Bovine Growth Hormones”?)? Or do you just ignore it? Well… there’s no easy answer, or at least an easy one facing “Bud” Selig. Baseball went ahead and banned the aforementioned Rose and Jackson, but that was a more clear cut situation: both Jackson and Rose knew that what they were doing was illegal.

And that, in short, is the problem: What Bonds did, as wrong and as unfair as it may well have been, was not illegal. Baseball was turning a blind eye to steroids during those years - and when Bonds set the single-season record, there was no asterisk next to it. When Mark McGuire hit 70 in 1998 there was no disclaimer or sponsor pulling out - so why is there now? Barry Bond’s steroid days - which were only just alleged in the first place- are long gone now and so will his playing days in not too long. And love it or hate it, he’ll surpass Babe Ruth and maybe even Hank Aaron legally - unless he takes a fastball a little too low or fails a test or what have you - and it won’t be the best thing for baseball, but to in order to do anything to it you would have to do the same to the entire “drug-ball“ era of the late 1990s/early 2000‘s.

And if nothing else this record will become to represent two things: One, it will be baseball’s lasting legacy to their willingness to overlook a problem when it meant immediate profit (the home run chase of 1998 or 2001, for example) until that problem because so big that the United States Senate had to step in. Two, it will be lasting legacy of a man’s willing to exploit every loophole he could - everything from his arm-pad that allows him to crowd the inside of the plate to his “flax-seed oil” - in order to become the best ever. It’s just a question of which one we’ll remember the most.

(I used baseball-reference.com to check some of the stats for this - for those who care)

Nevermind the playoff tickets: This season is done

Well, folks, it finally happened: the Maple Leafs of Toronto have not made the playoffs. Yes, there’s still seven-odd games left to play and yes, it’s still mathematically possible for the Leafs to sneak into the #8 spot – but that would require two teams (The Atlanta Thrashers, who remain ahead of the Leafs in the #9 spot and the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are the #8 seed) to have massive collapses, something close to the Blue Jays in 1989 (who lost something like 15 of their last 15 games) or like the Winnipeg Jets in the 1990 playoffs (who blew a 3-1 series lead to the eventual cup-winning Edmonton Oilers) but today, despite another win (the Leafs have got at least a point in something like seven games in a row), even the most optimistic Leafs fan has to admit something to themselves: The Leafs have about the same chance of making the playoffs – let alone winning the Stanley Cup – as the Columbus Blue Jackets do (Who were officially eliminated yesterday from playoff contention).

But this is for the best, isn’t it? The Leafs need to rebuild their entire team and with some luck this season – one that even casual fans will be glad to put behind them – will finally be the wakeup call that Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment (MLSE) so needed. Even the bright spots this year – Jean-Sebastian Aubin going four for five (his only loss coming against the Bruins on Thursday night) or Alexander Steen having a great rookie season (indeed, one of the best since 1996/97, when Sergei Berezin had 41 points) – has been overtaken by the many dark spots of the year: Ed Belfour losing five straight games in pursuit of his 448th win (so he could pass Terry Sawchuk on the career wins list), Eric Lindros having another injury-plagued season, the Leafs losing every match to their rival Ottawa Senators or Mats Sundin taking a puck in the eye in the first game of the season, for example.

The failures this season weren’t just limited to small events, either: key forwards such as Jeff O’Neill or Matt Stajan underachieved all year as the Leafs went for something like 7 games without an even-strength goal. The entire defence came to rest almost entirely upon Brian McCabe – who, predictably, wasn’t able to keep it together for the entire season. Even the goaltenders were inconsistent: while Ed Belfour had his worst season ever, Mikael Tellqvist was sparingly used until the tail end of the season, where he still managed to prove himself to be Ed Junior – bright at times, but then likely to drop a few games when they’re needed most (like against Montreal, for example). Even the management failed to produce: the Leafs failed to trade off McCabe – who will likely sign elsewhere as a free agent this summer – and were barely able to add any depth where it was needed most – the blue line (Luke Richardson – their only major acquisition - is a stopgap solution at most).

But whatever – this season's outcome is better for the general psyche of the Leafs fan then any realistic postseason outcome would have been: it would be a nightmare for the Leafs fan to see his – or her – team fall apart while playing the Ottawa Senators or the Buffalo Sabres in the first round. And now the Leafs will have a better draft pick, to boot. So relax: The Blue Jays have improved their team and we can all sit back and wait for the inevitable collapse of the Senators.