Dissecting the dangerous effects of hype

I've been trying to get a Super Bowl column out for a few days now, but it just wasn't coming. Perhaps this is because I'm tired of hearing the storylines, so tired I stopped reading anything coming out of Tampa the day after both conference championships. Perhaps because it doesn't really matter to me how and why Kurtis met Brenda; that Larry Fitzgerald has a sportswriter dad; that the Cardinals are the underrated team of the year or whatever.

I just honestly haven't been paying attention. So, with that, here's my super bowl piece.

Going In
Without really looking at any number or stats or any real prep work, I like the Steelers. I think their defence should be able to handle anything Arizona can throw at them - or to Fitzgerald - and while I don't know how well Roethlisberger will play, I kind of think it's secondary.

If I was going to make a paraell of this one to another, I'd say it's like the XXV, between the Giants and the Bills. Not in the sense that they're closely matched, or in a storyline way or anything. But in a great defence against a great offense and not much else. That was a game won the Giants not because of a missed FG, but because the Giants offense was able to keep the Bills offense were only on the field for eight minutes in the second half.

I can see that happening again. So much has been said of the Steelers defence and almost as much has been said of the Cardinals offense. But really, I think those two might cancel each other out. This could be a game won because of much time the Steelers offence can burn up.

A Cursory Glance at the Numbers
My favourite stat - by a mile - is the point differential; the number of points scored by a team minus the points they allow. My reasoning for looking at it is that I think the bigger it is, the better the team is. This season it was +124 for the Steelers; +1 for the Cards.

That's exceptionally low for a playoff team, let alone one in the Super Bowl. I think it kind of explains why the Cards were just a 9-7 team this season. But that's just the season, not the playoffs.

For just these playoffs, it's suddenly the opposite: +20 for the Steelers, +33 for the Cardinals. The Cards are starting to look a lot better. Keep in mind though, that the lion's share of that difference is from their demolishing of the Panthers in the Divisional round; combined, the other games were won by just 13. I still think these two teams match up better then either of those suggest.

Let's move to something a little more tangible: Kurt Warner vs the Steelers defence. If the Cards are going to win this game, it will be thanks to Warner's arm. In all three of their playoff games, their running game has been effective, but not dominating. But Warner has had three great games in a row. Larry Fitzgerald has exploded in the recent past, including a three major day against the Eagles. And it's interesting that Warner's worst game (220 yards, 2 TD on 21 of 32 passing) was during their biggest win.

But Carolina was middle of the road against the pass; 16th in the NFL. The Eagles were third overall, allowing just over 180 passing yards a game; Warner picked them apart with a 279 yard, 4 TD on 21 of 28 day. He knows how to pick his spots.

At the same time though, Warner picked up the bulk of those in the first half of the game, when the Cards took a 24-6 lead to the locker room. In the second half, Warner was 8 of 12 for 76 yards. I think it's worth noting more then a few of those were short passes that led to big YAC numbers, but I don't have specific information handy.

Other side of the ball. Pittsburgh is the number one-ranked defence against the pass. They're allowing about 157 passing yards a game; the number two defence allowed nearly 180. They're allowing about 14 points per game, again the best in the league. They could pose trouble.

A look at the effects of hype
Every year, it seems to happen: one team gets an inordinate amount of hype. The Rams used to get it - they were the Greatest Show on Turf (pity they only scored 23 points in their Super Bowl win). For a while the Patriots got it. I vaguely remember the Steelers getting a lot, but Drive for Five or One for the Thumb kind of roll of the tongue, so it's kind of justified.

But this year, nobody wants to be surprised. I think so many people were taken aback by the Giants upsetting the Patriots, they want to call it again. I know I'd like to; I picked the Patriots to win that game and I'd do it again. It's an impressive thing, being able to call an upset before it happens. It's trendy. It's like telling your friends that Slumdog Millionare is going to get a best picture nomination before any of them had heard of it.

I think that's whats happening this year. So many people are picking the Cardinals to win; maybe because it's a trendy pick. Maybe people are choosing it because other people are. Because they want to be right if an upset happens.

A quick look at who's taking who's taking the Cardinals:
King Kaufman, Salon.com
Gregg Esterbrook, ESPN
Michael Silver, Yahoo.com
Will Litech
Dan Shanoff

Who's taking the Steelers
John Clayton, ESPN
Tony Kornheiser (I think)
Peter King, Sports Illustrated
Most of the writers at SI, ESPN, CBS Sports, and most of what I'd call the sports writing establishment

So what does this mean? Ultimately nothing; people known for their outside the box take on sports are tending to fly towards the Cardinals while people who are established are taking the favourite. I don't mean to sound like I'm hating on anybody here, but it seems this bowl might be hinging on the gap between the two groups; that bloggers are willing to take a bigger risk and pick the Cards almost as if they can't agree with the establishment.

Or maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the establishment doesn't want to go out on a limb; they're reactionary as opposed to proactive. I don't know.

Wherein Chuck D has never let me down
The Cardinals are a good story. Kurt Warner is a good story. So it the one about Fitzgerald's dad. They're fun, they're the underdog and I get why so many people like them.

But they are hyped. They may be the buzzsaw, to use Litech's term, but that doesn't make the Steelers a piece of pine. I don't like hype. Whenever I have bought into the hype and gone against my gut, it never seemed to end well - when I bought into Reggie Bush and took USC over Texas; when I decided that the Rockies were a team of destiny a couple years ago. So I'll go with my gut.

Why? My problem with the Cards is their defence. They are allowing more and more yards each game. 250 against the Falcons, 269 against the Panthers and over 450 against the Eagles. If I were a Cardinals fan, this would worry me.

Pittsburgh isn't a offensively dominant team in any way, really, but they're about as capable as any of those teams. If they can put up 23 points against the Ravens, they can put up at least that many against the Cards, I'm sure.

So, I don't care that the cool kids are choosing the Cardinals. It's cool that a dad gets to cover his son in the Super Bowl, but it doesn't mean he'll play any better; his dad has been writing about him for a long while, apparently. I'm going to take Chuck D's advice here and not believe the hype.

I'm taking the Steelers.

NFL Notebook, Week 15 – Was it a miracle in the Meadowlands?

The AFC East has been, without a doubt, the best division in football this year, perhaps this decade. For most of the season, all four teams were thick in the race, although on Sunday one was officially eliminated.

The New York Jets, led by a resurgent Brett Farve, needed a win on Sunday about as much as they ever had, as there was a three-way tie for first between them, the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

And with the Patriots playing a limp Oakland team and Miami playing an underwhelming San Francisco 49ers, the Jets really needed a win, just to keep pace.

They got it, but just barely.

Before we get to that, we should look at their opening drive. Football played to it’s finest by the men in green. A quick pass to the sideline, for a first down. Draw runs up the middle, for gains of four or five. Farve’s passing was crisp and sharp and opened up the secondary early on, giving Leon Washington and Thomas Jones space to run.

Their opening drive was 72 yards in just over three minutes. Their second drive was 70 yards in eight plays, taking only four minutes. Before the first ended, before Buffalo knew what hit them, it was 14-3.

Which isn’t to say the Bills were limp, either. In between those two scores, Buffalo ate up the clock on a four minute drive of their own, getting a field goal.

What does that mean? Simple: a first quarter without a punt, without a turnover. Both sides were playing for their playoff lives – if Buffalo lost, they were officially out of the playoffs. Thusly, they played like their season depended on it: two quick majors in the second and they led 17-14, before the Jets retook the lead on a Leon Washington score late in the half.

So, early indications were for a shootout, the kind of game the Jets are suited for: they have a better quarterback and more weapons downfield to throw to then the Bills.

But throughout the second half, both defences settled down, and the match got quieter for most of the half. After starting the game five-for-seven, Farve would finish .

So in a game where the defence clamped down, it seems fitting that it would win the game: with the Bills leading 27-24, JP Losman dropped back to pass on a second and five, was sacked at his own 16, fumbled, with the ball falling into the hands of Ellis, who ran it home for the game-winning major.

Not exactly how you plan to beat a six win team, sure, but the Jets will take what they can: both the Patriots and Dolphins won too: nothing was really settled in the AFC East, at least not yet. Had Losman held on the ball, the Jets season could well have ended.

Still, the Jets showed they are a sharp team, at least sometimes. They can stretch a decent defence thin early on and get on the board quickly: come playoff time, that will count.

But their defence was, for most of the game, subpar. Against a lackluster Buffalo team, who started a backup quartberback, they had a hell of a time stopping the run. While Losman was picked off three times, none of those came in the first half, when the Bills scored two majors in the second – one on a Losman pass, the other on a Losman scramble. That doesn’t bode well for their playoff hopes.

In two weeks, the Jets are at home against the Dolphins. Already it looks like their season is all but leading to that match. If they want to stop the vaunted Wildcat offense, they’ll need to stop the Dolphins early and often, which they didn’t do on Sunday. And it nearly cost them their season.


Later on Sunday, the Baltimore Raven / Pittsburgh Steelers rivalry flared up again, this time with the AFC North on the line.

Two fairly evenly matched teams, their previous game went to overtime, when the Steelers won 23-20. That was week three, though. When the Browns were still a team to beat. Before the division came down to the Ravens and the Steelers.

Needless to say, with two of the best defences in the game, this was bound to be a tough, physical game – if you’ll excuse the cliché, smashmouth football.

The Ravens spend most of the game stacking their defensive line, with five or six men right at the line of scrimmage. Granted, they usually went with a three-man rush, but this pressure hurt Pittsburgh’s offence. Their running game was going nowhere fast and Ben Roethlisberger was hurrying his passes. As it was, Big Ben was sharp and accurate, if his timing was a little off.

He would finish with over 200 yards and was 22 of 40 – but had it not been a few drops here and there, for a few jarring hits that dislodged balls, it’s likely he could have completed 25, even 30 passes. Against a great defence, then, Big Ben raised his game – when the Ravens blitzed, Ben answered with a quick outlet pass into the holes the linebackers left.

But on the other side, Ravens QB Joe Flacco was also under pressure. His line gave him great protection and all but shut down the Steelers James Harrison, who had been averaging a sack a game – and had two and a half when he last played the Ravens.

But the Steelers secondary had him over a barrel. Flacco was having a hard time completing passes, especially in the red zone, and the Ravens never once got into the end zone, kicking three field goals from less then 30 yards out.

This isn’t to say that the Steelers clearly outplayed the Ravens. They had no luck in close either, and their two field goals were from about the same distance. Instead, the Steelers needed a little help to win: two controversial calls helped buoy them to victory.

One was for a first down that kept a scoring drive alive: despite never appearing to cross the first down line, officials on the field gave the Steelers a first down. And when challenged, the call was upheld.

The other was for a touchdown. When Santonio Holmes scored the game winning TD, he made a catch at about the goal line, his feet behind it but the ball obstinately in front. But an official review gave the Steelers a touchdown; Holmes had possession with the ball breaking the plane.

By getting this tough win, the Steelers look as good as anybody going into the playoffs. This was, more or less, a playoff game in all but name, and the Steelers played great, with a final drive for the ages. This win has to make them preemptive favourites for the AFC title game; if they can beat this Ravens team on the road, they’ll likely to beat whomever they face when they play at home in the playoffs.


Other notes: The Jets had the toughest win in the AFC East, but the other two had wins of their own. The Patriots are still as good as ever, as Cassell seems to be growing into his role as starting QB. The Patriots win over Oakland was nowhere near as close as the 49-26 score shows. Should the Jets flounder, don’t be surprised to see the Patriots make a run for the title game… By beating Tampa Bay in overtime, the Falcons kept their playoff hopes alive, and helped the NFC South leading Carolina Panther. Tampa has dropped two of their last three and looks to be falling back to Earth fast: those two losses were to division rivals. And the Panthers have a two game lead over both the Falcons and Bucs… Houston’s stunning win over the Tennessee Titans wasn’t really all that stunning of a game – one touchdown, neither team having 400 total yards, and neither offense looked as dynamic as they had all season. But with the division already wrapped up, I wouldn’t take too much away from the Titans losing.

Quoth the Ravens? - Weekly NFL Notebook

Forgive the cliche, but these Baltimore Ravens, they're a weird team and they've got me all muddled up. First time all season I've seen them play and they disappoint, albeit against one of the best teams in the NFC, the Giants.

The phoneme rookie Joe Flacco, who was perfect for a stretch these past few weeks, came fast and sudden back to Earth, throwing two picks (one returned for a touchdown) while the vaunted Raven defence looked old and decrepit against the continual running attack of the Giants.

Take that 77 yard rush by Ahmad Bradshaw against at the start of the fourth: Lewis over-attacked his man and was woefully out of position. Bradshaw got a nice block and boom, hit a seam (or daylight, or whatever cliche you like most) and it was damn close to a touchdown.

So what happened to the Ravens defence? Up until that game, they were good against the run... but they couldn't make stops. The Giants line was carving into them, opening holes for both Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Their linebacking corps was thusly overworked - sometimes it looked as if they didn't know what to do. They bit early and found themselves attacking the line earlier.

Which helped him had a solid passing day (13 of 23, for 153 yards, one TD and one INT), but remember - it was the rushing that decided this game. It gave the Giants an early lead, helped them keep the Ravens off the field and was the major reason they won.

Where do they go from here? Down, way down. They’re six and four, but a bad six and four. They’ve already gotten to beat up on helpless teams like Cleveland, Cincinnati, Oakland and Houston. To my eyes, their only solid win was over Miami, back in October. One gets the idea that maybe they've already peaked as a team.

We'll soon find out if they're wheat of chaff, for here comes the hard part of their schedule: Philly, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Jacksonville. Four teams they'll be hard pressed to beat. It’s likely they’ll still finish second in the North, but it’s unlikely they’ll make the playoffs.

*****

Once again, Houston and Indianapolis had a wild shootout affair. And just like last time, it ended with a Houston miscue.

For reasons what I don't quite grasp, bottom-of-the-barrel Houston always comes out swinging against the Colts. In a game where defence meant almost nothing for the majority of the game, both teams racked up yardage and points: Houston had over 350 total yards and Indianapolis had 474 yards, with Payton Manning throwing for 320 of them.

Think about that: 320 passing yards. That's more then Oakland, Chicago or Cincinnati managed all day. That's a monster day, yet he only had two majors. One might think that he would have had more scores... but one would be wrong. You don't get that many yards without a strong running game, one that makes the linebackers cheat up and plug holes. And Joesph Addai's line for today (105 yards, one TD) reflects this.

Houston, on the other hand, had a more balanced game: 177 on the ground, 179 in the air. And although Rosenfels had a quiet day, he played well - except for his last drive. He completed 70% of his passes and helped engineer a good game for the Texans: they were outplayed on the other side of the ball by a wide, wide margin (nearly a ten minute difference in time of possession, for example) yet they were in the game right until the end.

But the end was the same as last time, although not quite as heartbreaking for Texan fans. Rosenfels was picked off, for the first time in the game, with just 38 seconds on the clock. But other then that, it was a good drive - quick outlet passes, moving the chains, not eating a lot of time of the clock.

All in all, it was fun game to watch. I like the Texans; they're a lot better then they get credit for. At least sometimes, anyway. In a year or two they could be a team to watch. And the Colts look like they're back. Forget the Titans being undefeated, the Colts have a good shot at the division in my books.

*****

A tough, physical game in Pittsburgh came to an odd close, with the league’s first 10-11 score. Pittsburgh looked good throughout, and the final score doesn’t reflect how well they did actually play.

It’s odd. With a low score, it’s easy to think this was a defensive battle. But it really wasn’t. It was a slogging kind of game, one where both teams went on long marches.

Ben Roethlisberger looked great for the first half, at one point throwing for something like 10 of 11. He finished the game with 31 completions and 308 yards.

But yet, their passing game was lacking: he didn’t throw for a major and was under constant pressure: he was sacked four times. The majority of his completions went to (no surprise) Hines Ward, who finished with 11 catches and 124 yards.

One might think that when the Steelers dominated so much that they’d have won easily. But it was a weird game: Pittsburgh was able to move around the field with ease, but didn’t get into the end zone all game, unless you count an early safety.

No, it was San Deigo, who despite having half the yards the Steelers did, a six minute difference in time of possession and a lousy game from Phillip Rivers (15 of 26, 159 yards and two INT) led for most of the game and led late.

It was all about LT on this snowy, ugly day in Pittsburgh. He scored the lone touchdown of the day, a three yard score up the middle, and it was the most important score of the day. LT spent a good chuck of the match pounding the ball up the middle, never for much, getting chunks of turf stuck to his helmet.

This was latest in a string of odd games for the Chargers, who seem to be getting more then their share of bad breaks this season. That missed call against Denver; a heartbreaking comeback by Carolina in week one; that surprising Miami upset, when the Dolphins broke out everything in the playbook.

The Chargers are now four and six, second in the AFC West. That’s two wins behind both Denver and anybody likely to win the wild card. But don’t count them out: they’ve only lost one game at home thus far – and four of their next six are at home. They can still bounce back.

*****

Other Notes: After jumping to the Cincinnati/Philadelphia game, Fox cut away again from an overtime game. When will the NFL realize that cutting to a close game, then cutting away as per some anarchic rules, doesn't serve make any sense? What's the point of going to going to it, getting the viewer invested in it, then leaving them hanging? I suppose there's the bonus aspect of it - but wouldn't going to an extended postgame show serve the viewer just as well? ... The Seahawks didn't play well, but they certainly took advantage of their chances: they scored three touchdowns on drives of less then 20 yards ... Somebody on the Raiders has to, absolutely has to show Jamarcus Russell how to manage a game. The Raiders last drive, where Russell hung around and watched time tick away was maybe the worst clock management I've seen this year. If the Raiders want him to pan out, they should really look to finding him a mentor, since he doesn't seem to be learning on the job… Can the Titans go undefeated? Who knows – their rushing game is looking atrophied, but their passing game is dynamic. Just when one thinks they’ve got them figured out (a clock controlling team that outsmarts you), they shift gears and become some other beast entirely. If I had to bet, though, they’ll lose two of their last three, when they let Collins rest up for the playoffs.