It was an outcome that should have been obvious from the start – If indeed the Indianapolis Colts are to go to the Super Bowl, they would only have to go through their old nemesis the New England Patriots.
This whole season kind of makes sense now.
With both AFC teams upsetting their opponents last week – neither home team won – the stage is now set for what appears to be one of the biggest games in recent memory. The Colts, despite having a great offense, could barely manage to score last week and won by the skin of their teeth; conversely, the Patriots did score, coming back from being down 21-14 late in the game, and upsetting a team with maybe the best offense in the NFL.
It’ll be a showdown in Indy on Sunday – and for once, maybe the Colts will have the upper hand.
“Bad dreamer, what's your name
Looks like we're ridin' on the same train
Looks as through there'll be more pain
There's gonna be a Showdown”
ELO - Showdown
AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Sez: Colts (+3)
This will be the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs in recent memory. Both of those games were losses for the Colts – but both teams are in different stages now. The Patriots are in arguably their worst shape in years, having lost major contributors, from coordinators Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini to players like David Givens, Doug Gabriel and – and arguably most important – their clutch kicker Adam Vinitari.
You can see how losing key players such as those has effected the Patriots offense this season – Since posting close to 600 offensive yards (5722) and averaging 27 points per game in 2004 (their last Super Bowl win), their offense has dropped: just over 5600 yards/23 points per game in 2005 and 5300 yards/24 points per game this season.
Defensively, however, they have improved: for example, their yards allowed (on a per game basis) has dropped from 310 in 2004 to 330 last season – but has rose to 294 this year, the same as Chicago’s mighty defence allows. They rush defence has improved as well, going from 98 yards a game in 2004 to 94 yards this year (much better then Chicago). And against the pass they’ve gone from 212 yards/game to 200 – which could prove to be a hassle to the Colts, who are still a pass heavy team.
Speaking of the Colts, they are actually much better team then the one that lost to the Patriots on 2004. This year, with both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne posting big numbers – Wayne has caught 9 TD this year and is averaging 15 yards a catch while Harrison has caught 12 touchdowns (second in the league) and is averaging 14 yards a catch – their offense is one of the most productive in the NFL (3rd in yards per game, 2nd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards).
But while both of their major receivers have caught for more then 1300 yards (Harrison is ranked #2 in the NFL, while Wayne is tied for third), their running game is lacking behind (18th in the NFL with just 110 yards per game).
It’s pretty much for that reason alone that I’m going to back the Patriots. Even though the Colts are at home; even though the Colts are playing much better; even though the Colts are the 3 point favorites… They are still playing the Patriots in January.
My pick: New England
*************************
NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Vegas sez: Chicago (+ 2)
The Bears defence has been great this year – perhaps even superb, especially when it covers for Rex Grossman’s occasional bad game – and their offense isn’t too bad, either, ranking 15th in both total yards and rushing yards, thanks to the duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. Their passing game is somewhat better, ranking 14th, explaining why they score 26 points/game (higher then New Orleans, actually).
Which isn’t to say that New Orleans isn’t any good – they very much are. But while they have a great offense (they have the most total yards, most passing yards and are fifth in points scored per game), defensively they’re weak. They rank ranking 15th in total yards allowed (4917), 23rd in rushing yards allowed (2063) and 13th in points allowed per game (20.1). If they have one bright spot on their defense, it’s against the pass – they rank 3rd overall, with 174 yards a game.
Still, against a Chicago team that is more dangerous because of a powerhouse defense and a solid running game, the Saints have a bit of a chance – but not a big one. The Bears will win this one and play in their first Super Bowl since 1985.
My pick: The Bears
Showing posts with label New Orleans Saints. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Orleans Saints. Show all posts
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Monday, December 04, 2006
Seperating the wheat from the chaff
Week 13 is when the real season begins.
By now we've already seen who the pretenders, the winners, the dark horses and the losers are in the NFL. This is when the real competion begins for the few spots left in the NFL playoff race - and when teams have to give it all to get in.
Who's in - NFC Edition:
Division Winners:
NFC Central + Bye Week: Chicago Bears
Even with Rex "third string on anybody else" Grossman as their QB, dah Bears have locked up their division again. The real question now is if their defence can keep it up. Either way, it's a given (since they already clinched the spot) that they'll make the postseason.
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
I never thought I'd say this - but how many people thought they would, right? - but Tony Romo is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year. He'll carry the Cowboys into the playoffs for sure; they'll play a slumping Atlanta team, a subpar Philadelphia Eagles and the terrible Detroit Lions - and one game against a good New Orleans Saints. All things considered, I expect the Cowboys to win their division with a 11-5 record.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
The Saints offence is great this year - Reggie Bush has been on fire the last few games (including a great 4 TD showing on December 3rd) and Drew Brees is on pace for being the QB of the year, not to mention how good Duece McAllister, Marques Colston and Joe Horn have been. Their main problem is that they're facing a bit of a tough schedule towards the playoffs (Dallas, Washington, New York and Carolina), so they won’t go in on any kind of a roll. Expect them to finish 10-6.
NFC West + Bye Week: Seattle Seahawks
Even without their two best players (Matt Hasselbeck and Sean Alexander) the Seahawks are still a force to be reckoned with, especially when they have as easy a second half as they do: they play Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego and Tampa Bay – and they should easily win three, if not all four, of those games. Look for them to enter the postseason on a positive four-game winning streak, with a record of 12-4.
Wild Card: New York Giants
Yes, the team appears to be on a skid – but they’ve lost their last two games by a total of six points (all year they haven’t been able to win close games: they either win by a touchdown or they lose by a field goal, generally). And while having them run the table would be nice – it won’t happen, but it’d be nice – they’ll pull out wins against Philadelphia and Washington and squeak into the playoffs. Final record: 8-8
Wild Card: Carolina Panthers
They’re good, but their schedule (Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans) and conference record (4-4) aren’t. But their divison record is (3-1). They’ll finish 8-8 and just make the cut.
Who’s out (and why):
Atlanta Falcons – Vick’s better then ever, but his receivers aren’t. They’ll finish 8-8 and just miss the cut.
Minnesota Vikings: They looked good for a bit, but won’t have enough to finish. They’ll finish 7-9 with wins against St. Louis and Detroit.
St. Louis: The early underdog favorites looked good early on, but have faded fast (does anybody even count them anymore?). They’ll finish strong, beating Oakland and maybe Washington (maybe) but it won’t be enough (look for them to give St. Louis a good game, though): 7-9 overall.
AFC editon will be up by the end of the week.
By now we've already seen who the pretenders, the winners, the dark horses and the losers are in the NFL. This is when the real competion begins for the few spots left in the NFL playoff race - and when teams have to give it all to get in.
Who's in - NFC Edition:
Division Winners:
NFC Central + Bye Week: Chicago Bears
Even with Rex "third string on anybody else" Grossman as their QB, dah Bears have locked up their division again. The real question now is if their defence can keep it up. Either way, it's a given (since they already clinched the spot) that they'll make the postseason.
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
I never thought I'd say this - but how many people thought they would, right? - but Tony Romo is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year. He'll carry the Cowboys into the playoffs for sure; they'll play a slumping Atlanta team, a subpar Philadelphia Eagles and the terrible Detroit Lions - and one game against a good New Orleans Saints. All things considered, I expect the Cowboys to win their division with a 11-5 record.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
The Saints offence is great this year - Reggie Bush has been on fire the last few games (including a great 4 TD showing on December 3rd) and Drew Brees is on pace for being the QB of the year, not to mention how good Duece McAllister, Marques Colston and Joe Horn have been. Their main problem is that they're facing a bit of a tough schedule towards the playoffs (Dallas, Washington, New York and Carolina), so they won’t go in on any kind of a roll. Expect them to finish 10-6.
NFC West + Bye Week: Seattle Seahawks
Even without their two best players (Matt Hasselbeck and Sean Alexander) the Seahawks are still a force to be reckoned with, especially when they have as easy a second half as they do: they play Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego and Tampa Bay – and they should easily win three, if not all four, of those games. Look for them to enter the postseason on a positive four-game winning streak, with a record of 12-4.
Wild Card: New York Giants
Yes, the team appears to be on a skid – but they’ve lost their last two games by a total of six points (all year they haven’t been able to win close games: they either win by a touchdown or they lose by a field goal, generally). And while having them run the table would be nice – it won’t happen, but it’d be nice – they’ll pull out wins against Philadelphia and Washington and squeak into the playoffs. Final record: 8-8
Wild Card: Carolina Panthers
They’re good, but their schedule (Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans) and conference record (4-4) aren’t. But their divison record is (3-1). They’ll finish 8-8 and just make the cut.
Who’s out (and why):
Atlanta Falcons – Vick’s better then ever, but his receivers aren’t. They’ll finish 8-8 and just miss the cut.
Minnesota Vikings: They looked good for a bit, but won’t have enough to finish. They’ll finish 7-9 with wins against St. Louis and Detroit.
St. Louis: The early underdog favorites looked good early on, but have faded fast (does anybody even count them anymore?). They’ll finish strong, beating Oakland and maybe Washington (maybe) but it won’t be enough (look for them to give St. Louis a good game, though): 7-9 overall.
AFC editon will be up by the end of the week.
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