Wherein the AFC East gets a clearer, but only by a little - NFL Notebook

With their backs against the wall, the Patriots played dynamite, sharp and looked as good as ever - but it could all be for naught.

The AFC East is crowded and good, maybe the best division of the decade, and 11 wins could not even be enough now. Three of it's four teams played for their seasons today, all three tied with identical records - and the fourth had a chance to play spoiler, facing a team with the same record; the AFC West leading Denver Broncos.

At home, the Patriots took on the NFC West champion Arizona Cardinals. On paper, a good match for New England - the Cards were good, but not that good. They clinched their division with games to spare - but their division looked like this:

Arizona: 8 wins, 6 losses
San Fransisco: 5 wins, 9 losses
Seattle: 3 wins, 11 losses
St. Louis: 2 wins, 12 losses

The Patriots have a better, a more dynamic offence. A better defence, too: they allowed a little over 300 points so far this season, nearly 100 less then the Cardinals. They played better, too, putting on a clinic for the Cards.

In poor weather, Don DeLillo once wrote, always take the underdog. Poor weather neutralizes advantages. But during a snowstorm, the kind of weather that has always been an asset for them, the Patriots demolished the Cardinals. I can't stress this enough - it looked like a junior varsity team taking on a state champion at times. Not just big plays, either (although there was their share), but little ones, things that added up.

Item. Last drive of the first half. Less then two minutes left, the Patriots get the ball on their own 29 and lead 28 to nothing. Cassel passes quickly out to his left, a 14 yarder to Gaffney. Three plays later, another one up the left to Gaffney for 16. Both times, Gaffney was in single coverage and ran a quick route - a medium hook, with him turning around to meet the ball - and a step out of bounds. Simple, fast, smart football. Two after that, 20 yards to Welker, same idea on the right side. In about a minute, the Patriots have moved from their 29 to the Cardinals 20 - without using a timeout. They kick a field goal and go ahead 31-0 as the clock expires.

That was a perfect two minute drill, ran against a division champion. And the Patriots made it look easy, like it was an inter-squad game. It didn't even mean anything, really. The outcome wasn't in doubt by this point. It was practice for the playoffs. By a team that could miss them, against a team bound for them.

But getting there isn't just in their hands. If the Patriots are to sneak in, they'll need some help. All throughout this blowout, the ticker keeps flashing updates from the Kansas City/Miami game, which by all indications, appears to be a shootout. Tied as they go into the fourth at 31, this game is a surprise: have the Dolphins fallen back to Earth? They were six-point favourites over the Chiefs, a two-win team. And they're tied? At 31? The Dolphins would score a major about halfway through, though, and held on to win, keeping the deadlock on top of the AFC East alive.

So, as the Jets took the field in a snow-blown Seattle, they dropped to third, just a half-game back; the Dolphins surged to first, as they held the tiebreaker over the Patriots.

And it couldn't have looked good for the Jets. A cold, windy day is not ideal by any means, but for a quarterback like Brett Farve, it's even worse: inaccurate at the best of times, these conditions have to be be hell for the aging QB. Still, a win over a two-win Seattle would set up one final game for the season, played between the Jets and the Dolphins, a game that would almost be a title game in all but name, with the winner going into the playoffs.

But as the game - a mostly dull, defencive affair, dominated by the weather - winds down, I have only one question: does he have it in him? Does Brett Farve, who all but defined clutch quarterbacking in his career, have another comeback left in him?

Down by a major and at their own 12, the Jets get the ball back. They need a win, just to keep pace, just to keep their season alive. Herein follows the drive:

- Farve sacked. The pocket collapses up the middle.
- A quick reception up the middle to Coles, in a pass from the Jets own end zone
- Farve drops back in the shotgun, pumps, waits, moves, pumps again, has all kinds of time but can't get anything going and throws an incomplete pass
- 4th and four, on their own 20, the Jets go for it. Farve drops back, waits, dodges a hit, pump fakes, throws downfield, a long bomb into double coverage, Gus Johnson yells and... the pass hits Coles in the numbers, a perfectly thrown pass, but he can't hang on and it falls to the ground, incomplete

There goes the game, right? This is where it falls apart, isn't it?

Or was it earlier? When the Jets kicked a 45 yard FG that was called back on a false start, and instead of going for the kick, five yards longer but with a kicker who just nailed a kick up the middle, punts it away. Was it there, when the Jets could have made the game 10-6 but didn't, that the game ended? Perhaps not officially... but in an abstract sense? Well...

Maybe it was just a typical trap game. Holmgrin's last home game as a head coach. Held in a stadium where the Seahawks are said to have an advantage (the crowd's noise). With the weather in the Seahawks favor.

Remember DeLillo's advice on games held in poor weather.

Other notes: The season can sometimes be cyclical - the Chargers host the Broncos next week, a rematch of the week two game that the Broncos just barely won on a blown whistle... The Cowboys are in complete free fall after a loss to the Ravens on Saturday night - a game they should have won. They can still sneak in (a win over Philly is all they need) but at this point, can they do it? If I had to bet, they get in and lose in the Wild Card game... Atlanta soundly wins a pivotal one against Minnesota. They've clinched a spot - and if Chicago loses on Monday, so do the Vikings.

Broncos pull out a win with help - Monday NFL Notebook

With the score 38-31 against them, and the clock under 90 seconds, the Broncos could see their game slip away.

Quarterback Jay Cutler dropped back, rolled to his right and – horror of quarterback horrors – whiffed on the pass. He didn’t fumble the ball; it slipped out of his hands, fell to the ground and was scooped up by linebacker Tim Dobbins. The Chargers get the ball back, run out the clock, win the game.

But wait – the referee, prematurely blew his whistle, which means the ball is dead at the Charger 10-yard line.

It also means that Denver gets a second chance. It should have been a fumble, perhaps, but that’s how it sometimes goes.

Two quick passes later, it’s a one-point game. And even more prematurely then the offical’s whistle, Dick Enberg yells the game is tied and headed to overtime. Both Jay Cutler and head coach Mike Shanahan disagreed and went for two. The Broncos nailed it, on a short pass to Eddie Royal, the same man who caught the touchdown.

It’s a shame that this game will likely me better remembered for botched call then for San Diego’s comebacks from being down 21-3 early on – and 31-17 at the half.

All in all, both quarterbacks were firing on all cylinders. Cutler passed for 350 yards and for four touchdowns; Phillip Rivers for 377 and three majors. However, LeDainian Tomlinson toe was a constant bother, and he only had ten rushes, just 26 yards.

A great game, yes, but only the tip of the weekend’s matches. An overtime finish in Seattle. Aaron Rogers leads the Packers to his first comeback win. Matt Cassel wins his first pro start since high school. The Colts come back after looking dead in the water. An overall great weekend of matches.

And as the afternoon comes to a close, it raises a series of questions: What happened to Detroit? Is Aaron Rogers better then Farve? And what teams are for real – and what teams are faking?


Let’s go to Detroit first, where the Lions seem to be in self-destruct mode. At this point last season, the Lions were 2-0, Kitna had passed for 3 touchdowns and over 500 yards. Granted, they were on their way to a season where they finished 7-9, but at least they seemed like a good team at the time.

Now, they seems like a team that can’t do anything right. Not only are they 0-2, but also they’ve already allowed 82 points firmly showing that they have the worst defence in the NFL thus far. Keep in mind, only one team has allowed over 70 points and none have scored more then Green Bay’s 72 (more on that later).

This isn’t an area where they show many signs of improvement. Their defence is letting other teams dominate the clock – against Green Bay, for example, they gave up an eight-minute drive in the first quarter and had less then 25 minutes of their own.

Looking at game charts on ESPN, the Lions offense seems to have a tendency to run plays out of the shotgun set, which to my mind speaks of a lack of faith in the offensive line. I suppose the 62 total rushing yards also does, too. Remember – you need a running game, and thusly a good offensive line, to control the clock. For a team to be successful in the NFL, they must control the clock.

Granted, teams have been successful without one in the past. The Oilers of the early 1990s were one. Their Run-N-Gun offense emphasized the pass, thanks to the arm of quarterback Warren Moon. But they were a team who fell apart in the playoffs year after year: in 1991 to the Broncos, in 1992 to the Bills in a memorable collapse and finally in 1993 to the Kansas City Chiefs.

So take from that what you will – you can get to the playoffs with passing, but that’s about all.

On the other side of the game, the Packers are finding themselves in the best case scenario. Aaron Rogers, for all the talk that surrounded him, has played exceptionally well this year and is leading the team that could be the best in the conference.

Granted, they haven’t beaten anybody of substance yet – just Minnesota and Detroit, two teams that missed the playoffs last year. The big game is next week, then they play Dallas in a game already scheduled in prime time. But right now, they are the favourites for their division. Rogers looks better then Farve did all last season, and has already had a monster, 300+ yard, three touchdown game against the Lions.

It’s early – too early for me to make this call, really – but he’s looking like he can take the Packers to the playoffs. Granted, he’s in a weak division (Detroit is soft and I’m not sold on Chicago) so it’s not a really outlandish statement, but there you go.


It’s early in the season, which means that time is ripe for trickery and fakery in the standings. The Giants and Cardinals are 2-0, while Seattle is winless.

Of all these teams, the Giants are looking the most like a contender. Their defence, which has allowed just 20 points against so far, looks like the best in the NFC – even without Michael Strahan. Granted, they’ve played two fairly weak teams, the Rams and Redskins. And the bulk of the schedule is daunting: two games against Philadelphia and Dallas, an away game in Cleveland and an early bye week could all prove to be problems. But they’ve got a good opening slate, and could end up 4-0: next up for them are the freefalling Bengals and the collapsing Seahawks.

Who are themselves in a state of flux. A heartbreaking loss at home to San Francisco, where they lead 14-3 after the first but couldn’t stop a newly-high powered Niner offence, is only the latest of their woes: Hasselbeck is battling a bad back; Julius Jones is struggling to fill the hole left by Shaun Alexander; a porous secondary that allowed nearly 300 yards of passing on Sunday.

Even their vaunted home-field advantage wasn’t much help – maybe it rattled the Niners at then end of regulation, but it sure didn’t in overtime when Joe Nedney nailed his third kick of the day (he had missed only one) to win the game.

This is new for the Seahawks, who have feasted on a weak division for the last several years. Their defence, which was seventh in the NFC last year in total yards, eighth in passing yards, and second in points allowed, feasted on the weak offences of San Franscisco and St. Louis. But this year, with Arizona and the Niners looking better then they have this decade, they’re slowing down – giving the Cards a chance to catch up.

Which they finally should be doing. After a couple seasons as a trendy sleeper pick that never panned out, the Cards were an afterthought after the preseason, when Matt Lienart lost his starting job to an ancient Kurt Warner. But they’ve snuck up on unsuspecting teams – granted, two easy ones in San Franscico and Miami. But with Anquan Boldin set to build on a nine-touchdown, 850+ yard 2007 and Edgerrin James as a solid, grinding running back that can help them control the clock, they appear set to make a solid run. Finally.

Of course, all of this is barring injuries.

Seperating the wheat from the chaff

Week 13 is when the real season begins.

By now we've already seen who the pretenders, the winners, the dark horses and the losers are in the NFL. This is when the real competion begins for the few spots left in the NFL playoff race - and when teams have to give it all to get in.

Who's in - NFC Edition:
Division Winners:
NFC Central + Bye Week: Chicago Bears
Even with Rex "third string on anybody else" Grossman as their QB, dah Bears have locked up their division again. The real question now is if their defence can keep it up. Either way, it's a given (since they already clinched the spot) that they'll make the postseason.
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
I never thought I'd say this - but how many people thought they would, right? - but Tony Romo is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year. He'll carry the Cowboys into the playoffs for sure; they'll play a slumping Atlanta team, a subpar Philadelphia Eagles and the terrible Detroit Lions - and one game against a good New Orleans Saints. All things considered, I expect the Cowboys to win their division with a 11-5 record.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
The Saints offence is great this year - Reggie Bush has been on fire the last few games (including a great 4 TD showing on December 3rd) and Drew Brees is on pace for being the QB of the year, not to mention how good Duece McAllister, Marques Colston and Joe Horn have been. Their main problem is that they're facing a bit of a tough schedule towards the playoffs (Dallas, Washington, New York and Carolina), so they won’t go in on any kind of a roll. Expect them to finish 10-6.
NFC West + Bye Week: Seattle Seahawks
Even without their two best players (Matt Hasselbeck and Sean Alexander) the Seahawks are still a force to be reckoned with, especially when they have as easy a second half as they do: they play Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego and Tampa Bay – and they should easily win three, if not all four, of those games. Look for them to enter the postseason on a positive four-game winning streak, with a record of 12-4.
Wild Card: New York Giants
Yes, the team appears to be on a skid – but they’ve lost their last two games by a total of six points (all year they haven’t been able to win close games: they either win by a touchdown or they lose by a field goal, generally). And while having them run the table would be nice – it won’t happen, but it’d be nice – they’ll pull out wins against Philadelphia and Washington and squeak into the playoffs. Final record: 8-8
Wild Card: Carolina Panthers
They’re good, but their schedule (Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans) and conference record (4-4) aren’t. But their divison record is (3-1). They’ll finish 8-8 and just make the cut.

Who’s out (and why):
Atlanta Falcons – Vick’s better then ever, but his receivers aren’t. They’ll finish 8-8 and just miss the cut.
Minnesota Vikings: They looked good for a bit, but won’t have enough to finish. They’ll finish 7-9 with wins against St. Louis and Detroit.
St. Louis: The early underdog favorites looked good early on, but have faded fast (does anybody even count them anymore?). They’ll finish strong, beating Oakland and maybe Washington (maybe) but it won’t be enough (look for them to give St. Louis a good game, though): 7-9 overall.

AFC editon will be up by the end of the week.