Championship Weekend

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (Vegas Line: Denver -3)
My pick: Denver

It's been a great run for the Steelers - they've battled through Greg Maddox's last few starts, injuries to key players and played some of the toughest teams the NFL has to offer on the road (The Bengals, the Colts) - but, baby, it's got to end sometime... and this week is it. Denver has a powerhouse of a running game, one of the most criminally overlooked QB's in Jake Plummer and a defence that has shut down running games (Pittsburgh's strong point) all season long. And as good at the Steelers have been - much better then the #6 ranking they got at the start of the playoffs - they'll show that they're unable to stop the rushing tandem of Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson.
Granted, Pittsburgh will be able to score some points (This won't be a repeat of the Giants/Panthers 21-0 blowout Wild Card Game) but I suspect that Denver will not only shut down the Steelers running game, but will force interceptions from Big Ben.
Sure, Pittsburgh has a chance - and as a fan, I'd love to see them win. I'd love to see Bettis get one Superbowl ring before he retires. But when I look at both teams, and especially Denver's offence, I can't see that happening.

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (Vegas: Seattle +3.5)
My pick: Carolina

Two words: Steve Smith. He's unstoppable, like Bo Jackson in Techmo Bowl or some user-created Madden character with stats that unrealistic and impossible. If you can shut him down, especially now that DeShaun Foster is done, then you can shut down the Carolina Panthers... But if you can't (and both the Chicago Bears and the New York football Giants learned this) you're in for a world of hurt. And come on, he did that swordfighting thing a while back - this guy is both awesome and unstoppable.
The Seahawks might prove to be a challenge - but then again, they nearly lost to the Giants (yes, it's bad logic, but look at it like this: The Giants are a team that has both great receivers [Plaxico Burress] and a pretty good QB [Eli Manning] - and they let them almost beat them - at home!) Unless the Seahawks can seriously shape up (They played a rough game against a tired Redskins team, exhausted by 7 weeks of playing do-or-die football) they'll be unable too both stop Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme - they're ranked 25th overall in passing yards allowed (3559), 12th in completion percentage (58%) and are tied for ninth overall in receiving touchdowns allowed (18).
Shaun Alexander, as great as he may be, will not be at his best - he's running against a team that allows less then 4 yards a carry and just over 90 yards a game - he'll be hard pressed to get many points, let alone match Steve Smith's offensive output.
In short, this game will be carried by Steve Smith - if he has a good day, Carolina is off to Detroit. If not, then it's a long winter until training camp. Either way, the outcome of this game depends squarely on him, in a way unlike any other game this postseason.