Quit my job down at the carwash
Didn't have to write no-one a good-bye note
That said, "The check's in the mail, and
I'll see you in church, and don't you ever change"
They Might Be Giants - Put your hand inside the puppet head
NFC Playoffs:
Washington Redskins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Vegas line - Tampa by 2.5)
With an almost improbable 5-game winning streak to not only close out their season, but to actually make the postseason (including a memorable 35-7 win over famed choke artist Drew Bledsoe), Washington is looking better then ever. Their offence is firing on all cylinders, as both Santana Moss and Clinton Portis are having career seasons, while QB Mark Brunell is overachieving on a weekly basis - but Tampa Bay’s offence is good too; since being embarrassed by New England (28-0), Tampa Bay has won their last two games, although not by the margin they should have. Last week, against a struggling New Orleans, Carnell Williams was barely able to get over 80 yards rushing and Chris Simms had one of his worst games of the season. Still, thanks to their close win over Washington in week 10, the vegas line is closer then it should be - once Washington silences Williams (which they should be able to do - they only allow 105 yards rushing a game), Brunell will have a great game against a struggling Tampa Bay pass defence.
Washington by 4
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (Vegas Line - NYG by 2.5)
The other NFC playoff game features a criminally-overlooked Carolina facing a question-riddled New York. The Giants, and espically Eli Manning, pose many questions for this post-season: Can Eli, unlike his brother, produce in the post-season? Will Plaxico Burress finally start playing to his potential? Will Tiki Barber burn out? It seems to me that the Giants are a team mostly relying on one player (Tiki Barber, who has been overachieving all season) that has talented players (Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Jay Feely) that are underachieving as a result - but, with all the hard work, will Tiki burn out in the postseason before the rest of the team can catch up?
Carolina, on the other hand, is a team that is completely relying on just one player - Steve Smith. They have little of a running game and their QB - Jake Dellomme - has been barely playing to his potential, getting almost all of his passing yards and Touchdowns to Smith - and once you take him away as a receiver, there’s very little else that Carolina can do.
New York by 6
AFC Playoffs:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots (Vegas Line - NE by 8)
Finally, a line I can agree with. Despite entering the postseason on a sour note (a loss to the struggling Miami Dolphins at home in week 17), the Patriots are winners of their last 3 out of 4 home games, as well as winners of their last 3 home playoff games - these guys are like the New Green Bay Packers; they're a team that is utterly unbeatable at home in the postseason. Especially against warm weather teams.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, has gone 12-4 this year in a fairly tough schedule (losing only to Denver, Indy and the St. Louis Rams), but has struggled against Houston, San Francisco and Arizona towards the end of the season - and, somehow, these wins have gave them, IMHO, more of a boost from the Vegas odds makers then they deserve.
New England by 8
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (Vegas line - Pittsburgh by 3)
Pittsburgh is the scrappy team of the season - despite losing one of their main offensive weapons (Plaxico Burress) in the off-season and having their only good Quarterback battling injury all season (Tommy Maddox is, and I can say this without hyperbole, ranking among the worst QBs in both the NFL and the CFL - and possibly among NFL Europe), they still put together a good record in a tough schedule. They have one of the best running games in the NFL right now, as well as a great defence - but have little depth in their passing game and in the QB position (if either Big Ben or Randel El get hurt, they’re in big trouble).
Cincinnati, however, has a killer offence - quite possibly the best in the league. They have a great QB in Carson Palmer, a great Running Back in Rudi Johnson and two great receivers in Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh - but have only a decent run defence and a weak secondary (allowing almost 240 passing yards a game) and their relative youth makes them almost unpredictable in the post-season. Still, they’ve gone 1-1 against the Steelers this year, including an early season win on the road - but they lost later on, in week 13, against an improved Steeler team. In the end, it’s both the Steelers experience in the post-season that gives them the edge here and the fact that all three of their Running Backs (Bettis, Parker and Haynes) are on a roll and will rack up the yardage.
Pittsburgh by 5
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