Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The new Boston Massacre

Call it the Boston Massacre, part two.

The first came some 30 years ago, when the Yankees rolled into Boston and demolished the Sox, outscoring them 42 to nine and taking the AL East lead. It directly led to the infamous Buky Dent home run and one of many Red Sox heartbreak.

The past two ALCS games have been the latest Boston Massacre.

Outscored 21 to five, and now down three games to one, the Boston Red Sox are on the verge of elimination after looking like a champion caliber team for most of the season.

After all, how many people were looking for a Boston / Los Angeles World Series? Those are two cities that are natural enemies. Sure, there’s Yankees and Red Sox… but there’s also the Lakers / Celtics rivalry, renewed this past June. And with the trading away and villainization of Manny Ramirez, it would have been a marquee match.

But that’s not going to happen now. The Phillies were too much for the Dodgers to handle and made short work of them. And Tampa Bay… Oh, Tampa, how you’ve changed. You’ve burst into Fenway and embarrassed the Sox, humiliated them. Two games, two blowouts.

Rocco Baldelli, who looked like he might retire at one point this season, has bounced back, hitting a three run homer in game three. In game four, Carl Crawford went five-for-five, and is hitting .500 in this series. The numbers are all in Tampa’s favour.

This isn’t because of a total Boston collapse, though. Indeed, in the biggest series he’s ever played in, Jason Bay is looking great: he’s hitting .400 with 4 RBI. His OPS for these playoffs is 1.268. That’s Jason being Manny: Ramirez hit .409 last year in the ALCS.

Flash forward to game five, the last home game for the Red Sox in this series. It’s a must-win for them (what series isn’t?). But they’ve got their best pitcher starting for them and the only one who has been able to hold the Rays scoreless this postseason: Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Dice-K only has a career record of two and three against the Rays, but in game one he pitched seven solid innings, striking out nine. He confused the Rays batters and held them hitless through the first six innings.

If Boston wants to advance, he’s their best bet right now. They’ve done it before… but this year? They’d be lucky if the series goes to seven games.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Attack of the moderately-effective Quarterbacks - Tuesday NFL Notebook

Jason Elam, the hero, had a day to remember. Five of six, including the game-winner from 48 yards out with no time left.

Shouldn’t have gotten that close, though. The Bears should have had that game wrapped up. The Falcons should have, too. Let me explain.

For all of its offensive heroics, the Falcons and Bears played one of the sloppiest games I’ve seen in some time on Sunday. Elam missed a chip shot that could have sealed it; Orton couldn’t score from the Atlanta 14 and they had to settle for a field goal. Both quarterbacks threw for about 300 yards, but each for only one score.

Plus the squib kick. Oh man, that squib. Worst case it costs you the game. Best case it… well, I guess it runs out the clock, but still gives the other team good field position.

And the Bears most definitely got the worst case scenario. The Falcons got the ball at their own 44, got a quick 26 yard pass in and won the game. All within six seconds.

And again, it’s something that shouldn’t have happened – the Bears shouldn’t have had so much time left on the clock, ideally. Their last drive was all passes, eight of them from the shotgun. I understand, they only had one timeout left. But you can afford to let a little time run off the clock, especially on a 3rd and 10 with under 25 seconds remaining.

Anyway. An ugly win for the Falcons, who are now four and two in a tough NFC South: Tampa Bay and Carolina have the same record, with a better point differential, and New Orleans is right behind them (more on them in a second).

They’re a team that’s succeeding because of a lack of pressure. After what the team has gone through in the past two seasons, simply going .500 would surely be a good thing. But they might yet surprise some people.

Their schedule isn’t terribly tough, with games against Philly, Oakland and St. Louis. Granted, their in-division schedule looks tough (they’ve lost two of those games already, their only losses so far), but even then, a 9-7 record doesn’t look too far out of reach – wins against the Rams, Raiders, and Eagles all seem probable and I’d be surprised if they lose all of their divisional home dates.

But in the NFC South, this might not be enough. Tampa Bay and Carolina are hot and look to complete for the division. New Orleans is good too – each of their losses is by less then a touchdown and Brees is throwing over 300 yards a game. Forget the NFC East, this is the division to watch.

That’s right, forget the NFC East. It’s a slugfest, sure (holy hell, am I going heavy with the metaphors or what). But it’s getting a little clearer. The Cowboys have lost Tony Romo for four weeks with a broken finger (doesn’t pinkie sound too informal for an injury report?) and a tough overtime loss to Arizona, their second in three games. So much for their 3-0 start. Thankfully, it comes at about as good a time as it could for the Cowboys – they face St. Louis next week and should quickly find a rhythm with their new QB in time for Tampa Bay the week after.

So it doesn’t look like they’ll miss Romo all that much. There are whispers out there that paint him as the most overrated member of the team, ahead of even Adam Jones. Is it fair to cite him for two consecutive playoff losses? Perhaps. If Dallas flails here, though, it’s more then fair to blame his absence.

Over in the AFC, the Dolphins are flipping the bird (flipper?) to the haters. they’re 2-3, but that’ll correct itself soon enough; their point differential is better then New England’s and they’ve allowed the points in the division. Forget their loss to the Texans, it was almost a fluke.

Look at the numbers instead: 19 of 25, for 284 yards. Only one turnover. There are some other, uglier numbers. Four penalties; 485 total yards allowed; a five-minute difference in time of possession. To me, this speaks of a good offence, but a bad defence – the Dolphins can score, but they kept the Texans in the game, and it bit them in the ass.

But there are some positives to take from this. Pennington has been improving each game, finding targets all over the field. They have a stable of receivers that aren’t great, but are more then capable. They have a solid running game. Five of their next six are at home. They should be posed to strike and make a run at the AFC East… but not unless they improve their defence.

Against the rush, they’re an okay team, in the top third of the league even. It’s their secondary that’s killing them: on a per-game level, you could make a case they have the worst pass defence in the NFL. Worse then Oakland and Seattle. Not much better then Detroit.

In a pass-happy division (three of the four teams are in the top half for passing yards) this can and will hurt them. Perhaps it’s why they’ve gotten the breaks they have. Still, you have got to give them a puncher’s chance – New England is going to sink in the next couple weeks, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Jets fall below the Dolphins.

Other notes: How about those New York Titans throwbacks? The Jets keep wearing them and they seem to keep winning in them: they’re 3-0 in them. The Titans themselves? They went .500 wearing them in 1960. … I was told it was a thrilling finish in Minnesota. The line score suggests it was exciting – a one point game decided at the end. Looking at the box score and the highlights, though, paint a picture of a dreadfully dull affair that picked up late in the fourth, and even then not really. Can’t the Lions do anything, including drama, right? … The Torry Holt era may be drawing to a close in St. Louis – held to 23 yards, Holt is effective mostly as a decoy now, as he draws at least a double team each game. Too bad that doesn’t count for my fantasy team.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Why the AFC East is upside-down - Tuesday NFL Notebook

Call me crazy, but from here it looks like the best team in the AFC East are the Miami Dolphins.

Sure, easy enough to say after a huge - slaughter is not too strong a word - win over New England. Easy enough to say after Ronnie Brown’s five touchdown game. And it is easy to say it, too.

Because their already tepid schedule just got a whole lot easier.

The Dolphins’ schedule is by no means completely lame – they play the suddenly surging Chargers in week five and the Broncos in week nine – but it has a few easy games: The Rams in week 13; The Texans in week six; Kansas City in week 16.

For a team that suddenly looks like it’s found it’s rhythm, those games could be huge.

Down the stretch, let’s say that Maimi has managed to keep pace with whomever is in the lead – most likely New England, or perhaps the Bills. Thanks to their early-season win over a division rival, they’ll almost have a half-step towards a playoff spot.

By beating New England like that, the Dolphins have made a statement to the other teams. They’re not the hapless fins of a year ago. Chad Pennington is throwing the ball well, Ronnie Brown is running (for now) exceptionally well – ending any controversy for who should be their featured back – and their defence, 28th in the league last year, held one of the great receiving corps to just over 150 yards and a single major.

It’s a statement. The Dolphins are back. And in a mess of an AFC East, they could just end up on top.


Speaking of the AFC East, how about those Bills?

Undefeated yes. But overrated?

Sure, they have yet to lose a game. They sit on top of their division – in wins, in points, in total yards, in defence, etc, etc. The rest of the teams in the AFC East are far, far back of them.

But I’m not sure if they’re as good as they seem so far.

For three quarters, they were outplayed by the Raiders. Their running game wasn’t getting them anywhere, and Jamarcus Russell, who looked competent in stretches, picked their pass defence apart.

Okay, that’s a lie. He was overthrowing, wildly throwing, throwing it away for most of the afternoon.

But still, the Raiders were the ones getting downfield – the Bills punted their first four possessions. Remember, going into this game the Bills were eight point favourites. But the Bills only won with a late-game rally, scoring on their last three possessions.

This is nothing new for the Bills, who had a similar comeback the week before against Jacksonville, with a 10-point fourth quarter.

This marks two comebacks for the Bills. The Bills! Remember the old line, “nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills”? Remember their history of faltering late in games?

To some extent, I’m willing to say they’ve turned a new leaf. Their point-differential is the best in the AFC East (the only positive one, at that). They’ve scored 78 points, third in their conference. And they have an easy schedule, to boot.

Normally, perhaps, they’d be a sleeper team. But in the AFC East, which is so messed up right now (I know I’ve already said that, but bear with me here), they’re hidden no more. They’re marked as one of, perhaps the, team to beat in the AFC. And of the teams to beat, they look like the most beatable.


Finally, the Chargers look like a powerhouse.

They decimated, chrewed up, ran up the score on the New York Jets, in what was admittedly a pretty uneventful game.

The Jets fell behind early and spent most of the game in catchup mode, going for fourth downs, going to two-point conversions and trying the inside kicks.

Naturally, these never seemed to work as often as Greg Esterbrook loves to say they would, but that’s life for you. Sure, you may get only a few yards each play – and need less then those on a fourth down – but not every play will work.

But enough of that.

The Chargers were the story Monday night. They roared back to life, thanks to a two-touchdown night from LT (who only had 60 yards – and an average carry of less then three). They intercepted three passes, even running one back for a touchdown early in the second quarter.

After a bad loss the week before, when Denver pulled out a tough one (with a little help from an errant whistle), this was the kind of win they needed. One where they power over their opponent – one that seemed kind of good, too. The kind of win that can mark a change in the way season is going.

One writer said after the game that if the Chargers make the playoffs, thanks should go to that referee. Perhaps. I’d mark the season change to Antonio Cromartie’s interception-return touchdown as the turning point, though – it gave San Diego a 10-point lead, and seemed to wake up the team. By the end of that half, the Chargers had a 31-14 lead and were firmly in control of the game.

It’ll be neat to see if they can keep that momentum going next week.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Broncos pull out a win with help - Monday NFL Notebook

With the score 38-31 against them, and the clock under 90 seconds, the Broncos could see their game slip away.

Quarterback Jay Cutler dropped back, rolled to his right and – horror of quarterback horrors – whiffed on the pass. He didn’t fumble the ball; it slipped out of his hands, fell to the ground and was scooped up by linebacker Tim Dobbins. The Chargers get the ball back, run out the clock, win the game.

But wait – the referee, prematurely blew his whistle, which means the ball is dead at the Charger 10-yard line.

It also means that Denver gets a second chance. It should have been a fumble, perhaps, but that’s how it sometimes goes.

Two quick passes later, it’s a one-point game. And even more prematurely then the offical’s whistle, Dick Enberg yells the game is tied and headed to overtime. Both Jay Cutler and head coach Mike Shanahan disagreed and went for two. The Broncos nailed it, on a short pass to Eddie Royal, the same man who caught the touchdown.

It’s a shame that this game will likely me better remembered for botched call then for San Diego’s comebacks from being down 21-3 early on – and 31-17 at the half.

All in all, both quarterbacks were firing on all cylinders. Cutler passed for 350 yards and for four touchdowns; Phillip Rivers for 377 and three majors. However, LeDainian Tomlinson toe was a constant bother, and he only had ten rushes, just 26 yards.

A great game, yes, but only the tip of the weekend’s matches. An overtime finish in Seattle. Aaron Rogers leads the Packers to his first comeback win. Matt Cassel wins his first pro start since high school. The Colts come back after looking dead in the water. An overall great weekend of matches.

And as the afternoon comes to a close, it raises a series of questions: What happened to Detroit? Is Aaron Rogers better then Farve? And what teams are for real – and what teams are faking?


Let’s go to Detroit first, where the Lions seem to be in self-destruct mode. At this point last season, the Lions were 2-0, Kitna had passed for 3 touchdowns and over 500 yards. Granted, they were on their way to a season where they finished 7-9, but at least they seemed like a good team at the time.

Now, they seems like a team that can’t do anything right. Not only are they 0-2, but also they’ve already allowed 82 points firmly showing that they have the worst defence in the NFL thus far. Keep in mind, only one team has allowed over 70 points and none have scored more then Green Bay’s 72 (more on that later).

This isn’t an area where they show many signs of improvement. Their defence is letting other teams dominate the clock – against Green Bay, for example, they gave up an eight-minute drive in the first quarter and had less then 25 minutes of their own.

Looking at game charts on ESPN, the Lions offense seems to have a tendency to run plays out of the shotgun set, which to my mind speaks of a lack of faith in the offensive line. I suppose the 62 total rushing yards also does, too. Remember – you need a running game, and thusly a good offensive line, to control the clock. For a team to be successful in the NFL, they must control the clock.

Granted, teams have been successful without one in the past. The Oilers of the early 1990s were one. Their Run-N-Gun offense emphasized the pass, thanks to the arm of quarterback Warren Moon. But they were a team who fell apart in the playoffs year after year: in 1991 to the Broncos, in 1992 to the Bills in a memorable collapse and finally in 1993 to the Kansas City Chiefs.

So take from that what you will – you can get to the playoffs with passing, but that’s about all.

On the other side of the game, the Packers are finding themselves in the best case scenario. Aaron Rogers, for all the talk that surrounded him, has played exceptionally well this year and is leading the team that could be the best in the conference.

Granted, they haven’t beaten anybody of substance yet – just Minnesota and Detroit, two teams that missed the playoffs last year. The big game is next week, then they play Dallas in a game already scheduled in prime time. But right now, they are the favourites for their division. Rogers looks better then Farve did all last season, and has already had a monster, 300+ yard, three touchdown game against the Lions.

It’s early – too early for me to make this call, really – but he’s looking like he can take the Packers to the playoffs. Granted, he’s in a weak division (Detroit is soft and I’m not sold on Chicago) so it’s not a really outlandish statement, but there you go.


It’s early in the season, which means that time is ripe for trickery and fakery in the standings. The Giants and Cardinals are 2-0, while Seattle is winless.

Of all these teams, the Giants are looking the most like a contender. Their defence, which has allowed just 20 points against so far, looks like the best in the NFC – even without Michael Strahan. Granted, they’ve played two fairly weak teams, the Rams and Redskins. And the bulk of the schedule is daunting: two games against Philadelphia and Dallas, an away game in Cleveland and an early bye week could all prove to be problems. But they’ve got a good opening slate, and could end up 4-0: next up for them are the freefalling Bengals and the collapsing Seahawks.

Who are themselves in a state of flux. A heartbreaking loss at home to San Francisco, where they lead 14-3 after the first but couldn’t stop a newly-high powered Niner offence, is only the latest of their woes: Hasselbeck is battling a bad back; Julius Jones is struggling to fill the hole left by Shaun Alexander; a porous secondary that allowed nearly 300 yards of passing on Sunday.

Even their vaunted home-field advantage wasn’t much help – maybe it rattled the Niners at then end of regulation, but it sure didn’t in overtime when Joe Nedney nailed his third kick of the day (he had missed only one) to win the game.

This is new for the Seahawks, who have feasted on a weak division for the last several years. Their defence, which was seventh in the NFC last year in total yards, eighth in passing yards, and second in points allowed, feasted on the weak offences of San Franscisco and St. Louis. But this year, with Arizona and the Niners looking better then they have this decade, they’re slowing down – giving the Cards a chance to catch up.

Which they finally should be doing. After a couple seasons as a trendy sleeper pick that never panned out, the Cards were an afterthought after the preseason, when Matt Lienart lost his starting job to an ancient Kurt Warner. But they’ve snuck up on unsuspecting teams – granted, two easy ones in San Franscico and Miami. But with Anquan Boldin set to build on a nine-touchdown, 850+ yard 2007 and Edgerrin James as a solid, grinding running back that can help them control the clock, they appear set to make a solid run. Finally.

Of course, all of this is barring injuries.