Friday, March 03, 2006
Shot to death at the IHOP
Long story short - A pack of drunken teens flee an IHOP after skipping the bill. Uniformed officer runs outside to stop them. The stories differ - officer says they aimed the SUV at them; kids say they were trying to get away.
Either way, one kid is dead.
We live in a society where the Police are viewed as menaces to society - hired thugs for an oppresive government; some kind of G. Gordon Liddy thug character. We say it's their fault every time that someone dies at their hands - and when the cop is the one that dies first we very rarely express the same kind of rage that we do when he fires first.
Recently an officer in Ontario was repremended for drawing a X on a Native flag - an act of overt racism. Yet to call the officer a pig, a fucking swine beast communazi shit-faced redneck motherfucker is okay - even a little passe. We can hit them, spit on them and do whatever we please; they cannot do the same.
But that's not what this is really about. This is a case of the officer doing his job; what he had previously sworn to do. He put his life on the doing his job; it's just that somebody else did too, perhaps unknowingly - he had to know that cops carried guns, though - and they lost the game.
Click. Bang - that's all it took.
But that's not the end of the story; not by a longshot. Whereas if the officer was hit, perhaps killed, by the SUV we'd express a small amount of outrage - for a few hours, anyway - this time we're going to get the bottom 0f this. This was the pig's fault; he overreacted to the situation; he should be brought to justice, dammit. And he'll get dragged over the coals for this; thrown under the bus; whatever metaphor you want - he'll have shit to pay.
Well hey - this is the 21st Century. The Goverment taps yr phone; they can check where you go on the Internet; The Smoking Man has created an illusion of Democracy to appease the masses - that's why we have Prime Time TV, NASCAR and 21 different magazine reporting on the same celebrites - right? Let's all get together and protest this horrible act; and then we can all smoke some of this fine hashish that I stole from that dumb assfuck hippie on the corner and listen to some Fitty.
Well - maybe this is it. Maybe the Police are the New Enemy.
And maybe, down in the parking lot of an IHOP an officer acted justly and rightly - but we'll never admit that. We would have ran, turned our back and just ate in peace. It's Somebody Else's Problem; never our own. But then again, we wouldn't have had the guts to face a car full of drunken teens driving right at you, aiming to kill you for no good reason at all. And we can't stand it that somebody did - the fact that someone died is secondary, really, but it sure provides a better looking piece of ground to occupy - much better then the ground we already occupy.
Thursday, March 02, 2006
More Spring - Quick hits
Thanx to the NFL and the impending 'Black Friday', I've decided to cut the fat and just make a quick line-type predictions for the rest of the MLB - I'll write up a Jays one, but that shall come later.
NL East:
NY Mets (Right team, right place)
Atlanta (NL Wild Card winner)
Philadelphia (Good, but not good enough - yet)
Washington
Florida
AL West:
Oakland (They just barely lost last year, and should be able to pull it off this year)
LA Angels (Still need more offence)
Seattle
Texas (Good team in an excellent division)
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (powerhouse team that only improved in the offseason)
Cleveland (Will be hard-pressed to match the Sox)
Detroit (!) (If they can stay healthy and the rookies their hitting and pitching should get them to .500)
Minnesota (Good pitching but little else)
KC Royals (No surprise here)
*****
Down across the border, the #1 league in America is taking a huge hit - the NFLPA and the NFL are no longer on speaking terms as talks are falling apart like a Russian car on a salted highway. Teams are preparing to cut their star players so they can fit under the new cap and the situation is "about as dire as dire can be" according to NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue. This is almost zero-hour now - will yr favorites make the cut? Already my star-running back from my fantasy team - Mr. Mike Anderson - has been cut off, as has all-around awesome guy Sam Adams; now rumors of Warrick Dunn being kicked off the Falcons offence are floating around.
Will this be a strike of NHL proportions? Will we see scab-player football? Will I have to cut up my Steelers T-shirts as Hines Ward signs with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers?
No saying - right now there's more questions then there are answers... but one thing looks all but certain - tomorrow's NFL has the potential to be a very different NFL then yesterday's...
NL East:
NY Mets (Right team, right place)
Atlanta (NL Wild Card winner)
Philadelphia (Good, but not good enough - yet)
Washington
Florida
AL West:
Oakland (They just barely lost last year, and should be able to pull it off this year)
LA Angels (Still need more offence)
Seattle
Texas (Good team in an excellent division)
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (powerhouse team that only improved in the offseason)
Cleveland (Will be hard-pressed to match the Sox)
Detroit (!) (If they can stay healthy and the rookies their hitting and pitching should get them to .500)
Minnesota (Good pitching but little else)
KC Royals (No surprise here)
*****
Down across the border, the #1 league in America is taking a huge hit - the NFLPA and the NFL are no longer on speaking terms as talks are falling apart like a Russian car on a salted highway. Teams are preparing to cut their star players so they can fit under the new cap and the situation is "about as dire as dire can be" according to NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue. This is almost zero-hour now - will yr favorites make the cut? Already my star-running back from my fantasy team - Mr. Mike Anderson - has been cut off, as has all-around awesome guy Sam Adams; now rumors of Warrick Dunn being kicked off the Falcons offence are floating around.
Will this be a strike of NHL proportions? Will we see scab-player football? Will I have to cut up my Steelers T-shirts as Hines Ward signs with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers?
No saying - right now there's more questions then there are answers... but one thing looks all but certain - tomorrow's NFL has the potential to be a very different NFL then yesterday's...
Monday, February 27, 2006
Spring, Part 2
Today - the National League Central!
Athlon – St. Louis Cardinals
USA Today – St. Louis Cardinals
My prediction – St. Louis Cardinals
Really, with this division, choosing anybody else to win would be foolish. The Cards not only have the best 1-2 pitching combo in baseball right now with Chris Carpenter (2.83 ERA, 21 wins, 213 SO, 1.06 WHIP) and Mark “Agent” Mulder (3.64 ERA, 111 SO, 1.38 WHIP) as well as one of the best hitting combos with Albert Pujols (.340 batting, 47 HR, 117 RBI, 1.039 OPS) and Jim Edmonds (.263 batting, 89 RBI, .918 OPS). And while the Cardinals have taken some key losses in free agency (Matt Morris, Mark Grudzielanek, Reggie Saunders) and retirement (Larry Walker), Tony La Russa has made a few key deals to fill those holes – if Junior Spivey doesn’t rebound, then Aaron Miles will have second base all wrapped up; Braden Looper should prove to be a key setup man for closer Jason Isringhausen (39 for 41 in saves last year). The Cards should repeat just as the Yankees do – they’ll win their division outright, but winning in the postseason might be just beyond their reach – we’ll have to wait and see.
The Milwaukee Brewers are a team that might surprise this year – they posted a .500 (81-81) season last year and are looking to improve on that. To do so, they’ve added Corey Koskie (who is looking to rebound from a season marred by a thumb injury) which should add some quality to their batting – Koskie underachieved last year with the Jays, posting a .249 Average, with just 36 RBI and a .735 OPS, the lowest of his career, but should be able to rebound from that injury. He should complement a good Brewers batting lineup that includes rookie Prince Fielder, good leadoff man Brady Clark (.306 batting, .798 OPS, 94 runs scored) and Carlos Lee (.265 batting, 114 RBI, 41 doubles, .811 OPS). And with a good rotation that features Ben Sheets (despite injuries last season, he still won 10 games, had a 3.33 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and seems posed to have a breakout season), Doug Davis (11 wins, 3.84 ERA, 208 SO, 1.30 WHIP ) and Chris Capuano (18 wins, 3.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) and a decent bullpen featuring Derrick Turnbow (who converted 39 of 43 save opportunities and posted a 1.74 ERA) the Brewers are on the cusp of breaking out in the NL west.
The Houston Astros, who were swept last year in the World Series, will need more then luck if they wish to repeat last year’s successes – Roger Clemens, whose status with the team remains questionable, is getting old, which (finally) should factor in his potential success, while Jeff Bagwell should not be allowed back to play – he’s not only too old to play at the required level, he’s too old to successfully bounce back from his surgery last year – and the Astros, as you may remember, tried to claim that he can never play in the field again. However, they do have some talent on their rotation: Both Andy Pettitte (17-9, 2.39 ERA and 1.03 WHIP) and Roy Oswalt (20-12, 2.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) are playing great while they also have two more young prospects to watch: Ezequiel Astcio (who posted a 5.67 ERA, 1.54 WHIP as a rookie in 81 innings) and Wandy Rodriguez (5.53 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a 10-10 record in his rookie season) that also have the potential to crack the rotation. They also have added some depth to their bats with Preston Wilson who posted a .261 batting average and 47 RBI in just 68 games for the Washington Nationals – but for a team that was unable to score when it mattered most (they lost the last two games of the World Series when they kept leaving base runners stranded in scoring position) this will not be enough.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are in for a big year – as long as they can keep producing like they did last year. Both Jason Bay and Chris Duffy posted great seasons in 2005, with Bay putting up some amazing numbers (he was the first Pirate to bat .300, hit at least 30 HR, 40 Doubles, 20 Stolen Bases, 100 runs and 100 RBI in the same season) while Duffy showed some great promise as a rookie last year, hitting .341 and scoring 22 times in just 39 games. After those two players, though, their offence starts to become questionable – only Jeromy Burnitz (playing as a Chicago Cub) hit more then 69 RBI last year. As for their pitching, the rotation has some young talent – including Zach Duke, who after posting an 8-2 record last year (with a 1.81 ERA and 1.20 WHIP) and Paul Maholm (2.18 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) - but still needs to recover from their horrendous team ERA of 4.42. If their number one pitcher, Oliver Perez, can improve from last season (despite an ERA of 5.85 and 1.67 WHIP he still posted 97 SO and a 7-5 record) the Pirates might have a fighting chance at the #3 spot.
The Chicago Cubs are heading in for another tough year – their hopes lie with their all-righty rotation and especially with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior getting back into their previous form. Kerry spent most of the last season injured, and only pitched 66 innings, going 3-4 (with 4.23 ERA and 1.18 WHIP) whereas Prior went 11-7 (with a 3.67 ERA in 166.2 innings with 1.21). Still, Carlos Zambrano looks to be their premier pitcher, after his fabulous (14 wins, 3.26 ERA, 202 SO, a team leading 1.15 WHIP) 2005 season, while #4 starter Greg Maddux might still have a few wins left in the tank – he leads all of the projected starters in innings pitched last year (225) and was second in SO (136), but also leads them in ERA (4.24) and posted double digit losses (13-15). Their bullpen, though, has one proven closer in Ryan Dempster (who posted a 3.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 33 saves) and should be anchored with setup men Scott Eyre (2.63 ERA, 65 SO) and Bob Howry (2.47 ERA, 48 SO). But pitching wasn’t their problem last year – and it still won’t be. They had two players last year that posted more then 90 RBI (Armis Ramirez and Derrek Lee) but had four players that posted better .300+ batting averages (Ramirez, Lee, Ronny Cedeno, Todd Walker and Matt Murton) – but, as a team, they had a .764 OPS and scored just over 700 runs – ranking 20th in the league. That is a problem that they have not fixed – and it’ll end up costing them the top spot in the division.
This year will not be kind to the Cincinnati Reds – just like the last few years. They did not change their rotation (all four of their starters had losing seasons last year, as well as ERA’s above 3.83) and were unable to settle on a closer – the closest they have is David Weathers (7-4, 3.94 ERA, 15 saves, 77.2 innings pitched, 29:61 SO/BB ratio) who is both unproven and aging (they only have one player in the bullpen younger then 35). In a year in which teams were looking for big bats, the Reds were surprisingly quiet, since they both led the league in home runs but also allowed more (A trade with the Blue Jays, for example, would have been beneficial to them). And despite having more then enough depth offensively (they had seven players on their roster that batted in more then 50 RBI, and both Adam Dunn [134 hits, 40 HR, 101 RBI, .927 OPS] and Ken Griffey Jr. [.301 batting, 148 hits, 92 RBI, .945 OPS] had great seasons) they will not be able to score enough to cover for their pitching woes.
My predictions:
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Houston
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Cincinnati
Athlon – St. Louis Cardinals
USA Today – St. Louis Cardinals
My prediction – St. Louis Cardinals
Really, with this division, choosing anybody else to win would be foolish. The Cards not only have the best 1-2 pitching combo in baseball right now with Chris Carpenter (2.83 ERA, 21 wins, 213 SO, 1.06 WHIP) and Mark “Agent” Mulder (3.64 ERA, 111 SO, 1.38 WHIP) as well as one of the best hitting combos with Albert Pujols (.340 batting, 47 HR, 117 RBI, 1.039 OPS) and Jim Edmonds (.263 batting, 89 RBI, .918 OPS). And while the Cardinals have taken some key losses in free agency (Matt Morris, Mark Grudzielanek, Reggie Saunders) and retirement (Larry Walker), Tony La Russa has made a few key deals to fill those holes – if Junior Spivey doesn’t rebound, then Aaron Miles will have second base all wrapped up; Braden Looper should prove to be a key setup man for closer Jason Isringhausen (39 for 41 in saves last year). The Cards should repeat just as the Yankees do – they’ll win their division outright, but winning in the postseason might be just beyond their reach – we’ll have to wait and see.
The Milwaukee Brewers are a team that might surprise this year – they posted a .500 (81-81) season last year and are looking to improve on that. To do so, they’ve added Corey Koskie (who is looking to rebound from a season marred by a thumb injury) which should add some quality to their batting – Koskie underachieved last year with the Jays, posting a .249 Average, with just 36 RBI and a .735 OPS, the lowest of his career, but should be able to rebound from that injury. He should complement a good Brewers batting lineup that includes rookie Prince Fielder, good leadoff man Brady Clark (.306 batting, .798 OPS, 94 runs scored) and Carlos Lee (.265 batting, 114 RBI, 41 doubles, .811 OPS). And with a good rotation that features Ben Sheets (despite injuries last season, he still won 10 games, had a 3.33 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and seems posed to have a breakout season), Doug Davis (11 wins, 3.84 ERA, 208 SO, 1.30 WHIP ) and Chris Capuano (18 wins, 3.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) and a decent bullpen featuring Derrick Turnbow (who converted 39 of 43 save opportunities and posted a 1.74 ERA) the Brewers are on the cusp of breaking out in the NL west.
The Houston Astros, who were swept last year in the World Series, will need more then luck if they wish to repeat last year’s successes – Roger Clemens, whose status with the team remains questionable, is getting old, which (finally) should factor in his potential success, while Jeff Bagwell should not be allowed back to play – he’s not only too old to play at the required level, he’s too old to successfully bounce back from his surgery last year – and the Astros, as you may remember, tried to claim that he can never play in the field again. However, they do have some talent on their rotation: Both Andy Pettitte (17-9, 2.39 ERA and 1.03 WHIP) and Roy Oswalt (20-12, 2.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) are playing great while they also have two more young prospects to watch: Ezequiel Astcio (who posted a 5.67 ERA, 1.54 WHIP as a rookie in 81 innings) and Wandy Rodriguez (5.53 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a 10-10 record in his rookie season) that also have the potential to crack the rotation. They also have added some depth to their bats with Preston Wilson who posted a .261 batting average and 47 RBI in just 68 games for the Washington Nationals – but for a team that was unable to score when it mattered most (they lost the last two games of the World Series when they kept leaving base runners stranded in scoring position) this will not be enough.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are in for a big year – as long as they can keep producing like they did last year. Both Jason Bay and Chris Duffy posted great seasons in 2005, with Bay putting up some amazing numbers (he was the first Pirate to bat .300, hit at least 30 HR, 40 Doubles, 20 Stolen Bases, 100 runs and 100 RBI in the same season) while Duffy showed some great promise as a rookie last year, hitting .341 and scoring 22 times in just 39 games. After those two players, though, their offence starts to become questionable – only Jeromy Burnitz (playing as a Chicago Cub) hit more then 69 RBI last year. As for their pitching, the rotation has some young talent – including Zach Duke, who after posting an 8-2 record last year (with a 1.81 ERA and 1.20 WHIP) and Paul Maholm (2.18 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) - but still needs to recover from their horrendous team ERA of 4.42. If their number one pitcher, Oliver Perez, can improve from last season (despite an ERA of 5.85 and 1.67 WHIP he still posted 97 SO and a 7-5 record) the Pirates might have a fighting chance at the #3 spot.
The Chicago Cubs are heading in for another tough year – their hopes lie with their all-righty rotation and especially with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior getting back into their previous form. Kerry spent most of the last season injured, and only pitched 66 innings, going 3-4 (with 4.23 ERA and 1.18 WHIP) whereas Prior went 11-7 (with a 3.67 ERA in 166.2 innings with 1.21). Still, Carlos Zambrano looks to be their premier pitcher, after his fabulous (14 wins, 3.26 ERA, 202 SO, a team leading 1.15 WHIP) 2005 season, while #4 starter Greg Maddux might still have a few wins left in the tank – he leads all of the projected starters in innings pitched last year (225) and was second in SO (136), but also leads them in ERA (4.24) and posted double digit losses (13-15). Their bullpen, though, has one proven closer in Ryan Dempster (who posted a 3.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 33 saves) and should be anchored with setup men Scott Eyre (2.63 ERA, 65 SO) and Bob Howry (2.47 ERA, 48 SO). But pitching wasn’t their problem last year – and it still won’t be. They had two players last year that posted more then 90 RBI (Armis Ramirez and Derrek Lee) but had four players that posted better .300+ batting averages (Ramirez, Lee, Ronny Cedeno, Todd Walker and Matt Murton) – but, as a team, they had a .764 OPS and scored just over 700 runs – ranking 20th in the league. That is a problem that they have not fixed – and it’ll end up costing them the top spot in the division.
This year will not be kind to the Cincinnati Reds – just like the last few years. They did not change their rotation (all four of their starters had losing seasons last year, as well as ERA’s above 3.83) and were unable to settle on a closer – the closest they have is David Weathers (7-4, 3.94 ERA, 15 saves, 77.2 innings pitched, 29:61 SO/BB ratio) who is both unproven and aging (they only have one player in the bullpen younger then 35). In a year in which teams were looking for big bats, the Reds were surprisingly quiet, since they both led the league in home runs but also allowed more (A trade with the Blue Jays, for example, would have been beneficial to them). And despite having more then enough depth offensively (they had seven players on their roster that batted in more then 50 RBI, and both Adam Dunn [134 hits, 40 HR, 101 RBI, .927 OPS] and Ken Griffey Jr. [.301 batting, 148 hits, 92 RBI, .945 OPS] had great seasons) they will not be able to score enough to cover for their pitching woes.
My predictions:
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Houston
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Cincinnati
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Spring Predictions, Day one
As I sit here, two fine sporting magazines are sitting in front of me (USA Today Sports Weekly – a magazine that I buy more often then not – and the Athlon Sports MLB Preview – which I had never heard of, nor read, ever before). Both of them are loaded with predictions, both on players and the teams. Indeed, both of them have their American League and National League predictions within – right down to the World Series and Wild Card winners.
And throughout the course of this week, I’m going to tell you where they’re wrong.
National League
Day one – National League West:
Athlon Sports #1 – San Francisco Giants
USA Today #1 – San Diego Padres
My pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are heading into this season with an overhauled roster of new players then in their disastrous 2005 season – only two players (JD Drew and Jeff Kent) are still on the team from their opening day in 2005. They’ve added several key players: one of the biggest question-marks in baseball, Nomar Garciaparra, the on-base threat of Rafael Furcal – who stole almost as many bases last year as the Dodgers did as a team - (For those of you counting, that’s two former rookie of the year players), Kenny Lofton, who batted over .300 and had a .420 slugging percentage last year and Bill Mueller, who won the 2003 AL batting title – and with the return of Eric Gagne as closer, the Dodgers could (and especially in the weak NL West division) be the team to beat – if Nomar returns to his Boston form, if Gagne can rebound from injury, if Furcal and Kenny Lofton stay to form.
The San Diego Padres, who won the divison last year, will be hard pressed to repeat their success – but they will do about as good (.500 or so) once more, thanks to the addition of prospect Adrian Gonzalez (who, in just 121 at bats, posted a .250 average and 70 RBI) the good leadoff bat of Vinny Castilla (despite a .253 batting average, he posted 66 RBI and a .403 slugging %) and Mike Piazza. Their only question is a suspect pitching staff: Once you get past their first two starters (Jake Peavy and Chris Young), the rotation is surprisingly shallow (Shawn Estes, their #3 starter, posted a 4.80 ERA in just over 120 innings last season), as is their bullpen (one injury to Trevor Hamilton and they can kiss their season goodbye).
The San Francisco Giants, who are relying on Barry Bonds to help out their batting, will struggle when Bonds spends most of the year on the IR, as the rest of their aging team will be unable to cover for his absence (they ranked next-to-last in runs scored last year and only had thee batters who posted more then 50 RBI). Their rotation will also struggle – only Noah Lowery posted an ERA of less then 4.00 last season, with 3.78. The other two are Jason Schmidt (4.40 ERA) and Matt Morris (4.11 ERA, 117 SO and 22 HR allowed – the highest on the team). Their lone bright spot will be Randy Winn, picked up last year from Seattle, who posted great number for the latter part of 2005 (.359 Batting, 1.071 OPS) – but unless Barry Bonds puts up some great stats, they’ll still rank toward the bottom of the league.
The Colorado Rockies, like last year, will once again be among the worst of the division – their rotation is weak (only two of the seven players projected to make their rotation posted a winning season last year and only one of those, Aaron Cook, didn’t also post double-digit losses), as is their scoring (Only two players posted more then 50 RBIs last year). However, they do have some young talent – they have a good two-reliever bullpen (both of whom posted more then 27 saves last year) and two good hitters in Matt Holliday (.505 slugging %, .307 batting, 87 RBI) and Todd Helton (.979 OPS, .320 average, 79 RBI) – and in a few years should prove to be a force for the NL Wild Card.
Lastly here is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who thanks to an off-season trade with Toronto have added some depth to both their rotation (former closer – and blown save leader – Miguel Batista) and to their defence (Orlando Hudson). But last year they posted a team ERA of 4.84 (third worst in the NL) and had a bullpen ERA of 5.40 – worst in the majors, plus ranking in the bottom half of runs scored in the NL. That is a problem that they haven’t tried to fix, unlike their pitching woes: In the Toronto trade, they let go of power-hitter Troy Glaus and will now have to rely on either Chad Tracy (.308 Batting, 72 RBI, .912 OPS last year) or Shawn Green (.286 batting, 73 RBI, .832 OPS) to fill his void. Their pitching woes have the potential to get worse, however, thanks to their acquisition of Orlando Hernandez (who posted a .500 season with a 5.12 ERA on the White Sox last year) and Batista (who posted a 4.10 ERA and posted 31 [out of 39] saves as the Blue Jays primary closer last year). Only Brandon Webb posted a winning season last year, going 14 and 12 (.538) with a 3.54 ERA and 172 Strikeouts. Look for either Batista or Hernandez to become trade bait, as the team looks to gain a power hitter (Manny?) at around the All-star break.
My prediction for the NL West:
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
And throughout the course of this week, I’m going to tell you where they’re wrong.
National League
Day one – National League West:
Athlon Sports #1 – San Francisco Giants
USA Today #1 – San Diego Padres
My pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are heading into this season with an overhauled roster of new players then in their disastrous 2005 season – only two players (JD Drew and Jeff Kent) are still on the team from their opening day in 2005. They’ve added several key players: one of the biggest question-marks in baseball, Nomar Garciaparra, the on-base threat of Rafael Furcal – who stole almost as many bases last year as the Dodgers did as a team - (For those of you counting, that’s two former rookie of the year players), Kenny Lofton, who batted over .300 and had a .420 slugging percentage last year and Bill Mueller, who won the 2003 AL batting title – and with the return of Eric Gagne as closer, the Dodgers could (and especially in the weak NL West division) be the team to beat – if Nomar returns to his Boston form, if Gagne can rebound from injury, if Furcal and Kenny Lofton stay to form.
The San Diego Padres, who won the divison last year, will be hard pressed to repeat their success – but they will do about as good (.500 or so) once more, thanks to the addition of prospect Adrian Gonzalez (who, in just 121 at bats, posted a .250 average and 70 RBI) the good leadoff bat of Vinny Castilla (despite a .253 batting average, he posted 66 RBI and a .403 slugging %) and Mike Piazza. Their only question is a suspect pitching staff: Once you get past their first two starters (Jake Peavy and Chris Young), the rotation is surprisingly shallow (Shawn Estes, their #3 starter, posted a 4.80 ERA in just over 120 innings last season), as is their bullpen (one injury to Trevor Hamilton and they can kiss their season goodbye).
The San Francisco Giants, who are relying on Barry Bonds to help out their batting, will struggle when Bonds spends most of the year on the IR, as the rest of their aging team will be unable to cover for his absence (they ranked next-to-last in runs scored last year and only had thee batters who posted more then 50 RBI). Their rotation will also struggle – only Noah Lowery posted an ERA of less then 4.00 last season, with 3.78. The other two are Jason Schmidt (4.40 ERA) and Matt Morris (4.11 ERA, 117 SO and 22 HR allowed – the highest on the team). Their lone bright spot will be Randy Winn, picked up last year from Seattle, who posted great number for the latter part of 2005 (.359 Batting, 1.071 OPS) – but unless Barry Bonds puts up some great stats, they’ll still rank toward the bottom of the league.
The Colorado Rockies, like last year, will once again be among the worst of the division – their rotation is weak (only two of the seven players projected to make their rotation posted a winning season last year and only one of those, Aaron Cook, didn’t also post double-digit losses), as is their scoring (Only two players posted more then 50 RBIs last year). However, they do have some young talent – they have a good two-reliever bullpen (both of whom posted more then 27 saves last year) and two good hitters in Matt Holliday (.505 slugging %, .307 batting, 87 RBI) and Todd Helton (.979 OPS, .320 average, 79 RBI) – and in a few years should prove to be a force for the NL Wild Card.
Lastly here is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who thanks to an off-season trade with Toronto have added some depth to both their rotation (former closer – and blown save leader – Miguel Batista) and to their defence (Orlando Hudson). But last year they posted a team ERA of 4.84 (third worst in the NL) and had a bullpen ERA of 5.40 – worst in the majors, plus ranking in the bottom half of runs scored in the NL. That is a problem that they haven’t tried to fix, unlike their pitching woes: In the Toronto trade, they let go of power-hitter Troy Glaus and will now have to rely on either Chad Tracy (.308 Batting, 72 RBI, .912 OPS last year) or Shawn Green (.286 batting, 73 RBI, .832 OPS) to fill his void. Their pitching woes have the potential to get worse, however, thanks to their acquisition of Orlando Hernandez (who posted a .500 season with a 5.12 ERA on the White Sox last year) and Batista (who posted a 4.10 ERA and posted 31 [out of 39] saves as the Blue Jays primary closer last year). Only Brandon Webb posted a winning season last year, going 14 and 12 (.538) with a 3.54 ERA and 172 Strikeouts. Look for either Batista or Hernandez to become trade bait, as the team looks to gain a power hitter (Manny?) at around the All-star break.
My prediction for the NL West:
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
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