Today - the National League Central!
Athlon – St. Louis Cardinals
USA Today – St. Louis Cardinals
My prediction – St. Louis Cardinals
Really, with this division, choosing anybody else to win would be foolish. The Cards not only have the best 1-2 pitching combo in baseball right now with Chris Carpenter (2.83 ERA, 21 wins, 213 SO, 1.06 WHIP) and Mark “Agent” Mulder (3.64 ERA, 111 SO, 1.38 WHIP) as well as one of the best hitting combos with Albert Pujols (.340 batting, 47 HR, 117 RBI, 1.039 OPS) and Jim Edmonds (.263 batting, 89 RBI, .918 OPS). And while the Cardinals have taken some key losses in free agency (Matt Morris, Mark Grudzielanek, Reggie Saunders) and retirement (Larry Walker), Tony La Russa has made a few key deals to fill those holes – if Junior Spivey doesn’t rebound, then Aaron Miles will have second base all wrapped up; Braden Looper should prove to be a key setup man for closer Jason Isringhausen (39 for 41 in saves last year). The Cards should repeat just as the Yankees do – they’ll win their division outright, but winning in the postseason might be just beyond their reach – we’ll have to wait and see.
The Milwaukee Brewers are a team that might surprise this year – they posted a .500 (81-81) season last year and are looking to improve on that. To do so, they’ve added Corey Koskie (who is looking to rebound from a season marred by a thumb injury) which should add some quality to their batting – Koskie underachieved last year with the Jays, posting a .249 Average, with just 36 RBI and a .735 OPS, the lowest of his career, but should be able to rebound from that injury. He should complement a good Brewers batting lineup that includes rookie Prince Fielder, good leadoff man Brady Clark (.306 batting, .798 OPS, 94 runs scored) and Carlos Lee (.265 batting, 114 RBI, 41 doubles, .811 OPS). And with a good rotation that features Ben Sheets (despite injuries last season, he still won 10 games, had a 3.33 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and seems posed to have a breakout season), Doug Davis (11 wins, 3.84 ERA, 208 SO, 1.30 WHIP ) and Chris Capuano (18 wins, 3.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) and a decent bullpen featuring Derrick Turnbow (who converted 39 of 43 save opportunities and posted a 1.74 ERA) the Brewers are on the cusp of breaking out in the NL west.
The Houston Astros, who were swept last year in the World Series, will need more then luck if they wish to repeat last year’s successes – Roger Clemens, whose status with the team remains questionable, is getting old, which (finally) should factor in his potential success, while Jeff Bagwell should not be allowed back to play – he’s not only too old to play at the required level, he’s too old to successfully bounce back from his surgery last year – and the Astros, as you may remember, tried to claim that he can never play in the field again. However, they do have some talent on their rotation: Both Andy Pettitte (17-9, 2.39 ERA and 1.03 WHIP) and Roy Oswalt (20-12, 2.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) are playing great while they also have two more young prospects to watch: Ezequiel Astcio (who posted a 5.67 ERA, 1.54 WHIP as a rookie in 81 innings) and Wandy Rodriguez (5.53 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a 10-10 record in his rookie season) that also have the potential to crack the rotation. They also have added some depth to their bats with Preston Wilson who posted a .261 batting average and 47 RBI in just 68 games for the Washington Nationals – but for a team that was unable to score when it mattered most (they lost the last two games of the World Series when they kept leaving base runners stranded in scoring position) this will not be enough.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are in for a big year – as long as they can keep producing like they did last year. Both Jason Bay and Chris Duffy posted great seasons in 2005, with Bay putting up some amazing numbers (he was the first Pirate to bat .300, hit at least 30 HR, 40 Doubles, 20 Stolen Bases, 100 runs and 100 RBI in the same season) while Duffy showed some great promise as a rookie last year, hitting .341 and scoring 22 times in just 39 games. After those two players, though, their offence starts to become questionable – only Jeromy Burnitz (playing as a Chicago Cub) hit more then 69 RBI last year. As for their pitching, the rotation has some young talent – including Zach Duke, who after posting an 8-2 record last year (with a 1.81 ERA and 1.20 WHIP) and Paul Maholm (2.18 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) - but still needs to recover from their horrendous team ERA of 4.42. If their number one pitcher, Oliver Perez, can improve from last season (despite an ERA of 5.85 and 1.67 WHIP he still posted 97 SO and a 7-5 record) the Pirates might have a fighting chance at the #3 spot.
The Chicago Cubs are heading in for another tough year – their hopes lie with their all-righty rotation and especially with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior getting back into their previous form. Kerry spent most of the last season injured, and only pitched 66 innings, going 3-4 (with 4.23 ERA and 1.18 WHIP) whereas Prior went 11-7 (with a 3.67 ERA in 166.2 innings with 1.21). Still, Carlos Zambrano looks to be their premier pitcher, after his fabulous (14 wins, 3.26 ERA, 202 SO, a team leading 1.15 WHIP) 2005 season, while #4 starter Greg Maddux might still have a few wins left in the tank – he leads all of the projected starters in innings pitched last year (225) and was second in SO (136), but also leads them in ERA (4.24) and posted double digit losses (13-15). Their bullpen, though, has one proven closer in Ryan Dempster (who posted a 3.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 33 saves) and should be anchored with setup men Scott Eyre (2.63 ERA, 65 SO) and Bob Howry (2.47 ERA, 48 SO). But pitching wasn’t their problem last year – and it still won’t be. They had two players last year that posted more then 90 RBI (Armis Ramirez and Derrek Lee) but had four players that posted better .300+ batting averages (Ramirez, Lee, Ronny Cedeno, Todd Walker and Matt Murton) – but, as a team, they had a .764 OPS and scored just over 700 runs – ranking 20th in the league. That is a problem that they have not fixed – and it’ll end up costing them the top spot in the division.
This year will not be kind to the Cincinnati Reds – just like the last few years. They did not change their rotation (all four of their starters had losing seasons last year, as well as ERA’s above 3.83) and were unable to settle on a closer – the closest they have is David Weathers (7-4, 3.94 ERA, 15 saves, 77.2 innings pitched, 29:61 SO/BB ratio) who is both unproven and aging (they only have one player in the bullpen younger then 35). In a year in which teams were looking for big bats, the Reds were surprisingly quiet, since they both led the league in home runs but also allowed more (A trade with the Blue Jays, for example, would have been beneficial to them). And despite having more then enough depth offensively (they had seven players on their roster that batted in more then 50 RBI, and both Adam Dunn [134 hits, 40 HR, 101 RBI, .927 OPS] and Ken Griffey Jr. [.301 batting, 148 hits, 92 RBI, .945 OPS] had great seasons) they will not be able to score enough to cover for their pitching woes.
My predictions:
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Houston
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Cincinnati
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