Thursday, October 05, 2006

The MVP Race - AL Edition

The American League Most Valuable Player award race has been narrowed down to three players: Derek Jeter of the New York Yankees, David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox and Justin Morneau of the Minnesota Twins. One is having a great at the plate, one is having a great season on the field and another has led his team into a fantastic run into the postseason. But only one can win the award - who's it going to be?

Derek Jeter

As far as statistics go, Derek Jeter is having a decent year. He's ranked #5 overall in on-base percentage (.414), 31st in slugging (.481) and his batting average is #3 overall (.340). But Derek's one of the reasons that the Yankees - who, as I recall, have never been lower then second in the AL East this season - stayed competitive throughout the season, even when they were decimated by injuries to key players like Matsui or Sheffield.

Unlike David Ortiz or Justin Morneau, Derek Jeter has shown that he's a catalyst for a great team - a team that came from three games back and decimated the Red Sox in Boston, then went and took a commanding 11 game lead of the AL East. And even though he's posting some not-so-great numbers in fun stats like Home Runs (14) or RBI (96), Jeter has shown that he's still a threat during his at-bats with his on-base being higher then those of both Ortiz and Morneau. If the Yankees win the World Series this year, you can be sure that Derek Jeter will have been a huge part of it.

David Ortiz

Despite falling apart during the second half of the season, Ortiz has been absolutely fantastic at the plate this year - but then again, as the Designated Hitter, he has to be. He's set the record for Home Runs hit by a Red Sox player (52 and counting), he's posted a completely unbelievable slugging percentage (.631) a great on-base (.404) and a Walk/Strikeout ratio of 0.95 - meaning he's just as likely to walk as he is to strike out (always a good thing).

But is batting simply enough? Maybe so - he kept winning games all season long for the Red Sox. Something like 11 times this year alone Ortiz had a game-winning walk-off hit. When the Red Sox were leading the AL East earlier this year, Ortiz had a big, big role. But will voters be able to overlook his team's failure in August? Does Ortiz deserve to suffer due to the collapse of players like Papelbon or Schilling? The answer is simple - no. Is he, however, more deserving then Jeter is?

No. When you take everything into effect - batting, fielding and success of their team - over this season, what David Ortiz does is cool and fun to watch... But he's not as valuable to his team as much as Jeter is to his.

Justin Morneau

The Twins are a great story this year - they roared from third place and fading up to, and on the last day of the season, they clinched the Al Central as the Tigers fell apart, blowing a seven game lead.

Justin Morneau was a big, big part of their success. He's had one of his best years to date in 2006, batting in 130 runs, having a solid on-base (.375) and having a great slugging percentage (.559 ). When the Twins came roaring back into the race (first for the AL Wild Card and finally for the AL Central pennant) Morneau was there. It started in July, when he hit for a .700+ slugging percentage and he never looked back - and neither did the Twins. The Twins first overtook the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox, then Boston Red Sox, who had led the AL east for most of the season, and finally won the AL Central, getting past the Detroit Tigers, on the last game of the season.

But, once again, is he better then Jeter? Kinda-sorta-not-really. Where Morneau's managed to out-hit Jeter in home runs, Jeter just missed the AL batting title, and had a combined OPS (on base + slugging) of .900 this year; Morneau had an OPS that was just higher, with .934. Jeter led his team through injuries to key players whereas Morneau led the Twins to a second-half surge.

Although they're pretty close, I'’m going to go with my gut here: which player would you like to play against the least? As good as Morneau is, I'’d much rather see him during a crucial at-bat then I'’d like to see Jeter. Why? I dunno, I can'’t really explain it. I know they are pretty similar in quality - but for Jeter, we know he's a good player. For Morneau... … Well, I'’m just not as sold on him - yet.

We'’ll see in 2007.

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