Sleepwalking in Seattle

Jet lag is a terrible thing. It confuses the mind and screws up the body. You get tired when you shouldn’t and find yourself awake at odd hours of the night. There’s no real way to combat it, you just have to let your body adjust and tough it out.

Hopefully, that’s what the Raptors can do on this road trip.

They opened this four-game swing to the west coast with a close win over the LA Clippers. Then came two straight losses to Portland and Seattle, the two teams with lottery picks last year.

In each of those two games the Raptors were leading fairly late in the game, and although they kept it close, they tired down the stretch and lost.

Take the Seattle game, for instance. The Raps for most of the game, until halfway thorugh the third quarter took the lead on a 6 point run. By the end of the third, they had scored 36 points and led by nine.

Once again, the Raptors made a run, scoring 15 and holding the Sonics to just two points. And a late three by Carlos Delfino would have made it a two-point game with 31 seconds left.

But he had stepped out of bounds, and the shot was reversed.

It was typical of this Raptors road trip, which has seen two leads trickle away late in the game, and another they barely held onto. And while it’d be easy to blame this on such maladies as jet lag, it’s perhaps a sign of a Raptors problem: depth.

The Raptors are missing two key players from last season’s division championship: Jorge Garbojosa, who is out for the season, and TJ Ford, whose career is rumoured to be over. And now that players such as Andrea Barngani and Chris Bosh aren’t playing well, there’s nobody on the bench who can step in and replace them.

This means that players like Kris Humphries, Delfino and Kopono are coming off the bench for major minutes and Joey Graham and Juan Dixon are suiting up.

However, give the Raps some credit. In his replacement of Ford, Jose Calderon has been great, perhaps even better then Ford. Jamario Moon has come out of seemingly nowhere to become a core part of the Raptors, showing skill at both ends of the court.

But that might not be enough to make the playoffs this year. Teams like Boston and Orlando are much, much better then last season. In the absence of Gilbert Arenas, the Wizards are staying a .500 team and can sneak up on somebody when he comes back. Both Detroit and Cleveland are obviously playing well.

While they are not likely to beat Boston, Toronto needs to start beating teams like Seattle, Washington and Milwaukee if they want to see the postseason again.

Of course, beating New Orleans, San Antonio or Houston would be nice, too.

Call it a late Christmas present.

Or an early taste of late April.

Mark's BCS Bowl Selections

It’ll be announced later today, but this is what the BCS should look like.

By staying idle, and getting a few lucky breaks, Ohio State was able to reclaim the number one ranking in the country. Likewise, LSU was able to launch themselves to the number two spot thanks to a big win and some luck. They should now meet in the BCS title game.

This means that both the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl will get an extra at-large bid. Let’s look at the Rose Bowl first, since Ohio State was ranked number one.

The Rose Bowl is supposed to take the winners of the Pac-10 and the Big 10 divisions. The winner of the Pac-10 was USC, so they get in – and since Ohio can’t, the Rose Bowl gets to choose from an at-large team. For my at-large selections, I went by the AP Top 25, which is what I expect the BCS Rankings to look like.

I suspect they’ll choose Oklahoma, the number 3 ranked team in the country.

The Sugar Bowl is supposed to get the winner of the SEC, but LSU is likely going to the BCS game. Therefore, they get to choose an at-large team – but after the Rose Bowl choose theirs. I think they’ll take the number four team in the country, Georgia. They get to choose another at-large team but go last, since the game is so far from the BCS game. They’ll take Hawaii, who should be left by then.

Let’s go to the Orange Bowl. They get the winner of the ACC and an at-large team. This means that they get Virginia Tech, who won on Saturday, and get the first choice of an at-large, since they’re so close to the BCS. I think they’ll take Missouri.

Finally, the last major bowl game: the Fiesta Bowl. They get the winner of the Big 12 conference and an at-large team. Kansas won the Big 12, so they’re in and I suspect that for an at-large team they’ll choose Florida, the number nine-ranked team in the country.

Just to recap, here are my bowl selections:

Rose Bowl: Oklahoma vs USC
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Hawaii
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas vs Florida
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Missouri
BCS Title Game: Ohio State vs LSU

How did Miami get like this? NFL week 13

It’s too soon to call, but this could be an end of an era.

I’m not speaking about Brett Farve, who went down last night with elbow and shoulder injuries, but about the Miami Dolphins.

There has not been a team to go winless in the NFL since 1978, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to lose something like 22 games in a row, leaving a legacy of futility that has since been approached by just a scant few.

But that was then, before the age of parity. Now, it’s the age of “any given Sunday”, when any team can beat any other.

Look at the standings in the NFL right now and ask yourself how Miami is supposed to happen. In this age of parity, no one team is supposed to go and dominate – or be dominated. That’s why there are so many teams that are 5-6 or 6-5.

It’s partially why no team has gone undefeated and partially why no team has gone winless.

So why are the Dolphins so bad? What is making their team fall apart the way it is?

Well, it’s a dastardly mix of bad planning and bad play with a few lumps of bad luck mixed in.

In 2005, when San Diego put Drew Brees after he suffered a major injury on the open market, the Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints where the two frontrunners.

The Saints got Brees, the Dolphins went with another injured QB who was looking to rebound: Dante Culpepper, who had basically destroyed his knee the season before.

Brees went on to throw for 26 touchdowns, over 4000 yards and for a QB rating of 96.2, his second highest ever, winning comeback player of the year in the process.

Culpepper spent most of the season on the bench as he recovered, playing just four games before fleeing for Oakland. In those, he threw for two touchdowns, a little over 900 yards, by far his lowest totals ever.

By passing on Brees, the Dolphins missed out on a great quarterback and still have issues at the position.

Even this year, it’s impact can still be felt. When Culpepper left, the Dolphins jumped on a trade for Chief’s QB Trent Green, a player who was the odd man out in Kansas City and was supposedly a few days away from being on waivers.

Sure, the Dolphins could have waited and missed out. But by jumping on the trade, one that cost them a fifth round pick, they committed themselves to a 37 year old QB who was coming off a catastrophic concussion.

And, to put it lightly, he was a spectacular failure at QB, passing for five touchdowns and seven interceptions while losing his first four games before suffering another, possibly career-ending concussion.

So, the onus for winning then fell almost squarely on the quarterback, a young man named Cleo Lemon. For five games, he played poorly. Despite throwing for over 1,000 yards and for three touchdowns, he was picked off four times, sacked 10 and completed just 58 per cent of his passes.

The man who replaced Lemon, John Beck, has been even less remarkable, completing just above 50 per cent of his passes and has yet to throw a touchdown.

However, it would be unfair to blame the quarterbacks for this season.

After all, Green wasn’t the only Dolphin to suffer an injury. Running back Ronnie Brown, the lone bright spot for the Dolphins, tore his ACL in October. His replacements, Lorenzo Booker, Patrick Cobbs and Jesse Chatman have all been unremarkable, with just two touchdowns between them since week seven.

Ricky Williams, who could have stepped into Miami and helped to take some of the load away from the receivers and quarterback, was injured in his first game and is gone for the season.

Even the receiving corps for the Dolphins has been depleted. Current team leader in receiving yards, Chris Chambers, was traded to San Diego on October 16 (so, after being away from the Dolphins for over an month, he’s still the leader).

Nobody has emerged as a clear number one receiver for the Dolphins since. While Marty Booker has approached Chambers numbers, he has yet to reach the end zone since week seven or the 400 yard mark.

However, the Dolphins have had some success this season. Kicker Jay Feely has missed only field goals all season. And their defence isn’t too bad, either.

In yards per game, the Dolphins are 16th overall – ahead of Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland, teams that are still competing for a playoff spot. They’re third overall in passing yards allowed – ahead of New England, even.

But against the run, they stink – they’re 30th overall. And they’ve had 277 points scored against them, 27th in the league.

As they head into the last few weeks of the season, the Dolphins have a serious chance of running the table, and finishing without a win. They still have to face both the Patriots and the Bills on the road, and have a home game against the Ravens.

They also have to play the Bengals and the Jets, too. If they are going to get a win, look for it to come against either of these teams.

And look for the Patriots game on week 16. Never before has a team with 15 wins played a team zero wins.

Shakedown on Bay Street

“Pretty soon now, will be a quitter.

Pretty soon now, I will be bitter.

You can't see it 'til it's finished.”
- Talking Heads, Artists Only

There’s trouble brewing in the downtown, and it’s not pretty. The Leafs are a team in trouble. On the ice, they’re underachieving and losing whatever steam they had fast.

Granted, they managed to not just beat, but to shut out, Ottawa, one of the best teams in the NHL. But they followed that up with two bad losses, one to Dallas on Friday and one to Phoenix on Saturday.

But you know what? That’s not even the worst part of it.

Not that I want to sound like an apologist, but both Dallas and Phoenix are good teams. The Stars are second in the West right now and the recent addition of Ilya Bryzgalov has put Phoenix in position to make a playoff run.

No, it’s their front office that’s in shambles right now. It’s a power struggle, the classic end-game scenario that plays out every so often.

Right now, John Ferguson Jr. is blaming Paul Maurice for the Leafs problems and tried to fire him over it. But Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment overruled him. Maurice is a company guy, somebody they brought up through the ranks. Remember, he’s only a few years removed from coaching the Marlies.

No, it’s JFJ who seems to be on the firing line, and with good reason. During his term as GM for the Leafs, he has overseen numerous great deals that have helped to push the Leafs to just above .500.

Deals that have seen first round picks fly away. Deals that have brought in such star players as Mark Bell. Deals that have seen valued prospects – such as current Bruins goalie Tukka Rask – leave, replaced by people who aren’t playing up to par.

Deals that have seen the Leafs fall from the playoffs, and into the cellar.

Perhaps they learn their lesson a bit late, but MLSE does learn. And when they do, they take out on the GM, sometimes cruelly.

This is what they did to Ron Babcock not too long ago. The then-GM of the Toronto Raptors, Babcock was first stripped of his power, and then marginalized and terminated when the Raptors brought in Wayne Embry.

Babcock has since disappeared from the ranks of General Managers in the NBA.

So, is this what it happening with JFJ right now? Are the Leafs preparing to ‘clean house’?

While on one hand, it certainly looks like it.

But on the other, why should they do it now? Who else is there to replace him?

The Raptors managed to secure Bryan Colangelo from Phoenix, a stroke of genius, when the Suns cut him loose.

But there are no Colangelos on the horizon in the NHL. The best-qualified candidate was rumoured to be Scotty Bowman, who was widely said to have rejected the offer right up.

Also rumored are Mark Messier, Steve Yzerman or Ron Francis, all of whom have exactly zero experience as a GM.

Would they do any better? Maybe. They have no experience, but Garth Snow has done a good job without any in New York.

Does that mean that the Leafs should change GMs in the middle of the season?

Yes.

The Leafs need a shakeup, and firing JFJ is less disruptive then firing Maurice, who remains a capable coach. After all, JFJ has had numerous chances to prove himself as a GM but has yet to succeed.

It’s time for a change in Toronto. End power struggle now, before it derails the team’s season any further.

Out for blood - NFL Week 12

Ok, so it’s official. Tom Brady, Bill Belicheck, et al are out for blood. And why shouldn’t they be – they’ve been slighted, been called cheaters, been called poor sports – mercy me, they ran up the score.

But you know, that’s what they do. Winners don’t go out and play to the level of their opponents; they go out and play as hard as they can, day in and day out.

That’s why the Montreal Canadiens won all those games in the late 1970s. That’s why nobody could handle Michael Jordan and the Bulls in 1997.

That’s why the Steelers lost last week and it’s also why nobody can stop the Patriots now.

For too long, Tom Brady has been told he’s a great quarterback – just as good as Payton Manning, perhaps. Receivers looked great when they played with him, not the other way around. And often enough, those same receivers would not look as good on another team.

Okay, so maybe it’s the system Brady plays under. Maybe it’s the coaching.

But maybe it’s because Brady is so good, he lifts those around him.

It would explain this season. Randy Moss came to New England looking like he was washed up, traded away for a draft pick.

While stranded in Oakland for two years, he had just 11 touchdowns and a little over 1,500 yards recieving.

This season alone, he has over 1,000 yards receiving and 16 Touchdowns.

This is what Brady can do with some talent around him. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that players like Deion Branch are untalented – but Brady has never had a singular talent like Moss. Thanks to him, the Patriots have the league’s best offence.

Just this year alone, it’s averaging over 430 yards a game – 300 of them passing - and have over 400 points, leading the league. These are both improvements from last year.

But that’s only half of the game. The Patriots defence has also played exceptionally well. They’re third in points allowed (270), fourth in points allowed per game (15.7) an within the top ten for rushing and passing yards allowed.

They’re getting the job done. They shut down the other team, often early in games. But most importantly – they never give up.

And why should they? After all, they’re out for blood.

How the Argos lost - Notes on the 07 East Final

Nobody thought it would end like this – but nobody foresaw the Argonaut’s fingers seemingly coated in butter, either.
Yes, the Toronto Argonauts, who entered the playoffs winning their last seven games in a row, lost decisively to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in a game marred by turnovers – some three on each side.
As the fourth quarter started, with the Bombers inside the Argo 10 yard line, it looked as if the Bombers were going to try and wrap things up. After all, they led 19 – 1; the game was theirs to lose.
But when Bomber QB Kevin Glenn hurt his arm in the fourth while diving on a loose ball, the momentum shifted, significantly, to the battered Argos.
One monster pass to Arlen Bruce III later, and the game, the Argos and even the fans, roared back to life.
Michael Bishop showed off his powerful throwing arm, driving the Argos some 92 yards to their first touchdown of the game with some long, precise passes, capped off with his own quarterback sneak for the major.
As reserve quarterback Ryan Dinwiddie came in for the Bombers, the Argo fans were on their feet and screaming.
It seemed a lot like the inverse of the last Eastern Final played in the Rogers Centre in 2005. In that game, the Argos led throughout the first half, only to collapse to Montreal – and in particular, to QB Anthony Calvillo – in the second, losing 33-17.
“All of a sudden, this isn’t the Rogers Centre - this is the noise dome,” said CBC’s Steve Armitage.
But Dinwiddie pulled it out. Airing the ball, and running down the clock, he wore down the Toronto defence with long passes. A touchdown pass to Edwards sealed the victory for the Bombers.
Or did it? The ref on the field had to check it out – and then went to the booth for a review. And it was overturned.
And then the Argos grabbed another fumble in their own end.
“Are you kidding me,” shouted CBC’s colour commentator Khari Jones. “That’s their third fumble today!
“They should be blowing the Argos out!”
But Toronto’s ball-handling woes continued, as their receivers dropped passes that would have brought the Argos deep into Winnipeg territory.
Winnipeg’s smothering defence kept the Argos out of the game, clogging the secondary and keeping Bishop under pressure – including a huge sack late in the fourth.
It was an incomplete pass, late in the fourth that sealed it – although, with less then two minutes to play, what could the Argos have done? They would have needed a touchdown, then a field goal – just to tie.
Nonetheless, the Bombers prevailed. They limited the Argos to just 31 rushing yards and keeping the Argo offense smothered, like a heavy blanket put on a fire, for three quarters.
“We played them well all year,” said Winnipeg running back Charles Roberts.
“We took it upon ourselves to come out here and prove them wrong.”
And so, what an upset it was. The Bombers were seven underdogs going into this game, but they played like 14 point favourites. They ran the ball, they passed the ball and they, most importantly, stopped the Argos from doing likewise.
Simply put, they played like champs.
And in the end, that was the only thing that mattered.

One month in and still sleeping - NFL week 5

sleeper – (n): A football team that makes beats teams favored against them on a regular basis, eventually doing better then they were expected to do

See, by definition neither the Rams nor the 49ers were sleepers. They had more people on their bandwagon by the start of September then some teams get all year. Stephen Jackson, Alex Smith, Frank Gore and Marc Bulger were all supposed to fantasy studs and were supposed to make the NFC West the best conference in the league.

Well, shit. Jackson’s hurt, as is Bulger and any of the Rams hopes for the postseason. Down by the bay, Gore has underachieved, Alex Smith is gone for the year and very suddenly Dante Culpepper looks dangerous.

But this is not about him, them or the Raiders. This is about who the sleepers – the true sleepers – really are.

And Tennessee looks like one. They’re 2-1, have a sharp QB and LenDale White is starting to come into his own. Remember, he’s the guy who was platooned with Reggie Bush at USC – the thunder to the lightning.

They’re also coming off a bye week and facing a Atlanta team that’s nothing if hot: they’re ranked 23 in points scored and 21 in points allowed. Granted, Atlanta pulled out a win against a decent Houston team… but so what, nobody goes 0-16.

But teams do go 1-4 every year. And the Falcons, who can’t stop the run – 129 yards a game, 23rd in the league – will be joining that club, too.

Another sleeper? How about Tampa Bay? For a team that nobody gave a chance – and rightly so: they’re barely any different then last years 4-12 team – they’re looking sharp, to the tune of 3-1.

But, with a tip of the hat to Bill Simmons, this could be a Zack Morris team. In that, like the guy who played Zack, they peak too early (after his stint on NYPD Blue, whatever happened to that guy?). Cadillac Williams is hurt and gone for the season. Their QB? Jeff “Two TD in four games” Garcia.

However, they play in the NFC South, as I’m sure everybody knows. And I’m sure everybody knows that they’ll play the Saints twice, the Falcons twice and Carolina once more. And I’m sure that everybody knows that they’ll play such powerhouses as Washington, San Francisco and Houston later on.

And although their 3-1 is misleading since wins against the Rams, Saints should be taken with a grain of salt, this team still has a fighting chance.

But what about the Cardinals, I can hear. Even my dad is calling them now, sending emails titled “what about them Cards?”
Well, what about them? The last-place predictions that they got from ESPN, Athlon and SI? Does that qualify them as a sleeper?

Yeah, maybe, since those predictions have turned out to be pretty accurate. Why, in just a month they’ve gone from 23 to 15 in the ESPN power rankings. Still, I suppose, that’s not all bad: they’re above both the Niners and the Rams, and being just above the fold can still make them a sleeper, I guess.

But I don’t feel right calling them a sleeper.

Perhaps it’s because they’re a team that never loses outright. Against San Francisco and Baltimore, they lost by three points each time. They can keep it close, that’s a given, but can they actually overtake another team?

Even their wins seem odd. Their win against Seattle was a fluke, when Mike Holmgren apparently suffering from temporary paralysis and not calling a timeout on the final drive, letting the clock expire as the Cards kicked a field goal.

And against Pittsburgh, the Cards had a coach who set up the Steelers offence all of last year – who needs videotape when you have friends like that?

Anyway, we’ll know by week six if this team is for real: this week they play the hapless Rams and then the Panthers, who haven’t realized you can throw the ball to anybody who doesn’t line up as a lineman – not just Steve Smith.

Just go for it, already!

I’ve been a reader and a fan of Gregg Easterbrook for a long time now, mostly because he advocates a style of football that I agree with. Namely, a logical version that works all the time in Madden, most of the time in real life and is used rarely if ever in the professional level.

(I also like how when I finish a column of his, an entire morning has vanished, I’ve found out about at least one neat news item I overlooked and I feel about 50 IQ points smarter…)

One of the pillars of his style of football is that on a 4th and short you go for it almost all of the time (ie, not stuck inside your own 30 yard line). It makes sense, since most running plays net you about 3 or 4 yards.

And that’s what the Broncos did on Sunday afternoon. Twice, actually. It was late in the final quarter, Denver had a fourth and two and they went for it. And it worked. Three downs later, they faced the same situation – and a quick pass netted them another first down, keeping their final drive alive and setting up a game winning field goal.

Of course, if they had gone for it on a fourth down (and shorter then either of the fourth downs they went for) instead of kicking (and missing) with about 3:30 left in the fourth, they never would have had to put together such a drive.

(But then again, had they done that, I wouldn’t have a column.)

It was nice, refreshing and kind of exciting to see a team do this, too. The Broncos proved that going for it on a fourth down works, but it’s a lesson that I’m afraid isn’t going to catch on in the NFL, in the NCAA or even in high school. Sure, they got the first down (and a few extra yards) people will argue, but what if they had been stopped? What then, Mr. Reads that Commie Pinko on ESPN.com?

Well, coaching is a job where you’re expected to take some risks. The day you decide that you’re not going to risk anything, that the fear of failing is bigger then the allure of winning, is the day you wake up, realizing that you’re coaching a community college team in Idaho.

As a bit of an afterthought, is it just me or does Gus Johnson have maybe the best resume in recent sports broadcasting memory? First it was the Vermont/Syracuse game. Then it was UCLA/Gonzaga. And then Ohio State/Xavier. Most recently, this Denver/Buffalo game. I wonder what’s next.

Strictly Classified

Maybe it’s just me - and I’m sure it is - but I’ve always been a fan of the classified section of the newspaper. People selling items, all summarily described, to complete strangers. Great buys and items you may not see anywhere else. And a lot of junk.

Anyway, I recently clipped a few items that I felt needed to be shared - maybe somebody out there can make an offer, or two.

WANTED: “Are you an Argo-nut who can throw the ball? We’re looking for you! Must bring own helmet, shoulder pads - balls and recivers will be supplied. No Vicks. Call M. Clemens, KL5-0901”

FOR SALE: “Give this Priest a Home. One Running back, hardly used since 2005, some minor upper damage, 1500 yard potential. Must pay shipping, health insurance. Call H. Edwards, KC9-2121”

FOR SALE: “Duck seeks new pond. Goaltender, like new, great potential. Doesn’t speak English, must supply own translator/mask. MUST SELL. B. Berke, AN9-0011”

WANTED: “Gamble on us! Does your TV station have a hole to fill? Is poker too boring for your viewers? Do you remember a guy named Gretzky? Take a chance on us ! Call us today! G. Bettman, NH3-09123”

PERSONAL: “Are you down tonight? Do you need a clutch tray, a buzzer-beating jumpshot? Or is Spike Lee not excited enough anymore? Give me a call - I’ll be waiting! R. Miller - IN3-9943”

FOR SALE: “One dog ‘mating’ stand. Barely used. Serious inquires only. M. Vick, LS7-0909

Pistol - A review

Pistol: The Life of Pete Maravich by Mark Kriegel

My rating: 4 of 5 stars


There’s a line in Mark Kriegel’s book “Pistol” that does a good job of summarizing Pete Maravich’s life, and the book, quite nicely - “I don’t want to play 10 years in the NBA and die of a heart attack at 40.”

Instead, he died of a heart defect at 40, after playing in the NBA for almost 10 years.

“Pistol” is not so much a biography as it is a study on passion and obsession and how the two can be confused. At it’s core it’s about how much a father, in this case Press Maravich, can drive his son into greatness and tragedy. Into a legend, although one marred by tragedy.

To me, the way Pete Maravich was described reminded me of Pete Rose. Rose took a one-time criticism from his father on not running out a groundball into a career known as Charlie Hustle, much in the same way that Press’ love for basketball led to the devotion that Pete poured into it, devoting his life to the game. However, Rose got off lightly compared to Maravich, who almost all of his life playing the game, almost never getting the respect he deserved, at least not until his career had finished.

“Pistol” covers not just the life of Pete, but also that of Press. The book opens with a young Press, stuck with no future in a Pennsylvania steel town (where the sky was colored a flaming orange by the factories, notes Kriegel) discovers a way out - basketball, a game which he takes to almost immediately. The book was surely not off the mark when it says that Press mistook the game for salvation - it would dominate the rest of his life.

From there the book covers Press’ exploits in the early days of professional basketball and the first few years of what to become his pastime, coaching. By the time that Pete was a small child, Press was coaching his just as much (and perhaps more) then he was with his team, the NC State Wolfpack.

Here, the book goes into great detail, from newspaper clippings to interviews with people who were around, into this period of Pete’s life, when he was almost forced into basketball, practicing for hours a day, right up to during his teenage years. It was here, on the basketball court, that Pete found what he was craving all along - affection, from the fans who loved seeing his flashy moves and passes.

The book does a great job of covering both the highs (His 68 point game against the Knicks, his record setting performances at LSU) and the lows (his knee injury, LSU’s collapse in the 1970 NIT) of his career, as well as the interesting dynamic of Press and Pete’s relationship, and how it changed over the years.

It goes on, later, describing the aftermath of his NBA career - his depression, his spiritual rebirth as a born-again Christian, and eventually, his early death (on a basketball court, fittingly).

Overall, “Pistol” is an interesting book - it paints a picture of Pete as a tragic and often depressed superstar, and does a very good job of it. It’s meticulously researched (there’s even a large list of footnotes and references included) and very well written, although it does compare Pete to another flawed legend, Joe Namath (who, by the way, was the subject of another book written by Mark Kriegel) on a regular basis.

It’s definitely worth a read.

The Saga of Maid Marion - Wimbledon '07

It was surprise upset, a victory out of left field - but if it’s remembered for anything, it will be the loser, not the winner.

The 2007 Ladies Wimbledon championship was a grueling match under a hot English sun, with both Venus Williams and Marion Bartoli getting hurt. It was also one of the least expected match ups in any recent Grand Slam tournament.

Both players faced hard roads to this final and neither player was expected to make as far as the semi-finals, let alone win the championship. Williams faced a young, fiesty and unranked Russian named Alla Kudryavtseva in the first round, nearly losing in a dramatic match. Later on she faced a #2 seeded Maria Sharapova, upsetting her in the process.

Bartoli, on the other hand, went a different route. She not only upset both the #1 and #3 seeds (Justine Henin and Jelena Jankovic, respectively), but had to come from behind in each match as well! The Frenchwoman quickly went from being virtually unknown to a fan favorite among the crowds at Wimbledon, who did The Wave in support and cheered her during stoppages in play, dubbing her “Maid Marion”.

The final match started off a bit slow, with Williams taking a quick 3-0 set lead, but Bartoli battled back, eventually tying her at 4 sets apiece. However, William’s game was too fast for Bartoli, forcing her to run back and forth all game just to keep up.

This eventually was too much for Bartoli to bare. By the second set she was visibly fatigued and looking sluggish. Before long the running was getting to her - she had to call for a trainer: all the running had created a large and open blister on her foot.

However, this method of play also proved to be too much for Williams as well. During the same injury time-out, she also called for a trainer to deal with a sore thigh. And despite a wrapping for it, she looked hurt and finished the game despite a visible limp.

She limped, in fact, all the way to the Venus Rosewater Dish, winning in just two sets - 6-4, 6-1, ending the match with a blisteringly fast ace that hit Bartoli. Williams is now the fourth player to have won Wimbledon four times, joining such tennis legends as Billy Jean-King, Steffi Graf and Martina Natrilova.

Granted, Williams never looked to be in trouble. Marion started off with some sloppy play, such as her double faulting a number of times, and was never able to get the ball past Williams with much success.

In a world where seemingly every Men’s final is Federer vs. Nadel, it was refreshing to see a tournament that was as wide open as this years Wimbledon. Bartoli was seeded #17 going into the tournament, while Williams was #23. And while this win cemented Williams as one of the greats, it also thrust Bartoli into the spotlight.

Who knows what Maid Marion will come up with next?

Why 350 means everything

Even if it doesn’t seem like it, 350 is a very important number.

By winning his 350th game on Monday, Roger Clemens joined one of the most elite clubs in baseball history - one so elite that it has had just 7 other members over a century.

So elite that he’s the first new member since 1965 and the only one still alive.

So that win is a very big deal. Especially when you consider that only one other active pitcher, Greg Maddux, is even close to him - and Maddux benefited from pitching in the National League, never having to face the DH and never pitched in cozy Fenway Park - something that Clemens did for good portions of his career.

It’s an even bigger deal when you look at today’s top pitchers. Unlike home runs, where it’s not uncommon for a leader to hit 40, even 50 in a season, wins keep going down and down.

With the modern specialization of pitching, it is doubtful that we will ever see a 350 game winner from today’s crop. Last season, for example, we didn’t even have a pitcher who won at least 20 games for the first time since 1995. In the last 10 seasons, we haven’t had a pitcher win more then 24 games.

However, we have seen a player hit 72 home runs in one season.

Could any of today’s pitchers ever hit 350 wins? The closest are Greg Maddux, who has already 340 wins, and Tom Glavine, at 297. Both of those pitchers are nearing the end of their careers (they’re both 41) and are unlikely to catch Clemens. There’s only one active pitcher who is under 40 and has close to 300 wins - Mike Mussina, who has 243 - at the age of 38.

But what about today’s young, fresh pitchers? Well, let’s take last season’s top pitcher for the American League: Cheng-Ming Wang. Wang, who won 19 games for the Yankees at the age of 26, has a total of 27 wins coming into this season. For him to get to 350 wins, he would have to have 18 seasons of at least 19 wins. Then, when he’ll be 44 years old, he’ll just hit 350 wins . To ask him to be that good, for that long, is just not a possibility.

So, if this is the final season for Clemens, 350 wins looks like the cherry on top of the sundae of his career. It adds to his resume as the greatest pitcher of his generation, and perhaps the greatest pitcher of all time. Sure, he has a reputation as a hired gun, going where the money is. He’s even burned some bridges behind him, in Boston, Toronto, Houston and arguably in New York.

Were he somebody else, this could be a fatal flaw.

But this isn‘t somebody else; this is somebody who‘s career reads like a wish list for pitching. From the seven Cy Young awards, his multiple times leading the league in wins and ERA to his World Series rings, his career is the gold standard that pitchers will be judged against in the future. By every definition he is a hall of fame player - there are far, far lesser players in the hall of fame.

But still, those accomplishments can be repeated. A pitcher wins the Cy Young and a team wins the World Series every season. It’s possible to win 20 games in a season or to have back to back Cy Youngs.

However, 350 is still a very large number, and is one we may never see again - hence it's importance.

What's wrong with Venus Williams?

If it seems like an odd question to ask, that’s because it almost is, since she just won her first round match.

But, at the same time, it was a match that she was supposed to win and almost didn’t, even looking like she couldn’t at times. Williams was making unforced errors all throughout her match against Alla Kudryavtseva, and had to grind her way out of a 6-2, 2-0 hole early on.

And, by the end of match, it didn’t look so much as Williams won, but that Kudyavtseva lost it, in more ways then one.

About halfway through the third set, with the match tied 4-4, an unknown spectator yelled “Out” on a close shot. Kudryavtseva, believing it to have come from an official, stopped playing and allowed Williams to take a lead.

This was the beginning of the end for Kudryavtseva, whose frustration overcame her fantastic start to this match. By the end of the match, she was slamming her racket into the grass, and as the ESPN commentators noted, looked to be holding back tears.

It was a fitting end, however, to match that was simply electric. By it’s end, the stands were full, the restaurant reduced to standing room only, as everybody that could tried to get a view of court #2, watching to see what would happen.

So, then, what is wrong with Venus? In a match where she should have dominated - this was Kudryavtseva’s first Wimbledon match - she let herself get behind early and never dominated like she used to, despite ample chances.

Perhaps she’s getting too old. Tennis, especially women’s tennis, is a young persons game, and Venus turned 27 just a few days ago. Her opponent, on the other hand, just turned 19 this year. Can she keep up? She’s definitely past her prime; it’s been almost five years since she was ranked #1.

Perhaps we’re simply overrating her. Yes, she’s a three-time winner of Wimbledon, she hasn’t made it past the third round since 2005. In fact, she hasn’t won a tournament since then. Are we judging her on her past merits, not on her current play?

However old or overrated as she may be, she’s still a threat. She showed that by battling back against Kudryavtseva, forcing a third set and eventually overcoming her.

Still, this match showed both the good and the bad of her game. It showed that she still has the grit and determination of a winner, but it also showed that her play is getting increasingly sloppy, as she made unforced errors in the double digits in two of the three sets she played.

So, maybe nothing is wrong with her. For a player seeded #23 and who is 27 years old, she seems to be about right where she should be.

Just don’t expect her to win.

The Leafs-Habs Rivalry is dead

‘The Toronto/Montreal rivalry is dead … the Maple Leafs have killed it”
- Ken Dryden, The Game


Well, maybe he’s right.

For all the hype and the excitement that Saturday’s game may have around it – it all depends on who wins and who loses tonight and tomorrow – this game has as little to do with the famous Toronto vs Montreal rivalry as it does any two teams playing for a spot.

Toronto this year keeps reminding me of New Jersey, circa 1988. They’re a team that’s playing well above its head, is winning games they shouldn’t be – and is losing games they shouldn’t be, either. Oddly like the Devils that year, the Leafs are a team that only has a couple scoring threats. The Devils had Pat Verbeek and Kirk Muller, the Leafs have Mats Sundin and Darcy Tucker.

The 1988 version of the Devils was a team that was in the same situation that Toronto was in. While they had a lackluster year, towards the end of the season they made a run for the playoffs that went right down to a climatic game in Chicago that they had to win; a tie wasn’t enough.

And they did win, too, in overtime. From there the Devils had a wildly successful playoff run, upsetting the Islanders in six games and the Capitals in seven, before they lost to the Boston Bruins in seven games.

Too many times this year the Leafs have choked away leads, be it against Buffalo or Pittsburgh. They’re a team that is winning mostly because Andrew Raycroft, and their fans are quick to vilify him.

When the Leafs work – I’m not sure if play is appropriate here – a goalie as often as they have Raycroft, it’s safe to assume that it’d wear him down. Raycroft has never lost this many games in one season, but he has never won this many either. His minutes in net is more then double what it was last year and his save % is under .900.

And most of the Leafs fans I know don’t like him. They have the real deal, Justin Pogge, waiting in the wings. Raycroft, even if he gets them into the playoffs, is still a stopgap. He’s the bridge between Belfour and Pogge, like how Steve Penny was between Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy.

This is why Felix Potvin left Toronto. This is why Toronto won’t win the Cup this year.

If Toronto wins against Montreal, they may end up with the #8 seed. From there they’d face Buffalo. Then maybe the Sens, or maybe the Penguins. Perhaps the Rangers.

Either way, these are teams that are much better then Montreal is right now.

So yes, this is a big game.

But the rivalry is dead.

Cherry's time has come

Don Cherry is a buffoon, a loudmouth and a relic from a bygone era.

Don’t think this is some kind of backhanded compliment; it isn’t.

For almost as long as he’s been on CBC’s presentation of Hockey Night In Canada, Cherry’s shtick is that he’s an opinionated loudmouth with some fairly popular views on hockey. Which is true: when he was at his peak, Cherry was one of the better analysts out there.

But, as the cliché goes, that was then and this is now.

No longer do any of his comments hold much weight. When asked about fighting in the NHL, his answer isn’t one of intelligence. It’s an insult, a sarcastic reply to anybody who has the gonads to question Don ‘n’ Ron.

Last Saturday, Don’s answer to the reniewed question of hockey violence was to show a 16-year old clip (From a playoff game between Los Angeles and Edmonton, I believe) where he was dressed as a character, sarcastically mocking anybody who thought hockey didn’t belong in the game.

In the midst of a huge playoff race in the East, Don’t main concern was that fighting, that aspect of the game that he loves so much, was going to be taken out. Instead of making any kind of argument, Cherry just showed off his new tie, adorned with doves, “The new mascot of the NHL”.

Again, a sarcastic comment that adds nothing to the debate.

It almost seems that all year, Cherry’s Coaches Corner segments have less and less to do with hockey, and are increasingly just a place where Cherry feels he can talk about whatever. Lately, he’s been on a Support The Troops kick, showing off ties, hats and car accessories bearing that slogan. It’s nice that he cares about the soldiers overseas, but he’s doing this during a hockey telecast.

Think about how silly it would be if any other famous figure started acting in the same way. If John Madden wore an oversized earring and mocked anybody who called football too violent during a pregame segment. If Tim McCarver started hawking Support The Troops hats during baseball telecasts. If Reggie Miller said that Europeans shouldn’t be playing basketball during a halftime show.

I doubt they’d be keeping their jobs.

And why Cherry’s keeping his is beyond me.

The right thing to do with Pete Rose

In an interview on ESPN Radio on Wednesday, former Reds player and manager Pete Rose once again admitted that he bet on baseball on a daily basis.

Yes, he only bet on them to win, which is different, and yet the same, as just betting on baseball.

He also said in the interview that he longer cares about being in the hall of fame.

While this may be true, just as how he claims his betting record is true. In it’s own way, it doesn’t matter. He’s just looking to get reinstated and the question of him in the hall of fame will come up once again.

And, truth be told, Pete Rose should be in the Baseball Hall Of Fame.

Getting elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame should have little, if anything, to do with a player’s actions off the field. In the past it was never a problem, as players like Ty Cobb and Mickey Mantle were elected without any debate on their off-field activites.

After all, Cobb bragged that he once killed a man, was a violent racist and was alleged to have thrown a game (although that was never proven). Mickey Mantle was an alcoholic womanizer who was banned from baseball for associating with gambling in 1983 (he was reinstated in 1985). And despite these character issues, they were allowed in the Hall of Fame.

While’s the argument that what Pete Rose did was bad for the game, I’m not going to refute it. It’s true, betting on your own team has no place in sports.

However, how were his actions any worse then those of other Hall of Famers? Gaylord Perry’s illegal spitball pitch was successful enough to get him to Cooperstown.

How is betting on baseball any worse then using amphetamines, which are now banned by Major League Baseball? I would argue that it’s not, and perhaps even less. Yet players have used them since the 1970s, and numerous Hall of Fame members, such as Hank Aaron, used them.

Of course, there is a world of difference between taking drugs and betting on baseball: drugs only affect the play of yourself, for example, where betting would affect the play of an entire team.

However, at the end of the day, it has yet to be proven that Pete Rose bet on games as a player, and we only have his word, for whatever little it’s worth, that he bet on the Reds to win. Ten years ago, he said that he never bet on baseball at all. And in ten years, maybe he’ll admit to have bet on his Reds to lose.

Either way, it’s irrelevant when it comes to him being in the hall of fame. As a player – not as a manager – Pete Rose was very good, perhaps one of the greatest. And even despite his gambling, any mistakes he made as a manager should not have any impact on his playing career.

So put him in the Hall of Fame and let the Reds retire his number. Mention his 4000 hits and mention his gambling addictions. Let him on the field to witness the ceremony and never let him back. It’s the right thing to do.

Hockey headgear needs a revolution

With all the talk lately over hitting to the head and it’s legality, the NHL is in a bit of a quandary. It is indeed a rough – and sometimes even violent – game but taking hitting out of it would be a step backwards, both for the players and the fans.

But at the same time, players are getting hurt, often seriously. In a game on Feb. 21, Sabres forward Tim Connolly was forced to leave after taking a hit to the head against the Senators – he’s now on the injured reserve. Calgary defenceman Richie Regehr has been out since December 28th with “concussion like symptoms”. Just by looking through the NHL injury report on tsn.ca, there are 11 players listed as suffering from them.

And the NHL is going to have to do something about it.

But what can the league do about it? You can’t outlaw hitting in a game that’s often fast and violent. You can’t police what is and what isn’t a headshot because it’s often impossible to separate what is and isn’t an intentional hit to the head.

So what can the league do?

One would be to enforce rules already in place, and perhaps bolster them with more rules.

Players are already required to wear helmets and have been since 1979. But there are no rules regarding their chinstraps. When players take a big hit, like Connolly did against Ottawa, and have not fastened their strap, their helmet is very likely to pop off – just like Connolly’s did, leaving his head to hit the ice.

If there was a rule in place that forced players to wear their straps up, it is not hard to see head-related injuries go down, if only because their helmets will be hitting the ice, not their head. The NFL has adopted a rule like this – in that league, all players have to have their straps buckled at the snap.

It’s not a rule that would be hard to enforce – all a referee would have to do is look around before a face-off at the players.

Another change should be to the helmets worn by players. Yes, the ones worn now are better then ones worn in years past and are better then nothing at all but they could be a lot better.

A couple years back, Riddell introduced their line of Revolution football helmets. By making a few changes to the average football helmet – such as “form-fitting” padding and extending it to cover the chin – they can cut the risk of a hit giving a player a concussion.

Why can’t somebody make a helmet like this for the NHL? There is no helmet on the market today that has anything similar to the Riddell Revolution helmet for hockey – although Riddell does make a Revolution model for lacrosse. Why can’t they adapt one for hockey use?

Essentially, it would be an impossible task to rid the NHL of concussions and still have the game resembling anything that is interesting (after all, how many people watch professional ringette?) to fans.

However, it would be easy for the NHL to greatly reduce the risk players would face if they just force players to strap their helmets and if they look into better designed helmets.

Who's more valuable to their team? A quick look at Hockey Sabermetrics

This morning I was wondering which player is more valuable to his team: The player whose point total is through the roof? The player who scores the most goals? Or is it the player who has the highest +/- rating?

And thanks to a book I just picked up, I might have the answer.

In a seminal – and, for some reason, out of print – book on hockey and hockey statistics called “The Klein and Reif hockey compendium”, the authors Klein and Reif use a fairly simple method to get a players “true” +/- rating.

The main problem with counting goals or points is that it just measures the offensive output of a player – it says nothing of his two-way play. Goals for are just as, if not less, important as goals against are.

So the stat of Plus/Minus should be good, right?

But it’s not – it’s a good indicator, like using OPS for baseball, but it means almost nothing. A good player on a bad team can have a plus/minus in the toilet – and a bad player on a good team can have a great +/-.

So this is where Team Adjusted +/- (TA+/-) comes into play – it takes all goals scored (and goals scored against) by the team and filters out power-play goals, giving you what the team’s plus minus is. The formula is fairly simple: Team even-strength/shorthanded goals (Goals for – PPG) minus the even-strength goals for (total allowed minus PPG allowed).

Then, to get a player average, you divide by five (five skaters per side, right?)

So what does this mean? It’s easy – it shows what the average player on that team would have for a plus/minus. This, in effect, allows you adjust any player’s +/- so you can compare them equally.

All you have to do is subtract the player’s +/- from the TA+/- to get their adjusted +/- (PA+/-).

And there you go – an equal way to compare hockey player’s +/- without worrying about their team’s overall quality.

So how does this mean anything to anybody?

Let’s say I wanted to solve the question I posed above – which kind of player is better to their team? Would it be the point leader (Sidney Crosby, with 83 points)? Would be the goal leader (Vincent Lecavalier, with 35 goals)? Or would be it the regular +/- leader (Nicklas Lindstrom, with a +36 rating)?

Let’s work with the numbers, then. Here are the goals for each team.



Conversely, here’s what their goals against look like - Remember, the numbers go Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Detroit
Goals Allowed: 116 172 137
PP goals allowed:58 49 50
Even Strength Allowed Goals: 108 123 87

Now, here’s each teams adjusted +/- rating:
Even Strength Goals: 119 117 129
Even Strength Allowed Goals: 108 123 87
Adjusted Team +/- rating (AT+/-): +11 -6 +42

Now, remembering to divide by five, so we get a player average:
Raw AT+/-: +11 -6 +42
Average Adjusted Player +/- :+2.2 -1.2 8.4

So the average adjusted player +/- for Pittsburgh is 2, for Tampa Bay it's -1 and for Detroit it's +8.

So what does this mean? Simple: That’s the average +/- for any player on that team. We now can use that to adjust the raw +/- for any player. So, to go back to our original three players, we can just check their numbers by subtracting the average from their +/-:

So here, the numbers go: Sidney Crosby, Vincent Lecavalier and Nicklas Lindstrom
Regular +/-: +13 +6 +36
Average Adjusted Player: +/- +2 -1 +8
Player Adjusted +/-: +11 +7 +28

So, by looking at this – by seeing how much better a player is then his team’s average +/- and how important they are to the team - we can see three things: Crosby’s two-way play is a little overrated, Lecavalier’s two-way is a little underrated and Lindstrom, while playing on a team that inflates his +/- by a considerable margin, is still really good.

So there you go – Yes, Lindstrom is the most valuable of the three, since his two-way play (or perhaps just his defense skill) worth about 28 more points then the average player on Detroit.

Once again, thanks to the team of Klein and Reif for their formula here. It's a bit of a shame that they're not doing this anymore.

Tell your QB rating to shut up, Rex

It’s a Friday night, the Super Bowl is something like 72 hours away and I still cannot make up my mind about who is going to win. Will Payton Manning find a way past maybe the best defence in the NFL? Will the Colts find a way to shut down another great team with a great tandem of halfbacks?

More importantly – will Rex Grossman find a way to shut up his critics?

He enters this 41st Super Bowl game as maybe the most criticized starting quarterback since Joe Nameth. He has been chided on all sides for his inconstant play all season lone – from his infamous game against the Vikings on week 13 (1.3 QB rating, 31 completion percentage, 34 yards passing) to a brilliant game against the Giants on week 10 (3 TD, 246 yards, 105.7 rating).

Yes, he’s not the best QB in the league (not even close, I’ll admit). His play in the playoffs has been, well, spotty – two touchdowns in two games, only competing half of his passes, etc). But you know what? I believe in him.

And why shouldn’t I believe in him? It’s not a matter of him being good or bad – that doesn’t matter. He doesn’t need to be good to win games – just like he’s proven all year long. He has been exceptionally good this season and he’s been exceptionally bad this season – and still, the Bears won 13 games in the regular season and two more in the playoffs. Sure, he’s not as good as Payton Manning – but when his team is as good as it is, he doesn’t need to be (although, imagine if he was – what a team that would be, eh?).

Right now, Chicago is leading all teams in rushing yards per game (158) and points per game (33). While Indianapolis does have a good rush defence, they also allowed a big rushing day against New England – a team who’s running game is nowhere near as good as Chicago’s. Despite having a big advantage, statistically, over New England (they held the ball for more five more minutes, had almost twice as many first downs and had over 100 more yards offensively) they just squeaked out a win.

And that was against a team that finished the season tied with them (12-4) and scored almost 100 points less then them (New England scored 385 points, Indianapolis 427).

The Bears won more games (13-3), scored just as many points (427) and allowed more then 100 points less against them (255) then the Colts – clearly they’re just as good, if not better… So why are they seven point underdogs to a team that just barely beat New England?

I have no idea.

And that’s why I’m taking the Bears to win Super Bowl XLI.

Was it worth it? - Thoughts on the AFC Championship

The Colts / Patriots game on Sunday was the reason why we have channels like ESPN Classic. A roller coaster ride doesn't even begin to describe that game - even a fan like me, who happens to have a strong dislike of both teams (In Payton's case, this dislike evolves into hatred) was enticed by this game: It surely will rank as one of the best games in NFL history.

For a season that has been inconsistent and, well, weird all year long, this was strangely fitting.. The Colts AFC season ended with them finally making it to a Super Bowl by beating one of their biggest rivals (although they still can't get by the Steelers - not in 1995, not last year…) in New England, although it was at home.

And yet this game left me feeling angry on some level - it was almost infuriating to see Payton being unable to look on the field during the final drive, keeping his head under a towel. It gave me flashbacks to Roger Clemens in the 1986 World Series, with what Bill Simmons once described as a “What now” face…

But then it was over, and Payton, for once, was happy in January.

And it seemed to fit - for one of the most oddball seasons that I can remember, one of the most oddball endings more or less ended it: Payton Manning, the hero of a Colts/Pats playoff and Tom Brady not being able to pull off a final drive.

Still, what a way to end the year.

Championship weekend - It's gunna be a showdown

It was an outcome that should have been obvious from the start – If indeed the Indianapolis Colts are to go to the Super Bowl, they would only have to go through their old nemesis the New England Patriots.

This whole season kind of makes sense now.

With both AFC teams upsetting their opponents last week – neither home team won – the stage is now set for what appears to be one of the biggest games in recent memory. The Colts, despite having a great offense, could barely manage to score last week and won by the skin of their teeth; conversely, the Patriots did score, coming back from being down 21-14 late in the game, and upsetting a team with maybe the best offense in the NFL.

It’ll be a showdown in Indy on Sunday – and for once, maybe the Colts will have the upper hand.

“Bad dreamer, what's your name
Looks like we're ridin' on the same train
Looks as through there'll be more pain
There's gonna be a Showdown”
ELO - Showdown


AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Sez: Colts (+3)

This will be the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs in recent memory. Both of those games were losses for the Colts – but both teams are in different stages now. The Patriots are in arguably their worst shape in years, having lost major contributors, from coordinators Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini to players like David Givens, Doug Gabriel and – and arguably most important – their clutch kicker Adam Vinitari.

You can see how losing key players such as those has effected the Patriots offense this season – Since posting close to 600 offensive yards (5722) and averaging 27 points per game in 2004 (their last Super Bowl win), their offense has dropped: just over 5600 yards/23 points per game in 2005 and 5300 yards/24 points per game this season.

Defensively, however, they have improved: for example, their yards allowed (on a per game basis) has dropped from 310 in 2004 to 330 last season – but has rose to 294 this year, the same as Chicago’s mighty defence allows. They rush defence has improved as well, going from 98 yards a game in 2004 to 94 yards this year (much better then Chicago). And against the pass they’ve gone from 212 yards/game to 200 – which could prove to be a hassle to the Colts, who are still a pass heavy team.

Speaking of the Colts, they are actually much better team then the one that lost to the Patriots on 2004. This year, with both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne posting big numbers – Wayne has caught 9 TD this year and is averaging 15 yards a catch while Harrison has caught 12 touchdowns (second in the league) and is averaging 14 yards a catch – their offense is one of the most productive in the NFL (3rd in yards per game, 2nd in points per game and 2nd in passing yards).

But while both of their major receivers have caught for more then 1300 yards (Harrison is ranked #2 in the NFL, while Wayne is tied for third), their running game is lacking behind (18th in the NFL with just 110 yards per game).

It’s pretty much for that reason alone that I’m going to back the Patriots. Even though the Colts are at home; even though the Colts are playing much better; even though the Colts are the 3 point favorites… They are still playing the Patriots in January.

My pick: New England

*************************

NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Vegas sez: Chicago (+ 2)

The Bears defence has been great this year – perhaps even superb, especially when it covers for Rex Grossman’s occasional bad game – and their offense isn’t too bad, either, ranking 15th in both total yards and rushing yards, thanks to the duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. Their passing game is somewhat better, ranking 14th, explaining why they score 26 points/game (higher then New Orleans, actually).

Which isn’t to say that New Orleans isn’t any good – they very much are. But while they have a great offense (they have the most total yards, most passing yards and are fifth in points scored per game), defensively they’re weak. They rank ranking 15th in total yards allowed (4917), 23rd in rushing yards allowed (2063) and 13th in points allowed per game (20.1). If they have one bright spot on their defense, it’s against the pass – they rank 3rd overall, with 174 yards a game.

Still, against a Chicago team that is more dangerous because of a powerhouse defense and a solid running game, the Saints have a bit of a chance – but not a big one. The Bears will win this one and play in their first Super Bowl since 1985.

My pick: The Bears

Romo and the Boys / NFL Divisional predictions

Stat of the Week No. 3: From the point Tony Romo was named to the Pro Bowl, Dallas lost all remaining games.
- Greg Esterbrook, ESPN.com, Jan. 9, 2007

As Tony Romo attempted to scramble into the end zone, the Cowboys season flashed before my eyes. I saw Drew Bledsoe choking; I saw Terrell Owens denying that he attempted suicide; I saw Keyshawn Johnson leaving under a cloud; I saw Tony Romo show flashes of brilliance between his flashes of incompetence.

And as he couldn’t make it into the end zone… Well, frankly, I wasn’t surprised. It seemed so typical of the Cowboys this year – to get so close, but finish just oh-so-short.

From their regular season when Bledsoe went down for the count and a young hotshot named Tony Romo, who despite having been in the NFL for a few years (could it be three already?) had never having taken a snap, came in and was fairly solid – even though my main memory will be of him making a pass that looked quite like Magic’s hook shot in game four of the ’87 Finals – and became something of a golden boy, a savior to a Cowboys team that looked ready to sink at any given moment.

And he saved them from sinking, at least for a little while. From the spats that coach Parcells had with Terrell Owens and Mike Vanderjact to a starting QB (Bledsoe) and one of their major off-season signings (Vanderjact) not working out to TO being, well, himself, it looked as if the Cowboys were going to have hard time going .500, at least for a while.

When Romo took over in week 6 the Cowboys were 3-2. In his next start, facing the Giants, the Cowboys lost – and then Romo started to click. He, and the Cowboys, won the next five out of six games. With him at the helm, the Cowboys went on a tear, cumulating with a 38-10 demolition of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where Romo threw for 5 touchdowns and over 300 yards.

But, looking back, that seems to be just where both he and Cowboys peaked. The next week, against the Giants, the Cowboys just squeeked past them, winning on a last second field goal; and while Romo passed for over 250 yards, he didn’t pass for a single TD and was picked off twice.

The next week the Cowboys lost to New Orleans, 42-17. Romo was picked off twice again and completed less then half his passes.

For all of his early wins, since that win over the Giants, Romo has passed for six touchdowns and has been picked off eight times. He’s lost more games then he’s won since he was named to the NFL Pro Bowl – and lost 3 of his last four games this season.

So, what does all this mean? Is Romo really that good – or is he really that much of a goat? I’m not sure, at least not yet. I do know, however, that any Cowboy fan can thank Romo for getting the Cowboys to the playoffs just as much as they can thank him for their early exit.

*********

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions:

NFC
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
My pick: The Saints

If there’s one thing that I’m sure about these days, it’s that I wouldn’t want to be coaching a team that’s on the road against a team like the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have won 5 out of 8 games at home this year. However, they have lost two of their last three at home (their last win being on December 3rd, over San Francisco). Still, they have a great offence (391 yards per game, 25.8 points per game) that’s facing a defence that allows over 320 yards and over 20 points a game. Even with all of the question marks that the Saints have, I just can’t see the Eagles upsetting them, even if the Eagles were at home.

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
My pick: Dah Bears

And speaking of teams that are good at home, we have the Chicago Bears and their frozen Soldier Field vs. the Seahawks. Normally I’d go with the Bears just because of their home-field advantage and their defence. However, Rex Grossman, who has been looking better and better as the season goes on (his week 13 performance notwithstanding) is facing a Seattle defence that is, well, less then stellar. He’ll need a big game to beat the Seahawks, but I expect he’ll come through.

AFC
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
My pick: The Colts

This is the first time that the Colts have been to Baltimore to play a postseason game in years – not since they left the city, in fact – and they won’t disappoint. For all of their question marks coming into the postseason – their run defence, for example – they have looked very good, especially in their shutdown of the Kansas City Chiefs last week. This is a trend that I expect to continue, as they should wallop the Ravens. Why? The Ravens are a team that’s been led by Steve McNair, who while rebounding from his last few seasons is still no match for the Colts defence. And as for their defence, led by Ray Lewis, the Colts are again more then a match – The Colts lead the AFC in yards per game (379) and are second in points per game (26). Receivers Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison have looked good lately (especially Harrison, who had six touchdown catches in his last three regular season games).

New England Patriots @ San Deigo Chargers
My pick: The Chargers

The Chargers are the mirror image of the Colts; they rank second in yards per game (365) and first in points per game (30). And they have the best player in the NFL, LaDainian Tomlinson, doing most of it: he runs for touchdowns, he catches for touchdowns – he even throws for touchdowns. Thanks to him, the Chargers have only lost two games – by a combined six points. The Patriots will have to pretty much focus their entire defence on LT to stop him – and by doing so, they open the door for quarterback Drew Rivers, who has thrown for 22 touchdowns this year, and Antonio Gates, who has caught nine of them. It’ll be tough to keep the Chargers from running away with this game, and I’m sure that Tom Brady will be more then game for it. He comes into this game having one of he better seasons: yardage is down, but his completion percentage is up. And he’s facing a defence that allows over 200 passing yards a game. Regardless, I think that San Diego will be able to eke this one out. However, it’ll be close.

Wild Card Weekend

The resignation of Bill Cower is the end of an era for the Steelers, and it’s the end of an era for me. Bill was the one coach of the Steelers that I can remember, the guy who was there in 1995 during a thriller in Indy… The guy who was there for the Kordell Stewart Era, the guy who was there during heartbreaking losses in 2003 and 2004 – and he was the guy who was there when they finally won it all least year, too.

Sure, this season’s been a bust (I like to call it a transition period – Bettis and Randel El are gone and Big Ben had maybe the unluckiest season of any starting QB this decade), but it was still good. So, Bill, thanks for the memories and best luck with whatever comes next.


With that out of the way, the NFL playoffs are upon us once again – which means that it’s time to get out of New England’s way again (especially since they have home field this year) and that the countdown is on for Colts fans to start sulking. And with that, here’s my predictions for Wild Card Weekend!

NFC
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks
My pick: Seahawks

The Seahawks, despite more then enough injuries to it’s starters (Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck) has still managed not just to make the postseason, but to win their division (the admittedly weak NFC West), meaning they’ll be playing at home against a reeling Dallas squad. Tony Romo, Dallas’s QB, will be forced to play much better then he has in his last few games, and I don’t think that he’s up to the task. The Seahawks will take this one pretty easily.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
My pick: Eagles

The Giants have all but stumbled into the postseason this year, having peaked weeks ago – they’ve lost six of the last eight – and have a locker room that’s full of dispute. With all the destructions thats been happening – from Tiki’s retirement, Eli’s recent shortcomings to Plaxico calling out people in the locker room – the Giants are in a huge mess right now.

However, the Eagles are succeeding when they shouldn’t be – their QB, Jeff Garcia, has been a superb replacement for an injured Donovan McNabb, and their running game is looking pretty sharp. Look for them to win a close one over New York.

AFC
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
My pick: Patriots

Seriously – have the Pats ever lost at home in the playoffs? To a team that only made the playoffs thanks to a nice late-season run (and also to a few losses from some other teams)? No – and it’s going to continue. Last week, in a game that meant nothing to them, they decimated the Titans – a team, that for all intents and purposes is about the same as the Jets are.

The Jets don’t have much of a running game – maybe in a few years, when Leon Washington matures – and their passing game relies on Chad Pennington. Not something I’d want to have on my side when facing a great Pat’s defense. This is a game that the Pats will win easily.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
My pick: The Colts

Even though they’ve been less then stellar the last few weeks, the Colts are still a legitimate threat – Marvin Harrison has had several great games in a row now, netting six touchdowns in his last three games (including three against Cincinnati in week 15). And while their run defence hasn’t been great, Manning and Harrison should do the job nicely.

As for the Chiefs, while Larry Johnson has been good this year, he’s still not at the same level as he was last year. And while they can run the ball well, passing and defence aren’t their strong suits. The Colts will win a close one.