Thursday, October 04, 2007

One month in and still sleeping - NFL week 5

sleeper – (n): A football team that makes beats teams favored against them on a regular basis, eventually doing better then they were expected to do

See, by definition neither the Rams nor the 49ers were sleepers. They had more people on their bandwagon by the start of September then some teams get all year. Stephen Jackson, Alex Smith, Frank Gore and Marc Bulger were all supposed to fantasy studs and were supposed to make the NFC West the best conference in the league.

Well, shit. Jackson’s hurt, as is Bulger and any of the Rams hopes for the postseason. Down by the bay, Gore has underachieved, Alex Smith is gone for the year and very suddenly Dante Culpepper looks dangerous.

But this is not about him, them or the Raiders. This is about who the sleepers – the true sleepers – really are.

And Tennessee looks like one. They’re 2-1, have a sharp QB and LenDale White is starting to come into his own. Remember, he’s the guy who was platooned with Reggie Bush at USC – the thunder to the lightning.

They’re also coming off a bye week and facing a Atlanta team that’s nothing if hot: they’re ranked 23 in points scored and 21 in points allowed. Granted, Atlanta pulled out a win against a decent Houston team… but so what, nobody goes 0-16.

But teams do go 1-4 every year. And the Falcons, who can’t stop the run – 129 yards a game, 23rd in the league – will be joining that club, too.

Another sleeper? How about Tampa Bay? For a team that nobody gave a chance – and rightly so: they’re barely any different then last years 4-12 team – they’re looking sharp, to the tune of 3-1.

But, with a tip of the hat to Bill Simmons, this could be a Zack Morris team. In that, like the guy who played Zack, they peak too early (after his stint on NYPD Blue, whatever happened to that guy?). Cadillac Williams is hurt and gone for the season. Their QB? Jeff “Two TD in four games” Garcia.

However, they play in the NFC South, as I’m sure everybody knows. And I’m sure everybody knows that they’ll play the Saints twice, the Falcons twice and Carolina once more. And I’m sure that everybody knows that they’ll play such powerhouses as Washington, San Francisco and Houston later on.

And although their 3-1 is misleading since wins against the Rams, Saints should be taken with a grain of salt, this team still has a fighting chance.

But what about the Cardinals, I can hear. Even my dad is calling them now, sending emails titled “what about them Cards?”
Well, what about them? The last-place predictions that they got from ESPN, Athlon and SI? Does that qualify them as a sleeper?

Yeah, maybe, since those predictions have turned out to be pretty accurate. Why, in just a month they’ve gone from 23 to 15 in the ESPN power rankings. Still, I suppose, that’s not all bad: they’re above both the Niners and the Rams, and being just above the fold can still make them a sleeper, I guess.

But I don’t feel right calling them a sleeper.

Perhaps it’s because they’re a team that never loses outright. Against San Francisco and Baltimore, they lost by three points each time. They can keep it close, that’s a given, but can they actually overtake another team?

Even their wins seem odd. Their win against Seattle was a fluke, when Mike Holmgren apparently suffering from temporary paralysis and not calling a timeout on the final drive, letting the clock expire as the Cards kicked a field goal.

And against Pittsburgh, the Cards had a coach who set up the Steelers offence all of last year – who needs videotape when you have friends like that?

Anyway, we’ll know by week six if this team is for real: this week they play the hapless Rams and then the Panthers, who haven’t realized you can throw the ball to anybody who doesn’t line up as a lineman – not just Steve Smith.